查理-芒格在Daily Journal（每日新闻）的年度股东大会上发言稿（无删减）2023

北京时间2月16日凌晨2时，对巴菲特产生巨大影响的投资巨擘查理·芒格身着一件黑色西装，带着一瓶可口可乐和一些饼干，出席了Daily Journal年度股东大会。

这位99岁的“先知”曾是Daily Journal的董事长，去年卸任了该职位，但今年仍然到场回答了全球投资者的热情提问。话题从ChatGPT到美国通胀、高利率，从提高幸福感的方法到对比亚迪、阿里、特斯拉等知名公司投资的探讨，芒格为我们呈现了一堂精彩绝伦的人生课程。

今年芒格聊到了更多中国话题，关于其投资阿里巴巴、比亚迪等的相关问题，芒格对此的回复是，“我认为阿里巴巴是世界上最好的公司之一”；“比亚迪的价格已经不便宜，但它今年可能有50%以上的业绩增长”，并透露，他对比亚迪转向电动车方向产生了比较大的影响。

精彩观点

• 1. 投资中国可以让你用便宜的价格买到一些更好的公司。
• 2. 比亚迪是我最喜欢的一只股票，我对比亚迪转向电动车方向产生了比较大的影响。
• 3. 我仍认为阿里巴巴是最好的公司之一，仓位调整是因为此前用了一些杠杆。
• 4. 人工智能（如ChatGPT）非常重要，甚至不可或缺，但难以实现很多疯狂的想法，比如不会治疗癌症。
• 5. 马斯克是个非常不同寻常的人，除了比亚迪，没有公司能比特斯拉做的更好。
• 6. 持有伯克希尔20年以上的投资人，一定会有不错的回报。
• 7. 芒格分享长寿秘诀：喜欢吃花生酱糖、很少去刻意锻炼。
• 8. 人类文明对我们的要求本就不高：要对自己和他人做出切合实际的期望，而延迟满足让成功的几率更大。
• 9. 理性是最好的品质，如果你不疯狂的话，你已经可以比95%的人做得好了。

整理版精彩访谈

我不会卖出Daily Journal，现在不是疯狂估价的好时候

提问：一年前，Steven Myhill-Jones(斯蒂文·梅希尔-琼斯)被任命为《每日日报》（Daily Journal）的临时CEO，他什么时候会转为常任CEO？

查理·芒格：当我们需要改变的时候就会改变。在今年，我们会给大家公布我们的决定。

斯蒂文·梅希尔-琼斯：在之前，我就跟查理说过，我是愿意投入精力到我们公司运营的。虽然我目前是临时CEO，但我也愿意做一位常任CEO的。

提问：您在去年曾谈到Daily Journal产生了足够多的现金，那么接下来您会怎样使用这笔资金，或者说会进行怎样的资产配置？

查理·芒格：我们是挣了很多的钱，仅法拍潮期间就超过了3000万美元的收入。在法庭上诉这个环节，我们出版行业早先是具有信息垄断地位的,但目前这一情势急转直下了，没有之前那么风光了，很多报纸企业都失去了往日的优势，资产大幅缩水，这是让人难以相信的变化，然而这就是科技进步带来的必然结果。所以，我们选择了和有技术背景的斯蒂文合作，希望Daily Journal的科技板块在他的带领下有出色的表现。

现在的美国法庭还有很多基础性复杂的工作，这需要很多自动化、现代化的技术去完成，所以这个市场是非常巨大的。但这个过程又是很缓慢的，因为有很多官僚主义涉及其中。

提问：Daily Journal会如何应对自动化进程中的这些挑战，比如官僚主义？

查理·芒格：我们知道，一些软件公司的寿命一般也就持续几年。斯蒂文，你会怎么应对这些风险？

斯蒂文·梅希尔-琼斯：我觉得我们现在的这个业务模式是非常好的，尽管我没有办法保证我们的软件业务一定能够生效，但我确实是有一些经验。我觉得我们关键的任务就是让我们的技术给客户提供更多的服务，从而帮助他们尽快的完成工作，因此我们要做好规划，技术要不断地升级跟上时代的变化。

提问：在2021年的Daily Journal股东会时，公司的股票价格是350美元左右，现在是300美元，要比之前低很多。那么，现在您会买一些Daily Journal的股票吗？

查理·芒格：我不买也不卖。买股票要考虑实际的情况，我们现在的估值并不疯狂，现在还不是疯狂估价的好时候。

我现在已经99岁了，回过头看，很多公司在初期时股价上涨得非常快，就像伯克希尔，当体量大了后，涨速慢了很正常。

Daily Journal是迷你版的伯克希尔，卖出股票要交很多税，我倾向长期持有

提问：您提到了伯克希尔，最新持仓显示公司重仓了很多银行股，为什么会有这样的配置？

查理·芒格：在我们早期挣了很多钱的时候，我们买了银行股，那时的股息基本上是没有税的。但现在我们处在一个不正常的环境下，我们更愿意把这些股票再多保留一段时间。因为现在卖股票要交很多税，尤其是在现在的加州，所以我们更倾向于不要失去太多的钱。

提问：Daily Journal很像是迷你版的伯克希尔，包括投资等各个方面。

查理·芒格：是这样的。作为Daily Journal的管理者，我们的工作都是免费的，没有收取公司的董事费或者其它管理费用，有公司的股票就足够了。因为Daily Journal和伯克希尔的股东很相似，他们现在都很有钱，但我们仍希望会有一些新的股东加入进来。

斯蒂文·梅希尔-琼斯：我想补充一点，像我这样的新人现在还没有股票。

查理·芒格：你会有（股票）的。

斯蒂文·梅希尔-琼斯：其实，我现在的工作动力是能为芒格先生工作，这样我就已经很高兴了。我会非常严肃认真地对待这份工作，在这样的一个领域，跟很多政客打交道是挺锻炼人的。

查理·芒格：有部分人是不愿意和我们这个行业合作的，因为他们对这个收费并不满意，他们更喜欢一次性的交易，然后靠这个一次性的开发不断地赚钱，而我们的模式是不停的去给客户提供服务。所以，从这方面看，我们大的竞争对手也并不多。

提问：您打交道的人有很多，长期的合作伙伴除了巴菲特还有Rick Guerin（2020年去世），您怎么评价他？

查理·芒格：他是一个了不起的人，我非常怀念他。我们初次见面是在1961年，当时我们还都很穷，也很年轻。之后，我们关系很好，并合作了很多年。

ChatGPT非常重要，但它也不是万能的

提问：近期，微软应用ChatGPT引起很多讨论。ChatGPT看似是一个很好的商业模式，甚至可以写代码等等，您觉得它会对我们的社会造成什么样的影响？

查理·芒格：我觉得人工智能是非常重要的，是我们不可或缺的，但它也不能实现很多疯狂的想法，比如人工智能不会治疗癌症，这是它就做不了的。现在有很多无稽之谈，比如有些人要把人工智能用于保险承销方面，还有的人尝试把它用于一些日常生活方面，包括购买办公楼之类的。我觉得它在这些方面，对我们不太会有帮助的。

斯蒂文·梅希尔-琼斯：从我们公司的科技业务板块来说，我们也想在今年夏天尝试用一些人工智能的技术来解决复杂的工作，尤其是一些日常工作，我觉得这很有意思。

我们有很多不同类型的活动，尤其是日常的一些工作，我觉得这个技术还是很有意思的，可以观察一下这个技术在短期内是不是能够帮助我们做更多的日常工作。

提问：芒格先生，在使用ChatGPT方面您有什么建议？

查理·芒格：在很早前，有人说过，他相信什么就希望能拥有什么，这当然是非常重要的。但我想说，影响人类做出错误决定的一个因素，我称之为拒绝现实，就是说人们如果不喜欢一个什么东西，大脑思维就会自动去做出一些机制来抵抗这种东西。

就比如说在投资界，有很多基金经理都在想如何打败指数，不管付出多少代价。但实际上，可能只有5%的人能够持续的打败这个平均值指数，但大家都会收客户大量的费用，我觉得这是一个非常不道德的做法。如果基金经理收一个人每年几千美元的费用，但给客户提供了一些没有太大价值的建议，最后只能超过平均值指数一点点，很明显这个行业出现了问题。伯克希尔没有这么做，Daily Journal也没有这么做。这个问题没有人很好地去解决，因为经纪人需要这笔费用活下去。

我们不断的把一些股票回购回来，然后用来激励我们的员工。在我们投资的公司中，比亚迪的创始人也是这么做的，他用自己的股票去激励员工，这是一个很好的激励机制，是传统资本家的一种美德，我很喜欢这样的公司。

比亚迪是我最喜欢的一只股票

提问：2018年时，您分析过比亚迪，您说《每日日报》跟比亚迪不一样，但是如果您做好的话，《每日日报》就可以像比亚迪一样。现在您觉得《每日日报》跟比亚迪还有什么相似之处吗？

查理·芒格：做到这一步不会很快，而且也不会很容易。比亚迪是我有史以来最成功的风险投资案例之一。

创始人王传福是一个农民的儿子，他受到很好的教育，进入了工程学院，之后成为一个企业家。

他是一个天才，他每天思考17个小时，是一个工作狂，他做到了一些平常人无法做到的事情。

提问：比亚迪是你买过最喜欢的股票吗？

查理·芒格：我会说是的。没有任何一家企业投资回报率能超过比亚迪，我们在比亚迪的投资到现在价值约80亿或90亿美元。这是一个相当不错的回报率。

我们不能总遇到这样的事情，可能一辈子也就遇到一次，这种事情真的很难遇到。

我对比亚迪转向电动车方向产生了比较大的影响

提问：将比亚迪与特斯拉对比来看，您是不是相对更加喜欢比亚迪？

查理·芒格：这个问题很好回答。特斯拉去年在中国市场主动降价，还将比亚迪看做它的主要竞争对手。但是在中国的电动车市场中，比亚迪市场占有率是超越特斯拉的。

从整个电动车市场来看，中国的产销量非常庞大，而在几年以前，在排名靠前的生产企业中，还很难看到比亚迪的名字。

提问：伯克希尔最近抛售了一些比亚迪的股票，您认为是什么原因呢？

查理·芒格：比亚迪的市盈率已经是50倍了，价格已经不便宜。当然，从业绩方面来看，今年它可能会有50%以上的业绩增长。

我们不是现在抛售比亚迪，我们之前就出售了一些比亚迪股票，主要因为比亚迪的股价已经很高，现在比亚迪的市值已经超过了奔驰的市值。

这不代表我不看好它了，比亚迪是非常了不起的一家公司。当初是李（芒格合伙人、美国喜马拉雅资本创始人）向我们推荐的比亚迪，那时候比亚迪的工厂很简陋，还只是一家给手机商做配套电池的企业，后来我们也给了它一些意见，比如建议比亚迪走进汽车行业，我当时对比亚迪的发展方向确实产生了比较大的影响。

我仍认为阿里巴巴是最好的公司之一，仓位调整是因为此前用了一些杠杆

提问：您怎么看阿里巴巴？阿里巴巴的股票在去年出现了一些调整，你也出售了一部分股票，卖出的原因有哪些？好像与平时的哲学思维是相违背的。

查理·芒格：我认为阿里巴巴是世界上最好的公司之一，它在中国互联网零售方面占据了非常重要的地位，具有很强的市场竞争力。

有些股票我们是会长期持有的，有些则正如你所说的，而后者的情况是很少出现的。需要说明一点，当初我们用了一些杠杆。

有时候我也会问自己一个问题，就是将投资金额对比资产净值，多大的百分比是比较合适的？也许是100%，也许是150%，但这并不是一个简单的问题，如果有很好的机会，100%其实是一个合理的百分比。

提问：有人认为以下三个事情是“邪恶”的：女人、酒和杠杆。其中一个就是杠杆，对此，您是怎么看待的？

查理·芒格：对比来说，杠杆并不是那么邪恶，我用过，巴菲特也会用。在银行业，我们在称之为“犹太国库券”的产品上就使用了一些杠杆，而且很有效。

伯克希尔买入并持有动视暴雪，也是类似“犹太国库券”的交易，当然套利也发挥了一些作用。

投资中国可以让你用便宜的价格 买到一些更好的公司

提问：现在还是外资投资中国的一个好的选择吗？

查理·芒格：投资人去投资中国是没有问题的。相较于投资美国而言，投资中国可以让你用便宜的价格买到一些更好的公司，而这即便有一些不确定因素的影响，也是值得的。

提问：谈谈对半导体行业的看法吧。

查理·芒格：半导体行业是一个非常特殊的行业，因为它需要你把所有的钱都投入进去，尤其是面临技术更新迭代的情况下，所需要投入的资金量会更大，我不希望伯克希尔和Daily Journal 的钱都投入到一个行业里。

半导体可以说是一个赢家通吃的行业，同时也是一个不够完美的行业。也许这是一个很好的投资领域，但是作为一个老年人来说，我不想再学习一些新的东西了。

投资加密货币是非常疯狂和滑稽的行为

提问：您曾表示，想要变得更好，必须学会从我的对立面进行辩论。对加密货币您有哪些看法？有什么要辩论的吗？

查理·芒格：没有好的论据来反驳我对于加密货币的观点。加密货币是一个愚蠢的物种，就像赌局一样，有时候我会称之为加密货币的骗局。

投资加密货币是非常疯狂和滑稽的，居然有人去买加密货币？对人类而言，世界上没有其他东西能够比货币更加重要，尤其是国家货币，它让人们走向了现代社会文明。

但居然有人疯狂地发明一种东西来代替国家货币，这是非常错误的、愚蠢的甚至是非常危险的。美国政府对此是存在过错的，它允许了加密货币的存在，这可能最终会招致灾难。中国政府禁止加密货币是对的，这值得美国政府借鉴，我们不该一错再错。

提问：比特币怎么样？您会卖空吗？

查理·芒格：我不会。在我的生命历程中，我只有三次卖空行为，都是30年前的事情了，其中一次是货币，另外两次是股票交易。

有一次卖空股票给我造成了很大损失，而一次卖空货币帮我挣了很多钱，大概8亿美元，虽然我最后挣了很多钱，但卖空绝不是一件好事情。

Costco是一个非常完美的公司，我不会卖出它的股票

提问：你喜欢开市客（Costco）公司的经营模式，它的护城河会长期存在吗？

查理·芒格：开市客有非常强的成本控制能力，我们觉得没有任何公司能够阻挡开市客的发展势头。开市客现在的市盈率是40倍左右，算不上便宜。

开市客是一个非常完美的公司，有非常好的未来，还有很好的文化、很好的员工。我喜欢关于开市客的一切，我是它的崇拜者，我对它上瘾，我也从来不会卖它的股票。

对股票回购加税是在占企业的便宜

提问：拜登总统提议将企业回购股票税从1%提高到4%，您对此怎么看？

查理·芒格：强烈反对。对股票回购加税，就像是在盗窃公司辛苦赚来的钱，占公司的便宜。

我主张做符合道德的事情，政府和企业都应该通过体面的方式去挣钱。在某些方面，我赞同拜登总统的做法，但在股票回购加税这方面我是反对的。

提问：伯克希尔进行了很多大笔回购。您对此是如何看的？

查理·芒格：过去三年，伯克希尔做了很多回购工作，有些可能是出于税务方面的考虑。这（回购）对我们的股东是有好处的。

持有伯克希尔股票超过20年的投资人，一定会有一个不错的回报

提问：近日有文章称，持有伯克希尔股票的人正在承受着压力，但据我了解伯克希尔是个大的公司联盟，一个公司出现问题，另一个公司或部门可以对它提供帮助，您是不是可以给我们股东提供一些信心，不要让我们的股票出现大的问题。

查理.芒格：我认为伯克希尔的股票在很长时间内都不会出现大的问题，在目前的价格背景下，你（投资者）是可以用高价出卖股票的。

但就我而言，考虑到所有的因素，我认为目前伯克希尔的股票定价还是非常合理的，伯克希尔的股东从长期来看都是比较安全的，不用太担心它会有什么困难。持有伯克希尔股票超过20年的投资人，一定会有一个不错的回报。

提问：伯克希尔股价是否存在着潜在的压力？

查理.芒格：我认为它（伯克希尔的股价）在一定区间内会出现一些波动，当前美国政府对企业是存在一定不友好的。随着税务的上升，投资行业的未来会出现越来越多的困难，这是很自然的，但我并不是很担心这些问题，毕竟我年事已高。

芒格分享长寿秘诀：喜欢吃花生酱糖、很少去刻意锻炼

提问：您已经99岁了，身体依然健康，可不可以分享一下长寿的秘诀。

查理.芒格：我有一款非常喜欢的花生酱糖，我并不想给我的产品（注：此处指伯克希尔旗下喜诗糖果）做广告，但这款花生酱糖确实很好。

提问：大家也很想了解您的日常习惯，比如您是否会做锻炼？

查理.芒格：我很少锻炼，年轻时，当我还在部队的时候，曾做过一些锻炼，但我很少会刻意去锻炼，可能偶尔会打个网球。

提问：有没有想过，去改变这个习惯？

查理.芒格：没有，我想每个人的人生历程都是不一样的，每个人的习惯也是不一样的。

提问：您每天起床后会做什么？在您100岁生日时您最想做什么？

查理.芒格：我每天一起床就要坐轮椅，但我并不喜欢这种感觉。罗斯福的最后12年也是在轮椅上度过的，我其实并不想像他那样。

提问：您在1995年做过一个关于人类误判心理学的演讲，您曾表示：随着年龄的增长，有些人类的倒退是不可避免的。当时您71岁，现在您已99岁高龄，您还依然坚持之前的观点吗？

查理.芒格：有些人年纪越轻会越精明，像施罗德。我现在也衰退了很多，但大部分事情我依然能够应对自如，我认为对于我的年纪，这是很好的结果。

利率增长是必然的，投资者要学会去适应高利率

提问：再来聊聊投资吧。您觉得当前的高利率会对投资有什么影响吗？

查理.芒格：毋庸置疑，现在利率已经很高了，它对股价是不利的。但利率增长也是必然的，我们不应该长期处于零利率的环境，投资者也应该学会去适应高利率。所有的事情都不会一直顺风而行。

当前通货膨胀率也很高，未来也会有更多通货膨胀的问题，Daily Journal也在考虑去买一些政府的债券。

提问：我们的通货膨胀总是不断出现，之前比较严重是上世纪70年代的保罗·沃克时期，现在是不是也需要借鉴保罗·沃克当时的做法呢？

查理.芒格：我对长期的预期还是比较乐观的，但短期来看确实会有一些波动和困难，当然我也并不清楚具体会出现哪些问题。

我们并不能完美的避开所有困难，但要对未知的困难提前做准备

提问：我们是不是应该继续提高债务额度？当前有很多因素在较量，我们应该如何应对？

查理.芒格：当你回看世界民主史，你会发现其实失败重重。在我的有生之年里，我认为最坏的事情就是德国独裁者希特勒的上台。希特勒的上台是世界大衰退后的一个产物，之后的“二战”也波及到了美国国民。

未来，我们也并不能完美的避开所有困难，但要对未知的困难提前做准备。政府也会做一些事，有些是对的，有些也不一定对，当然我还是觉得美国政府做的很多事情都是非常好的，很多方面我对我们的政府还是充满自豪的。

比如对“二战”的态度，在我们取得胜利后，并没有去惩罚德国和日本，相反还给他们提供了很多帮助，比如出资帮助他们重建，这就是我们国家做的比较好的一个方面，对于整个人类来讲都是一件好事。

但未来，我们也不能排除坏事的发生，毕竟谁都会犯错。

提问：有位德国的股票分析师谈到，很多股票的报酬是公司常见的激励报酬，有些公司用收入的20%来作为股票报酬，您怎么看待这种做法？

查理.芒格：美国的公司有非常好的激励机制，但一些公司的做法确实有些激进了，这其实也是人性的一个表现。

我赞同公司使用这种基于股票的激励机制或报酬机制，激励每个人工作的积极性，但这样也会导致收入看上去过高，但这就是人性。

我想说，开市客公司的报酬机制就是非常完美的，他以一个比较适当的股票百分比来做报酬机制。而高科技公司则会发行一些股票，有时候会给人造成一种错觉。美国一些公司的报酬机制显然是不太合理的，但其实在早年间，我们的风气还是比较好的，这种不合理情况的发生，多在最近50年。现在大家都想要更高的报酬机制，尤其是高管层面，这是一个不好的做法，非常令人憎厌。如果继续下去的话，文明是会灭亡的。但我确实也没有更好的建议去纠正这个做法，这是一个非常困难的问题。

马斯克是个非常不同寻常的人，除了比亚迪没有公司能比特斯拉做的更好

提问：您觉得马斯克拥有了推特，将对美国整个社会带来什么影响？

查理.芒格：我并不用推特，所以对于这个话题我也没有很好的判断。马斯克很有才华并且很特殊，但我不会买入或者卖出他持有公司的股票，我只是认为他是一个非常不同寻常的人。

马斯克对特斯拉的一些做法很好，我认为除了比亚迪，没有公司能比它做的更好。但像马斯克这样的天才，有些方面还是做不过比亚迪，他与比亚迪竞争并不容易。

提问：有问题谈到，世界人口从您出生至今已经翻了4倍，您觉得人口的增长对人类是一个威胁吗？

查理.芒格：人口问题有时会造成大的灾难，随着世界的繁荣发展，可以看到，比如中国，生育率在逐年下降，日本已经出现了人口短缺。

当前，世界人口尤其是发达国家的人口，已经达到了极限，马斯克好像也说过同样的话，其实人口的萎缩才是对人类的威胁，这也是我为什么会说有时候马斯克是个聪明人。

不会投资迪士尼这类公司，技术发展对公司业务带来很大挑战

提问：您怎么看迪士尼？它是好的投资标的吗？

查理.芒格：我们没有买过迪士尼的股票，但迪士尼是家很有意思的公司，它的所有业务都比以前更困难了，现在技术的发展已经完全改变了世界。我觉得体育界的ESPN和迪士尼有些类似，现在的业务也在变得越来越困难，电影行业也是一样，都不容易。我不太会投资这类公司。

提问：2022年，密苏里州一名女性在一场特殊汽车索赔案中打赢了官司，获得了GEICO汽车保险公司高额的赔偿金，您认为密苏里法庭的判决正确吗？

查理.芒格：并非每个法庭的判决都是正确的，有时候法庭的裁决确实令人气愤，这也是为什么我们有上诉法庭，对于一些疯狂的判决，上诉法庭是有不同意见的。

提问：您认为这个判决是疯狂的？

查理.芒格：是的。

提问：有人对伯克希尔与3G资本，卡夫食品与3G资本的合作业务兴趣颇高，您对这种合作关系怎么看？

查理.芒格：有的交易是好的，也有的交易是不好的，伯克希尔也是一样，但这笔业务还是非常不错的，不过他们的工作方法最近并没有生效，这就是生活，没有那么简单。

提问：这个问题也是关注伯克希尔的。伯克希尔对埃克森美孚石油公司的加仓是否是长期的？

查理·芒格：这是个好问题。我认为通过西方石油和埃克森美孚的持仓，在二叠纪盆地（注：又名西德克萨斯盆地，有丰富的页岩油天然气资源）上有高仓位投资是很好的事情，我很喜欢这种高仓位的投资。很多时候人们更愿意做短期的投机而不是长期的投资，但我想说，在盆地上拥有这样的投资是非常好的。

我只能教别人几乎人人皆知的知识，有点类似于把一个人从悬崖边拉一把

提问：芒格先生，您认为目前在美国有系统性的种族主义么？

查理·芒格：当然，我认为是有的。在人类历史上，存在很多对一部分族群歧视的情况，但我认为在我的一生中，这种情况已经好转很多了，种族主义在下降。

提问：您认为未来25年气候变化会对保险业产生影响吗？你们会提高伯克希尔公司的保费么？

查理·芒格：我不确定我是否擅长回答这个问题。尽管气候变化是件严肃的事情，但我认为它实际会造成的影响可能会比人们想象的小很多。所以我觉得可能还不会影响我们去调整保费，我还会再等等看。

提问：这个问题来自一位在印第安纳大学教授个人理财及公司金融课程的老师。您觉得应该教学生哪些知识，以便他们拥有基础和常识，从而在以后的生活中有效地处理他们个人或公司的财务问题呢？

查理·芒格：良好的判断力至关重要。如果一个人判断力不足，可能会做出一些不太合理的决定，产生一些不好的影响。所以我的建议是要持续地学习，不断地改进自己。

我曾经说过，我只能教别人几乎人人皆知的知识，有点类似于把一个人从悬崖边拉一把，也许我会教那些愿意学习并且能够学习的人知识。但我不擅长教那些还未入门的人知识。

顺便提一下，大多数教育的运作，其实是不断筛选人才，有些人无法跟上进步，最后就被淘汰了。我昨天还曾与一位优秀的法律教授交谈，他在著名的法学院当教授，他们总是有能力带领优秀的学生进步更多，却无法把笨蛋变得聪明。

常言道，傻气长存。

人类文明对我们的要求本就不高：对自己和他人做出切合实际的期望

提问：在许多企业家或名人看来，人必须有远大的梦想。但您却说“幸福生活的秘诀是降低期望值”，能就这句话再展开谈谈么？

查理·芒格：确实，你当然要尽可能努力地一步步向上，去争取更多成就，这是生命的奥秘。但是总有些人会因此陷入情绪困境。毕竟每种成功背后可能都有着一千次的失败。如果你做出了一些不切实际的承诺，结果是一次又一次地失败，那么别人也会因此而讨厌你。

我们这些小小生命彼此相遇，人类文明对我们的要求本就不高：对自己和他人做出切合实际的期望。

提问：一位来自中国的投资者想请问您，在疫情防控措施放开之后，对于老年人有哪些健康和安全的建议？

查理·芒格：我之前也感染了Covid-19，但我的症状很轻，尽管检测呈阳性，也只是流了大概10分钟的鼻涕就好了。然而相对于新冠大流行，我觉得对老年人而言，尽量避免摔倒更为重要。我有一些年纪比较大的朋友都是因为摔倒而离世。我的一位好朋友平时使用拐杖，我大概用了6年半的助行推车，它很好用，这期间我从未跌倒过，现在我还买了辆轮椅。我给老年人的建议就是要谨慎，别摔倒。

为伟大的企业买单，伟大的才是好的

提问：您给巴菲特提供过一个很好的建议，就是要用好的价格买好的公司，这改变了巴菲特的一些投资理念，而不是像原来一样到处捡烟蒂。

查理·芒格：曾经有一段时间遍地是果实，你很轻松的就可以以便宜的价格在果园里买到好的东西，但这种情况后来消失了，然后就出现了业绩衰退。

本·格雷厄姆（Ben Graham）一生中赚的所有钱的一半以上都来自1只股票。那只股票就是GEICO（政府雇员保险公司）。所以你看，他教给我的事就是他如何变得富有。在我看来，这就是应该为伟大的企业买单。

伟大的才是好的（Greatness is good.）。

投资首选好公司，再考虑好管理层

提问：当您给一个公司做潜在投资估值的时候，更看重公司本身还是管理层？或者您会首先考量哪些事情？

查理·芒格：我觉得公司是排在第一位的，然后是管理层。如果我们只投资好的管理层，但是公司不是很好的话，我们不会取得现在这么好的成绩。

提问：如果一个好的公司却有不好的管理层会怎样？

查理·芒格：像可口可乐，在曾经在很长一段时间内都被一个不好的管理者运营，但它的盈利能力依然很好，这就是为什么我要投资好的公司。可口可乐最辉煌的时期是在25年前。

提问：对公司管理层性格和能力的评估，您有什么经验？

查理.芒格：每个人都会犯错，在我的生活中，让我最感慨的就是IBM的崛起和衰退，IBM曾是我最敬仰的美国公司，但过去10~15年，随着竞争对手苹果、谷歌的崛起，IBM的衰退是不可避免的，柯达也是一样，在数字摄影出现后，柯达也出现了衰退。

比尔·盖茨曾说过，当真正具有颠覆性技术出现时，新的技术很容易会完全代替旧的。对一个成功很久的企业来说，改变业务模式和思考方式是很难的。但我们的Daily Journal公司，还是会不断去应对新世界的，尤其是报纸行业的不断变化，我们正在给法庭做自动化软件，这是另外一个完全不同的行业。。

提问：您曾说过，“你不需要投资很多东西才会富有”。那么，您会长期持有一只股票吗？现在您会选谁进行这个操作？

查理·芒格：一个好的仓位很重要，如果遇到一个好的公司我们肯定会持有很长时间。

现在的话，很多好公司都是不便宜的，美国一些好公司的市盈率一般都到了25倍甚至是30倍，这其实是有一定风险的，如果一步走错就会损失很多。尽管有些好公司的价格还可以，但是并不多。在这种情况下，95%的美国基金经理我都不想让他们给我工作，因为我觉得太难了。美国现在的401K计划实现正收益的比例是远远低于5%的，这是非常罕见的现象。

提问：每个人都会犯错，您偶尔也会犯错，这会在实际行动中产生警示作用，从而导致一些好想法会搁浅，您从去年到现在摧毁了哪些好想法？

查理·芒格：我摧毁的都是坏想法。比如当互联网兴起的时候，我被网上零售这种模式震惊到了，所以我会很关注相关的公司。但对于阿里巴巴，可能是我之前过高的估计了它的回报率。

我必须要承认我自己的错误，这对我自己也是有帮助的。

美国的医疗体系有很多浪费，我不想回答谁会执政的问题

提问：在上次股东会上，您谈到了医疗系统。您对美国的医疗补贴、英国的单一支付体系等都是怎么看的？

查理·芒格：很多公司包括摩根大通银行、亚马逊等，都在纠正美国医疗体系的一些问题，沃伦也在想办法，因为我们目前在医疗体系方面确实有太多的浪费。

提问：如果要您选一个2024年的执政者，您会选谁？

查理·芒格：我不想回答这个问题。

提问：您说非常钦佩本杰明·富兰克林，为什么呢？

查理·芒格：他是个天才。在很早以前，美国还是很弱小的，很多人生活贫困，他父亲的主要工作是处理已死亡动物的尸体。但他在接受小学教育之后，就通过自我学习成为国家最好的缔造者之一。他有很高的智商，不断地去创新，包括发明了近视眼镜，我现在戴的（眼镜）就是他发明的。他还为国家做了很多事情，包括很多国家规则的制定等，从而造就了现在的美国。所以，我觉得我们很幸运有他这样的领导者。

《穷查理宝典》“新版”已经在做了，延迟满足让成功的几率更大

提问：您会不会再出版一本新的《穷查理宝典》？

查理·芒格：现在已经在做了，是一个中国的、网上的版本。这不仅仅是因为中国人多，还因为一个成功的老年人在儒家思想的社会，可以赢得更多的尊重。

提问：到了您这个年纪，已经积累了巨大的财富，您现在还会延迟满足吗？对于年轻人，您会有什么建议？

查理·芒格：我现在的年龄确实大了，但我还是延用延迟满足的做法，这个行为方式没有年龄限制，适用于任何人。

我们都在找各种机会、用不同的方式来享受生活。这（延迟满足）有的是天生的，有的通过后天也可以学到。

提问：您是天生还是后天养成的？

查理·芒格：我很早就学会了延迟满足。小孩子爱吃棉花糖，如果愿意多等一段时间，就可以吃更多的棉花糖，愿意花多一点时间、多吃更多棉花糖的人在日后取得成功的几率更大。我很幸运，我天生就掌握了这种技巧，没有人教我。

要对股东忠诚，即便他们已经去世

提问：沃伦·巴菲特是一个“学习机器”，除了这个品质外，您认为，沃伦还有哪些品质使他成为世界上最伟大的投资者之一？

查理·芒格：沃伦不仅是一位非常好的思想家，而且他还是一位很好的学习者。

沃伦和我很幸运，在很早的时候，我们就有了很多股东，他们很信任我们。我们在他们之间建立了良好的信誉。我们对他们很忠诚，即便他们中很多人已经去世了。

提问：关于格雷格·阿贝尔（Greg Abel），您怎么评价他？他是一台“学习机器”吗？

查理·芒格：格雷格是一个很好的商业领袖，无论是作为思想家还是实干家。而且他非常擅长领导其他人完成工作，他是一个非常了不起的人。我们很幸运有格雷格在为伯克希尔工作。他也是一个“学习机器”，像沃伦一样一直在学习新鲜事物。

有关格雷格的一件趣事是，他比沃伦更擅长一些事情。沃伦知道这一点，他不断的引导格雷格做的更完善。

伯克希尔运转得很好，我们很幸运有一个工作和身体状态很好的92岁老人。当然，我们也很幸运能有一位像格雷格这样的CEO。

格雷格正试图像监管机构一样管理所有公用事业的业务，这是一种聪明的思维方式。

提问：您的意思是，这是一种很好的信念？

查理·芒格：是的，为什么不是呢？如果你希望别人以这个方式对待你，你也需要这么做。这是黄金法则，我不认为这么做的人还会失败。

一个良好的文明，财产私有且可以自由交易

提问：您认为我是在67岁时领取社会保障金，还是等到70岁时再领取，届时每个月会领取更多？

查理·芒格：我不能为你做选择，这要看情况而定。

如果你知道你很快就会死去，那就去领取保障金吧。如果你觉得你会活很久，则会得出不同的选择。

大多数身体健康的人，一般都会推迟领取社会保障金，以便以后能拿到更多的钱。

提问：在繁荣周期和萧条周期中，一个好的政府应该为经济增长做什么？

查理·芒格：几乎每一项都是必须要做的。要尽量提高人均GDP，并使私有财产掌握在私人手里，然后通过自由交换，使文明发展、经济繁荣。

在良好的文明中，大多数财产是私有的，而且可以自由交易。例如你喜欢小提琴课，而我需要你的钱，我们就可以做一笔交易，这对于我们双方都有好处。

据我所知，在世界历史上，从原始社会发展到现代文明，都在遵循一种方式，即“财产私人拥有，而且可以自由交换”。

顺便一提，我只是说了一些显而易见的事情，但大多数教育中并没有教过这些道理。

理解了“所有公司都会消亡”后，我成为了更好的投资者

提问：在担任伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司副董事长的历程中，最让您印象深刻的事是什么？您是如何通过这些事，成为更好的“学习机器”的？

查理·芒格：我印象最深刻的事是公司的消亡，一个商业世界和自然界几乎是一样的，很多动物、很多物种都会消亡，它们都在遵循着自然界的规律。

所有事物都有更替，这是自然规律，很多企业都走在消亡的路上。例如柯达公司，它曾经是世界上最伟大的品牌之一。我们每个人都会用到胶卷，但它突然从世界上消亡了。事实上在一定范围内，所有事物都会消亡的。我年轻的时候没有意识到这一点。

再例如施乐公司，它看起来会永远存在，也已经存在了很长时间。我想，这些公司在我老了的时候还会在吧，但事实上其中很多都已经消亡了，没有一家公司是永恒的。

再例如有些伟大的百货公司，他们是整个社区最重要的构成部分，为居民提供日常生活所需商品，它们看起来会永远存活下去，但最后也都关门了。

一旦我理解了这一点，我就成为了一个更好的投资者。

我和沃尔玛的道格·麦克米兰（Doug McMillan）交谈过，他的钱包里，几十年来一直装着顶级零售商的名单，可见他一直生活在恐惧之中，担心沃尔玛会被颠覆。

曾经，IBM在智能制造领域拥有非常领先的地位，但现在它成为了所有智能制造公司中的一家而已。所以公司会有兴衰更替，即便企业管理人很有才华也很勤奋。

耐性、延迟满足、兑现承诺，会改善你的资源和机会

提问：您最钦佩的人是谁？

查理·芒格：我可能会说，开市客的吉姆·塞内加尔（Jim Senegal）。他没有上过沃顿商学院，也没有上过哈佛。他18岁就在一家商店里工作。现在做到了开市客的CEO。他一生都在做生意，他太擅长做生意了。

提问：生活中什么品质对您帮助最大？

查理·芒格：很简单，答案是理性。如果你不发疯的话，你已经比95%的人可以做得更好了。

另外，你要有耐心，要懂得延迟满足，并且不做疯狂的事。还要尽量兑现你对他人的承诺。然后，你就会极大的改善你的资源和机会。事实就是如此简单。

提问：为什么很多人没有这样做呢？

查理·芒格：这是一个有趣的问题，我不认为孩子可以自动做到这一点。假如你有10个孩子，有一些会做的更好，而有一些就会做的不太好。

提问：拥有成功和财富后，或者随着年龄的增长，会更难以坚持理性吗？

查理·芒格：我认为这是很难的，但如果你很年轻，再勤加练习，你会变得更好，但这绝非易事。

如果问你一个问题，投资100万美元买一只股票，你会买哪只？没有收入，只能通过这一只股票来满足生活开支和精神世界的花费。我认为很多美国人都不知道如何回答这个问题，他们甚至不知道从何开始。

我经常向身边的人讲，无论你现在的生活是什么样的，年龄和财富的增加，都会让你更加向这个趋势（坚持理性）靠拢。今天早上醒来，我还在想我买裤子一直很节省，这个习惯在我的脑海里已经根深蒂固了，我没办法改变，我一直都是这样的人。

中文翻译原文

贝琪 

斯蒂芬，非常感谢你，欢迎大家。我们收到了大量的问题，我已经尽可能多地进行了分类。我们将在会议期间尽可能多地讨论这些问题。但首先，查理，感谢你今天抽出时间。我们的第一个问题来自 Ryan Fusaro。他的问题与期刊技术有关。他说，你能介绍一下公司新任首席执行官斯蒂芬迈克尔琼斯的最新情况吗，他在将近一年前被任命为临时正式首席执行官，他的表现如何？什么时候会决定选择一位常任首席执行官？

查理芒格 

好吧，是的，答案是史蒂夫选择了他自己的头衔，并且会在他想改变的时候改变。

贝琪 

这听起来很公平。是的。

史蒂文·迈克尔·琼斯 

你知道，我要说的是，一年前我们讨论时，我告诉查理，我致力于确保业务的成功，但我不确定我是否会成为合适的长期 CEO。我当时的信息不完整。而且我认为重要的是，如果我们刚刚结束那是一条更好的道路，我可以选择聘请更适合的人或从内部提拔。而且，你知道，我发现它帮助发展了一家没有出版或法律和法院部门背景的地理软件公司。而我现在能看到的是，我建立的软件公司与通用技术之间的相似之处是惊人的，我相信我可以增加价值。我喜欢这项业务和它的潜力。因此，我希望在今年晚些时候的某个时候能更清楚地了解我们的长期方法。好的，

贝琪 

谢谢。第二个问题是关于资本配置的。这是来自密歇根州林伍德市的 Paul Pham。在过去的一年里，你刚刚在过去描述了日报作为报纸的独特地位，它在过去产生了足够的多余现金来投资于股票投资组合。现在，其增长最快的子公司期刊技术占公司收入的很大一部分。技术业务是分配过剩资本以获得公司最佳股本回报率的自然领域。哦，亲爱的，你能听到我说话吗？我会继续在这里讲。12345。我会测试一下。也许你们可以玩我，但如果有上帝的声音，你们可以玩到地板上。但我会继续说下去，希望查理能明白这一点。查理，让我知道，当你听到这个的时候。这又是一个问题。听起来他们没有听到人们的声音。我不知道控制室。如果你们对正在发生的事情有任何想法。同样，这是日报股东大会的年度会议。我们有很多问题要问查理芒格。一旦我们为此修复了音频，我们就会进入这些问题。

史蒂文·迈克尔·琼斯 

听起来像 Becky，我们暂时可以听到有人将平板电脑带到平板电脑上。

贝琪 

好的，史蒂文。谢谢你，查理。我会总结一下。我不知道你刚刚在哪里被切断了。但这是来自 Paul Pham。他问的是你的小资本，资本配置。他只是想知道技术业务是否是一个自然区域，可以分配多余的资本以获得公司的最佳股本回报率？我们应该如何考虑或当前的投资经理如何考虑投资与再投资股票回购或股票回购的业务增长领域相关的股权投资组合？

查理芒格 

好吧，这一切都非常简单。我们在出版业务的鼎盛时期赚了很多钱。那大约是 3000 万美元。而这一切都是在丧失抵押品赎回权的繁荣时期造成的。当然，在过去，我们垄断了发布上诉法院判决 baleia 新闻纸的信息，互联网出现了，它摧毁了我们，我们的地位，我们的发行量大幅下降，等等。因此，我们的好运和出版业务发生了翻天覆地的变化。史蒂夫实际上经营着一家小型软件公司，并且在加拿大工作了很多年，这与 Gen technologies 所做的非常相似。这就是我们聚在一起的方式。未来。这个业务不在发布端。它在一般技术方面。好消息是，我们正处于一个巨大的市场中，因为就现代技术的自动化而言，世界上所有的法院都还处于石器时代。所以这是一个很大的市场。坏消息是，这是一个漫长而缓慢的过程，你要处理很多官僚机构，以响应 RFP 的提案请求，这是一个非常缓慢、困难的业务。所以我们必须放慢进入一个巨大市场的老业务，这不会因为一个大的竞争对手而消失。这就是未来，就像许多使用新闻纸的出版公司一样，当你到达时是一个奇迹，如果你看一下有价值的书籍的中小型版，你会发现有两个条目离开了一个正在消失，哪个曾经拥有专卖报纸，我不知道5060 100个不同的城市。高管们就在巨型飞机上，当他们去参加每个报纸出版商的出版商大会时，他们会像英格兰上议院一样受到对待，你知道，那是他自己社区中非常有权势的人。所以他们就像英格兰的上议院，所有这些出版商。而现在强大的caneta只是它自己的一个苍白影子。报纸缩小到很小的视野和非常有限的资产，等等。因此，在新闻纸上出版普通报纸的技术和竞争结果发生了令人难以置信的变化。总的来说，安全的规则是他们都在死去，他们只是处于不同的濒死状态。因此，如果这个地方有未来，那就是在通用技术方面，这是一个漫长而缓慢的过程。我们拥有大量有价证券的唯一原因是我们有多余的钱，在通货膨胀的世界里，我们更喜欢有价证券而不是现金。因此，当然，我们在有价证券方面获得的收益与我们拥有的一样多，这是一个小小的奇迹，因为我们的投资表现优于平均水平。接下来，好消息是我们幸存了下来，并且有了一些剩余的财富。还有坏消息。在主要的未来不是期刊技术，这是一个漫长而缓慢的过程。

贝琪 

作为后续行动，这是一个相关的问题。它来自北爱尔兰的 Gareth more。也许你们都可以对此发表评论。他说，鉴于复杂性、风险和官僚主义以及快速发展的软件创新世界，法院系统数字化所需的时间越来越长。股东们可以放心，期刊技术解决方案在足够长的时间内保持领先地位，足以回报股东，以及您如何应对在 2030 年拥有出色软件业务的风险，但这种风险只会持续几年，直到它被某些新技术打乱。当然，

史蒂文·迈克尔·琼斯 

我的意思是，你接受吗？嗯，是的。你知道，当然，没有任何保证。同时，你知道，我确实有一些应对这一挑战的背景，因为我在我以前的公司工作了 19 年。而且我们的利润始终如一且诱人。我希望这个模型对于收购我们的人来说仍然运作良好。你知道，我认为一个关键的责任是让技术变革，为我们和我们的客户工作而不是反对我们。它需要先进的规划和投资工程师软件，并考虑到随着时间的推移而发生的变化。因此它本质上是可升级的，我认为如果您可以建立足够的被许可人基础来资助主动研发以管理技术变革的方式拥有所有产品，那么它的模型会很有效。因此，它也需要高度可重复。

贝琪 

好的，让我继续讨论来自 gauge Sanchez 的另一个问题。两年前的 2021 年期间，查理给你写了一个问题。是的，让我们试试看。好的，我们可以听到那里的讲话者。好的。因此，Gauge Sanchez 写道，两年前，在 2021 年年会期间，你说日报 350 美元，股票售价远高于你为新股支付的价格。在我撰写这份日报时，以 305 美元的价格交易 A 股，市值 4.2 亿美元，股票投资组合总价值超过 3.1 亿美元，查尔斯多次谈到银行、股息和期刊技术或财务报表价值和巨大的市场，你还持有同样的信念吗？

查理芒格 

好吧，你准确地描述了我们的情况。我们确实有很多剩余财富，但我们需要它来进攻这个大市场。这些法庭？什么 他们为什么要赌一家没有价值的小公司让 RFP 签订合同？那么我们正在使用我们的网络来帮助业务。

贝琪 

但这是否涉及您是否会以 305 美元的价格购买股票的问题？

查理芒格 

好吧，我不买也不卖。这就是芒格一直在做的事情。你知道。考虑到这些天其他所有东西的销售情况，这并不是一个疯狂的估值。所以我不觉得它因为一些疯狂的错误而几乎愚蠢地高涨。有些人认为，好吧，这是一个小伯克希尔，它会像兔子一样翻倍，你知道的。当然，这不是一个小伯克希尔。我是99岁的伙计们。

贝琪 

那个问题提到了你们都有DJCO的银行分红。另一个人在诺曼伯格曼写道，他问，查理伯克希尔已经抛售了银行股，如果对伯克希尔股东来说还不够好，为什么对我们有利？

查理芒格 

好吧，我可能有不同的想法。如果您在位于加利福尼亚州的一家公司内拥有证券、有价证券，您将支付巨额的州和联邦税，并且您在一场大型游戏中出售东西。这会影响我们出售我在止赎危机中购买的一些银行股票的意愿。从字面上看，它是底部选择。他们几乎都是游戏。因此，我立即向政府提供了我们出售的所有银行股票中的 40 个数字。所以，当然，他们在产生税收，股息几乎是税率。因此，根据我们出售它们所获得的收益和回报，我们正在退出股息，这对我们来说并不是那么糟糕。答案是，我们不在正常位置。考虑到所有因素，我们愿意持有一段时间。而且有一个很大的缺点。总的来说，我们之间存在巨大的联邦公司税和州税。我们在加利福尼亚州这样一个非常商业友好的州赚到的任何钱，都可能是为了争先恐后地在加利福尼亚州注册成立。有各种各样的州没有所得税，并故意利用这种诱惑来引进公司，加利福尼亚州正试图迫使其富人和富有的公司离开该州。我必须说它工作正常。他们一个接一个地离开。这就是它的方式。但是你知道，如果我们在软件业务上取得成功，一切都会走到尽头。如果我们失败了，我们的证券房地产就会受到打击，这意味着我们不会从目前的市场价格中损失太多。

贝琪 

好吧，下一个问题来自 Thomas Lang，他说他是伯克希尔的长期股东，但最近才成为日报股东。他说，好吧，我知道日报不是迷你伯克希尔，我怀疑在治理领域会有一些共同的原则。特别是关于董事会。我很惊讶地看到如此小的所有权，零股的五个人中的三个，第四个拥有 100 股，托马斯说相当不起眼。并不表示董事会成员和股东之间存在不一致。他说他并不想无礼，但他认为这是一个公平的问题。

查理芒格 

好吧，发生的事情是我们曾经有 Garen 和 Munger，我们是两个最大的股东。当然，我们多年来一直是合作伙伴。我们不收取任何费用，不，不收取任何董事费用，不收取费用，不收取任何费用。所以这是一个非常用户友好的伯克希尔类型的地方。好吧，加林死了。终于在 90 岁时，如此如此，现在我们只剩下一个幸存者，老守卫。当然，我们需要一定数量的新董事，而我们的新董事非常聪明。顺便说一句，他们都很有钱。所以它仍然非常伯克希尔，就像董事会一样。更聪明，格雷琴。像资本家一样思考。我们仍然有那个。

史蒂文·迈克尔·琼斯 

我要补充一点，你知道，虽然我还没有股权，但我当然很想参与未来的业务增长。什么时间应该和某人在一起？是我，我认为这是一个有趣的问题。托马斯。我把它推出来。是的，对。现在，我认为这不会影响我的司机决定。我已经感受到了 Munger 先生和董事会委托我接管公司的巨大利益，这是我非常重视的事情。是真的

查理芒格 

拥有一堆证券非常有趣，他是一个非常高科技领域的一项有趣的活动，有很多政治和旅行，而且困难重重，但这是一个巨大的市场。大多数大公司，也就是我们的天然竞争对手，并不像其他人那样讨厌 RFP。换句话说，这项业务对我们有利的原因之一是很多大公司讨厌我们正在做的事情。他们今天想要更容易的钱。这么标准的签证软件，一遍又一遍的重复就好了。他们被宠坏了。我们愿意从调制解调器中吸取它，所有这些小的咨询合同。这使我们在该领域确实有一些竞争对手。

贝琪 

当然，既然你提到了 Rick Aaron，哦，继续吧。

查理芒格 

没有，继续。好吧，因为

贝琪 

瑞克，亚伦，你提出来了，我将从孟买的罗尼佩雷拉那里得到这个问题，他说你的朋友里克亚伦大约一年前去世了。几十年来，他一直是您的老朋友和商业伙伴。作为投资者，他是怎样的人？你如何记住他的遗产？

查理芒格 

好吧，作为个人投资者，他真是太棒了。我非常想念他。当然，我们在一起很多年，很多年，我们在一起。这创造了一种联系。

查理芒格 

当我们在 1961 年相遇时，我们都贫穷、挣扎，而且还很年轻。我们一起度过了漫长的旅程。但你知道万物皆有尽头，那就是，这就是人类状况的本质。

贝琪 

我从李那里得到一个问题。这位股东在关于聊天 GPT 和人工智能以及对日报、日报商业模式和文明的影响的问题中只写了一个名字，我不确定你是否尝试过与聊天 GPT 交谈鉴于最近的新闻风靡一时，简而言之，它是一种被称为语言模型的人工智能，它是在大量文本数据集（如书籍和文章）上进行训练的。您如何看待 AI 对日报业务以及更广泛的整个文明的影响？

查理芒格 

好吧，我认为人工智能非常重要，但也有很多关于这个主题的疯狂炒作。人工智能，它不会治愈癌症，它不会做我们想做的一切。而且，里面也有很多废话。所以我认为所有这些人工智能都是喜忧参半。有些人在保险承保等某些事情上使用得很好。但是很多人尝试将它用于普通的事情，比如购买办公楼或其他东西，我认为这要多得多，但我认为它不会通过报价帮助任何人，反正也不是很多。

史蒂文·迈克尔·琼斯 

通过日报 Corp. 的镜头，AI 是我们在夏天开始试验的东西，在夏天用于某些类型的写作某些类型的文章。我们肯定会非常密切地跟踪某些事情。我认为就复杂的工作而言，我认为还有很长的路要走。但是对于许多类型的活动，尤其是日常活动，我认为我们会很高兴看到它在相对较短的时间范围内对许多类型的工作和活动具有破坏性。

查理芒格 

我们对技术造成了严重的破坏，并对我们的出版业务产生了不利影响。我们在这项新业务中有机会。但这只是一个漫长而艰难的过程。在我们所做的事情中，没有一条通向成功的世界之路。

贝琪 

一位名叫 Peter Ferland 的人从安大略省奥克维尔写信过来，他有一个问题要问，他让 Chat GPT 想出一个问题来问你，Charlene。这是 GPT 提出的。芒格先生，您谈到了在决策过程中避免心理偏见的重要性，根据您的经验，要克服的最具挑战性的偏见是什么？你个人是如何防范的？所以我肯定回答这个问题。然后你觉得 Chat GPT 为你写的问题怎么样？

查理芒格 

好吧，我的名字，一个在错误决定中支配你的因素，你将是我所说的否认，如果真相足够令人不快的话。人们的思想会捉弄他们。他们明白，这并没有真正发生。当然，这对企业造成了巨大的破坏，人们继续把钱花在他们过去做事的方式上，比如哦，根本行不通，世界现在已经改变了，而且，如果您想举例说明拒绝如何影响事物，以投资管理领域为例。考虑到所有成本，有多少经理人会跑赢指数？我会说，也许是 5%，始终高于平均水平。其他人都生活在极端否认的状态中。他们习惯于收取高额费用等等。对于那些对他们的客户没有任何好处的东西。这是一种深刻的道德败坏。如果有人带着 500,000 美元来找你，而你每年收取 1 分，你就可以把她放在指数中。但是你需要一点。所以人们只是向某人收取哦，你知道的，对毫无价值的建议收取相当大的费用。整个进程都是为了那种否认。它无处不在。所以我不得不说，我总是引用很久以前的马斯洛，而且大部分是 2000 年，2000 多年前。他说，人们所希望的就是他们所相信的。想一想其中发生了多少。所以这当然非常重要。你可以看到它，我会说代理成本和资金管理。就是几十亿，不可数。没有人能面对它。谁想让你的孩子继续上学，你不会退学，你需要学费，你需要你需要的经纪人选择，这样你才能做对你有利而对他们不利的事情。现在，我认为伯克希尔不会那样做。我不认为加里和我在 Daily Journal 会这样做，而且我从来没有拿过一分钱的薪水或董事费或任何东西。如果我有事，我会打电话或开车，我不会记入日报。这是闻所未闻的。这应该不是闻所未闻的。它在伯克希尔继续进行。它在日报上发表。但是我们现在在这本期刊技术中有一家装配厂，它有 100 万美元的日刊股票，这些股票不是来自发行这些股票的公司。我把那些年给了公司，用它来补偿员工。可以说，我从比亚迪那里学到了这个技巧，比亚迪是我们证券投资组合中持有的证券之一。而比亚迪在其历史上的某个时期，创始人董事长，他并没有用公司的股票来奖励高管。他用了自己的股票，这是一个很大的回报，把去年发生的事情做好，比亚迪去年在中国汽车业务的税后收入超过20亿美元，他妈的20亿美元是一个全新的进入出于所有实际目的的业务。发生的事情令人难以置信。因此，这种老式的资本主义美德在日报中留下了一些，在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司也留下了一些。比亚迪一无所有。但大多数地方每个人都在努力获取他们需要的东西，只是合理化它是否值得。比亚迪去年在中国汽车业务中的税后收入超过 20 亿美元，而他妈的 20 亿美元是一个全新的进入该行业的实际目的。发生的事情令人难以置信。因此，这种老式的资本主义美德在日报中留下了一些，在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司也留下了一些。比亚迪一无所有。但大多数地方每个人都在努力获取他们需要的东西，只是合理化它是否值得。比亚迪去年在中国汽车业务中的税后收入超过 20 亿美元，而他妈的 20 亿美元是一个全新的进入该行业的实际目的。发生的事情令人难以置信。因此，这种老式的资本主义美德在日报中留下了一些，在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司也留下了一些。比亚迪一无所有。但大多数地方每个人都在努力获取他们需要的东西，只是合理化它是否值得。比亚迪一无所有。但大多数地方每个人都在努力获取他们需要的东西，只是合理化它是否值得。比亚迪一无所有。但大多数地方每个人都在努力获取他们需要的东西，只是合理化它是否值得。

贝琪 

你提到比亚迪，所以我会跳到斯蒂芬斯宾塞的问题，他从纽约纽约写信。他很好奇为什么芒格先生更喜欢投资比亚迪而不是特斯拉。

查理芒格 

嗯，这很容易。去年，特斯拉在中国两次降价。比亚迪提高了直接竞争对手的价格。远远领先于比亚迪。我的意思是，比亚迪在中国远远领先于特斯拉，就像。只是，这几乎是荒谬的。如果你看看大多数人从未听说过的比亚迪，如果你算上他们在中国拥有的所有制造汽车的制造空间，它将在整个曼哈顿岛占有一定比例。几年前没有人听说过他们。

贝琪 

好的。让我跳到另一个问题。这个来自迈克尔资产出售，他说这是我对伯克希尔出售伯克希尔股权的一些举动的问候。出售部分比亚迪和台湾半导体股份与中美关系有关还是纯粹出于经济原因？

查理芒格 

好吧，当他说的是 50 倍市盈率时，这是一个非常高的价格。另一方面，他们今年的汽车销量可能会再增加 50%。所以，顺便说一句，我们在几年前，不是几年前，而是大约一年前以更高的价格出售了我们的一部分。而且这只是目前，我们不是迷你伯克希尔，我们与伯克希尔所做的事情之间不会有很好的关联。你可以理解为什么有人会以当前价格 50 倍的市盈率出售伯克希尔比亚迪的股票，这就是为什么比亚迪的股票水平比整个梅赛德斯公司更值钱。市值，所以它不是一只便宜的股票，它是一家非常了不起的公司。顺便说一句，我想告​​诉人们，作为比亚迪，我为六大成功做出了巨大贡献，我，我们是通过李路进去的，而且是所有公司都把日本手机搞砸了。还有那个靠一家破产的破烂小汽车拿到天才薪水的董事长，当他把手机做成小公司时，他白手起家从事汽车业务。我和李璐都在谈论这件事，请不要做这种愚蠢的事情。你把你的头交给你。小比亚迪的生意结束了。去年，他们在汽车业务上赚了超过 20 亿美元，从零开始，这是闻所未闻的。但最近，我们注意到它们都很棒，因为我们试图获得它们。我们试图谈论做那些行之有效的事情，这表明生活中存在一些意外。还有那个靠一家破产的破烂小汽车拿到天才薪水的董事长，当他把手机做成小公司时，他白手起家从事汽车业务。我和李璐都在谈论这件事，请不要做这种愚蠢的事情。你把你的头交给你。小比亚迪的生意结束了。去年，他们在汽车业务上赚了超过 20 亿美元，从零开始，这是闻所未闻的。但最近，我们注意到它们都很棒，因为我们试图获得它们。我们试图谈论做那些行之有效的事情，这表明生活中存在一些意外。还有那个靠一家破产的破烂小汽车拿到天才薪水的董事长，当他把手机做成小公司时，他白手起家从事汽车业务。我和李璐都在谈论这件事，请不要做这种愚蠢的事情。你把你的头交给你。小比亚迪的生意结束了。去年，他们在汽车业务上赚了超过 20 亿美元，从零开始，这是闻所未闻的。但最近，我们注意到它们都很棒，因为我们试图获得它们。我们试图谈论做那些行之有效的事情，这表明生活中存在一些意外。他们在汽车业务中赚取了超过 20 亿美元，从这个地位开始到零，这是闻所未闻的。但最近，我们注意到它们都很棒，因为我们试图获得它们。我们试图谈论做那些行之有效的事情，这表明生活中存在一些意外。他们在汽车业务中赚取了超过 20 亿美元，从这个地位开始到零，这是闻所未闻的。但最近，我们注意到它们都很棒，因为我们试图获得它们。我们试图谈论做那些行之有效的事情，这表明生活中存在一些意外。

贝琪 

查理，这个问题来自迈克尔加拉格尔。他说，根据公司文件，阿里巴巴的股票似乎是用杠杆购买的。去年股价下跌时，他似乎被迫卖掉他是你。你能问查理确认一下是用杠杆买的吗？如果是这样，他为什么要那样做？因为这似乎违背了他的哲学？我收到了几个与此类似的问题。

查理芒格 

嗯，是的，这是真的。在我晚年的很长一段时间里，我都没有杠杆作用，沃伦也是如此。而且，最近，我在另一个地方使用了一点杠杆。因为机会好得离谱。我认为这样做是可取的。所以你是对的。这对我们来说很不寻常。但是我们，我们确实发现了一些东西。顺便说一句，如果你回到我职业生涯的早期，我会使用一些杠杆，我有时会问自己一个心理问题。我说，你净资产的合适百分比是多少？如果你认为它绝对成功，你会把它放入股票吗？好吧，如果你是那种正确的女孩，如果你认为某些东西是必不可少的，那么答案是 100%。或者可能是 150%。但没有人，没有人教人们以这种方式思考融资，但如果你这样做，他就足够伟大了，合乎逻辑的答案是 100%。或者可能是 200%。

贝琪 

其他人写信给我，当他引用你的话时，我面前没有电子邮件，你说真正的人是女士酒和杠杆的三件事，所以你为什么要使用杠杆是这三件事之一那可以摧毁某人？

查理芒格 

好吧，我用了一点点，顺便说一句，沃伦也是如此，巴菲特合伙企业在其生命周期的每一年都会定期使用杠杆，沃伦会做的是他会购买一堆股票，然后他借入和出售股票需要在这些情况下购买，他们过去称其为套利、清算合并等。这并没有随着像独立银行业务和本格雷厄姆的名字那样的市场而下降。这种类型的投资他称之为犹太国库券，我总是觉得他会这样称呼它们，但沃伦使用杠杆购买犹太国库券的方式一直在上升，对他来说效果很好。我也不认为每个人都很好，不仅伯克希尔持有动视暴雪的股票。你可以争辩说他们是否会通过，我不知道。但是但是那是犹太人的国库券。套利。Activision 的套利游戏。嗯，是的，所以我们有套利，但我们有点停止这样做，因为它是如此拥挤的地方。但是这里有一些伯克希尔公司再次这样做，Activision Blizzard 和 Munger 使用了 Daily Journal Corporation 的一点影响力。那么杠杆是不是用那个杠杆来买比亚迪？你可以说这是我为日报做过的最好的事情。所以它利用了三个 L 中最不邪恶的一个，我认为大多数人应该避免，但也许不是每个人都遵守这些规则。我有一个朋友说，年轻人知道规则，老人知道例外。好吧，另一个问题。他活得对吗？你知道。所以我们有套利，但我们有点停止这样做，因为它是如此拥挤的地方。但是这里有一些伯克希尔公司再次这样做，Activision Blizzard 和 Munger 使用了 Daily Journal Corporation 的一点影响力。那么杠杆是不是用那个杠杆来买比亚迪？你可以说这是我为日报做过的最好的事情。所以它利用了三个 L 中最不邪恶的一个，我认为大多数人应该避免，但也许不是每个人都遵守这些规则。我有一个朋友说，年轻人知道规则，老人知道例外。好吧，另一个问题。他活得对吗？你知道。所以我们有套利，但我们有点停止这样做，因为它是如此拥挤的地方。但是这里有一些伯克希尔公司再次这样做，Activision Blizzard 和 Munger 使用了 Daily Journal Corporation 的一点影响力。那么杠杆是不是用那个杠杆来买比亚迪？你可以说这是我为日报做过的最好的事情。所以它利用了三个 L 中最不邪恶的一个，我认为大多数人应该避免，但也许不是每个人都遵守这些规则。我有一个朋友说，年轻人知道规则，老人知道例外。好吧，另一个问题。他活得对吗？你知道。那么杠杆是不是用那个杠杆来买比亚迪？你可以说这是我为日报做过的最好的事情。所以它利用了三个 L 中最不邪恶的一个，我认为大多数人应该避免，但也许不是每个人都遵守这些规则。我有一个朋友说，年轻人知道规则，老人知道例外。好吧，另一个问题。他活得对吗？你知道。那么杠杆是不是用那个杠杆来买比亚迪？你可以说这是我为日报做过的最好的事情。所以它利用了三个 L 中最不邪恶的一个，我认为大多数人应该避免，但也许不是每个人都遵守这些规则。我有一个朋友说，年轻人知道规则，老人知道例外。好吧，另一个问题。他活得对吗？你知道。

贝琪 

另一个问题来自 Brandon McKee。他还询问了阿里巴巴的一些情况，他说，投资者应该如何看待与他们在国外投资有关的地缘政治事件？您如何看待最近关于阿里巴巴投资的中国间谍气球的情况？

查理芒格 

好吧，当然，这是一件非常有趣的事情。马云是阿里巴巴的资本家。有一天，他站起来发表公开演讲，基本上说共产党是可怕的曲棍球。他们不知道肘击的结果。他们一点都不好，而我很聪明。当然，共产党也不太喜欢他的演讲。很快他就从人们的视野中消失了好几个月。现在他去了比亚迪。这是非常超现实的，但这就像用锋利的棍子戳一头熊的鼻子。这不聪明。而且，马云以他对中国政府的方式突然出现，从而越界了。当然，它伤害了阿里巴巴。但我认为阿里巴巴是我在思考阿里巴巴时犯过的最严重的错误之一，我对他们对中国人的立场的想法很着迷。没有停下来意识到它仍然是一个该死的零售商。这将是一个竞争激烈的行业，互联网，它不会对每个人来说都是小菜一碟。

贝琪 

只是关于中国的一般情况。我对此有很多问题。我会问 Wilco 的这个。威尔科射门和多尔夫。它来自加利福尼亚州的核桃溪，他刚刚说过，尽管存在某些缺点，但中国总体上正朝着正确的方向前进。然而，随着中国政府最近采取的行动，例如反复无常地惩罚教育公司的技术，拒绝进口有效的 COVID、疫苗，对台湾的威胁不断升级，您是否仍然认为中国是外国资本的可行投资选择？或者中国是否正在经历与普京领导下的俄罗斯相似的倒退，最终导致对台湾的入侵？

查理芒格 

嗯，这是一个很好的问题，当然。但我认为，由于乌克兰发生的事情，与中国对话的可能性已经下降，而不是上升。我认为中国领导人是一个非常聪明、务实的人。而且它不会冲进那里你们乌克兰人，它看起来像小菜一碟。我不认为台湾看起来像这样的小菜一碟了。我认为它通常会在很长很长一段时间内被搁置。我认为这有助于在中国投资的投资者的前景。另一件对中国前景有帮助的事情是，你可以买到最好的，你可以买到更好、更强大的公司，在中国的估值比你在美国买不到的要便宜。因此，考虑到您获得的额外价值，您获得额外的潮湿风险是值得的。这就是为什么我们在中国，就像我们更喜欢在国外一样。当然，我宁愿在洛杉矶就在我家旁边等，你知道的，这样会更方便。但是我找不到那么多投资，你知道，就在我家旁边。

贝琪 

只是为了跟进，亚历克斯，对。所以 Alex Romanski，对不起，非常小的字体，对吧，以及过去几个月中国的政治事件如何影响你对这个国家的看法，包括我在内的几个人对前任的强行退出感到吃惊金涛主席 在10月22日的年度代表大会上，习主席的权力似乎得到了巩固。而他的行为表明，他对商业和中国社会的作用有着截然不同的看法。

查理芒格 

好吧，我比大多数人更看好中国共产党的领导人。他也做了很多正确的事情，而且，你知道，即使是一点点反腐败运动，他也做了很多事情。正确的。所以我不知道这个人住在哪里。世界上哪里有政府完美的地方，七零。民主国家也经常运行。因此，政府做出一些效果不佳的决定是很自然的。在每个人的生活中做出效果不佳的决定是很自然的。我们生活在一个由传感器所有者决定的世界中。那是，那是，那是，这就是人类在生活中要应对的事情。所以我不期望世界是自由的，你跟着你，错误等等。我只是希望我投资的人有更多好的判断力和坏的判断力。

贝琪 

并从加利福尼亚州的库比蒂诺写信，这是相同的，但更加集中。我们应该如何看待台湾周边的政治政治气候以及对半导体行业的长期影响？具体来说，你看芯片和芯片科学的科学表现如何？

查理芒格 

那么，半导体行业是一个非常奇特的行业。在半导体行业，你必须拿走你赚的所有钱。对于每一代新的筹码，你都会投入之前赚到的所有钱，所以这是你想留在游戏中的所有东西的强制性投资。自然地，我讨厌那样的生意。在伯克希尔，我们喜欢大量的盈余资金进入疲软状态，所有的交易都是如此。而且，当然，现在如果你是它的另一个负责人，比如台积电，那么以这些价格购买它可能是一个不错的选择。我，我一点也不清楚他们不会取得巨大的成功，但这很困难，这对大赢家来说是一个巨大的希望。但这是一项艰巨的业务，需要每个人都用所有的钱不断增加赌注。因此，半导体业务并不完美。但是我记得英特尔赢得世界的时候，英特尔曾经是世界的台积电企业，他们发明了该死的业务。他们统治了它几十年。我不清楚英特尔是否会拥有非常不错的半导体业务，但会远远落后于他们。不，我的回答是它并不像看起来那么万无一失。

贝琪 

即使有在美国这里建厂的激励措施，就像英特尔在俄亥俄州所做的那样。

查理芒格 

好吧，当然，这确实有帮助，但他们是在借钱，没有迹象表明政府会免除贷款或其他什么。是的，这不像是为什么很多业务他们说，好吧，你所有的钱，然后我们来这里是为了保留这笔钱的原因。政府不打算用这些新的半导体贷款来做到这一点。所以这不是一个我觉得我有很多专业知识的领域。我到底对半导体了解多少？

贝琪 

您是否担心政府会对最终使用这些钱的公司施加任何条件，但随后会像半导体或其他任何东西一样？

查理芒格 

好吧，当然，所有这些都与中国和美国的政府政策深深交织在一起，所以我宁愿自己做一些更万无一失的事情。但我确实认为台积电是地球上最强大的半导体公司。所以我，我非常钦佩他们所取得的成就。他们取得的成就令人难以置信。

贝琪 

说你喜欢的东西，更好，

查理芒格 

也许是一项很棒的投资，事实上我不喜欢它，因为我和老人都不喜欢学习新技巧。这并不意味着它不适合一些比我更了解它的年轻人。

贝琪 

好吧，实际上，那是我要换档。我们稍后会回到这个问题。但这让我想到了本杰明写的关于加密的这个问题。他在 2007 年说，在南加州大学法学院，查理说，除非我能更好地陈述反对我立场的论点，否则我无权就这个问题发表意见比支持它的人。问题是，这是否也适用于《华尔街日报》关于禁止加密货币的文章？如果是，你愿意分享反对你立场的论点吗？

查理芒格 

好吧，我认为没有很好的论据反对我的立场，我认为反对我立场的人都是白痴。所以我认为没有理由反对我的立场。这是一件不可思议的事情。自然地，人们喜欢在别人输了的地方跑下来躲起来。以及发明这种加密货币 crapple 的人，这是我的名字。有时我称它为 crypto crapple。有时他们称之为加密狗屎。荒谬的是，任何人都会买这种东西，但事实并非如此。地球上几乎什么都想不到。没有比货币、国家货币更适合人类的了。他们绝对需要让我从哦该死的成功猿身上打开。现代成功的人类和人类文明使所有这些便利的交流成为可能。因此，如果有人说我要创造某种东西并在某种程度上取代国家货币，那就像是在说，我要取代国家空气，你知道，这是愚蠢的。甚至有点傻。这是非常愚蠢的。当然，这是非常危险的。当然，政府完全错了，谁允许呢。当然，我不会为我的国家允许这种废话而感到自豪。我称之为加密狗屎。这是毫无价值的。这不好。这很疯狂。它只会带来伤害。允许它是反社会的。做出正确决定的人是中国领导人，中国领导人看了一眼加密狗屎。他说不在我的中国。繁荣，哦，好吧，中国没有任何加密狗屎。他是对的，我们是错的。对方也没有很好的论据，我被取消了。什么 这就像在说，我要更换国家空气，你知道，这是愚蠢的。甚至有点傻。这是非常愚蠢的。当然，这是非常危险的。当然，政府完全错了，谁允许呢。当然，我不会为我的国家允许这种废话而感到自豪。我称之为加密狗屎。这是毫无价值的。这不好。这很疯狂。它只会带来伤害。允许它是反社会的。做出正确决定的人是中国领导人，中国领导人看了一眼加密狗屎。他说不在我的中国。繁荣，哦，好吧，中国没有任何加密狗屎。他是对的，我们是错的。对方也没有很好的论据，我被取消了。什么 这就像在说，我要更换国家空气，你知道，这是愚蠢的。甚至有点傻。这是非常愚蠢的。当然，这是非常危险的。当然，政府完全错了，谁允许呢。当然，我不会为我的国家允许这种废话而感到自豪。我称之为加密狗屎。这是毫无价值的。这不好。这很疯狂。它只会带来伤害。允许它是反社会的。做出正确决定的人是中国领导人，中国领导人看了一眼加密狗屎。他说不在我的中国。繁荣，哦，好吧，中国没有任何加密狗屎。他是对的，我们是错的。对方也没有很好的论据，我被取消了。什么 当然，这是非常危险的。当然，政府完全错了，谁允许呢。当然，我不会为我的国家允许这种废话而感到自豪。我称之为加密狗屎。这是毫无价值的。这不好。这很疯狂。它只会带来伤害。允许它是反社会的。做出正确决定的人是中国领导人，中国领导人看了一眼加密狗屎。他说不在我的中国。繁荣，哦，好吧，中国没有任何加密狗屎。他是对的，我们是错的。对方也没有很好的论据，我被取消了。什么 当然，这是非常危险的。当然，政府完全错了，谁允许呢。当然，我不会为我的国家允许这种废话而感到自豪。我称之为加密狗屎。这是毫无价值的。这不好。这很疯狂。它只会带来伤害。允许它是反社会的。做出正确决定的人是中国领导人，中国领导人看了一眼加密狗屎。他说不在我的中国。繁荣，哦，好吧，中国没有任何加密狗屎。他是对的，我们是错的。对方也没有很好的论据，我被取消了。什么 允许它是反社会的。做出正确决定的人是中国领导人，中国领导人看了一眼加密狗屎。他说不在我的中国。繁荣，哦，好吧，中国没有任何加密狗屎。他是对的，我们是错的。对方也没有很好的论据，我被取消了。什么 允许它是反社会的。做出正确决定的人是中国领导人，中国领导人看了一眼加密狗屎。他说不在我的中国。繁荣，哦，好吧，中国没有任何加密狗屎。他是对的，我们是错的。对方也没有很好的论据，我被取消了。什么

贝琪 

这是否与你所说的相反，你不应该有一个立场和

查理芒格 

我不认为你应该能够，你应该能够避开很多问题你应该是社会安全网应该有多大？这是理性的头脑可能不同意的地方。而且你应该能够从另一面陈述你所相信的情况。但是当你处理像加密这样糟糕的事情时，你应该是无法形容的。这绝对是一种恐怖，我为我的国家感到羞耻，这么多人相信这种废话。而政府允许它存在的是完全绝对疯狂的，愚蠢的赌博，对面的人有巨大的庄家赔率，他们除了作弊和赌博之外还作弊。这太疯狂了。所以对于聪明人来说只有一个正确答案。完全避免它。

贝琪 

您如何看待在超级碗上发生的赌博以及目前在该国合法赌博中发生的赌博？

查理芒格 

好吧，它不像加密狗屎那么糟糕。我不认为投注适度的赌注有什么害处，你可以负担得起一场让我印象深刻的超级碗比赛，你知道我们是和朋友而不是赌徒一起玩的。所以我没有，我没有同样的感觉。显然，我认为您不应该赌博和逃避赔率。如果你愿意拿走我赌一辈子的钱。我不认为它超过几美元 1,000。

贝琪 

艾伦·凯 (Alan Kay) 来信，他说如果我全都赞成，老兄，有几率就有几率，是的。Alan Kay 写道，我敢肯定他说如果 Munger 先生认为比特币和 Aetherium 是老鼠药，他有没有通过做空它们获利？

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不，我不做空。我一生中做过三次卖空。而且都是30多年前的事了。一个广告是一种货币，并且有两个股票交易。它是两个股票交易。我在一个上赚了很多钱，在另一个上赚了很多钱，然后他们取消了我的货币赌注，我赚了 100 万美元，但这对我来说是一种非常恼人的方式。我停下了

贝琪 

不值得头疼。我想你可以

查理芒格 

笑。但事实就是如此。这很烦人。因为你担心。好吧，就像我要求你增加保证金一样。我一直在寄国库券。这是非常不愉快的。最后我赚了，但我再也不想这样做了。

贝琪 

查理，我说过我会回到这个问题上。这是关于您喜欢的投资，来自魁北克蒙特利尔的 Amit Patel 说您喜欢 Costco。因此，从长远来看，您认为会伤害 Costco 的是经济护城河。

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好吧，只要 Costco 保持信念、强大的文化和极低的加价政策，我就不会停止。麻烦的是，它的市盈率是 40 倍。但除此之外，它是一家完美的该死的公司。它有一个美好的未来。它拥有美妙的文化，由优秀的人经营，我喜欢 Costco 的一切。我完全上瘾了。我永远不会出售股票。

贝琪 

下一个问题来自大卫卡斯，他是马里兰大学的金融学教授。他说他是 Daily Journal Corporation 的股东，如果你不回答其中一个问题，我将不胜感激。我要问他的问题是拜登总统提议将股票回购税从目前的 1% 提高到 4% 的新的更高水平。您对对股票回购征税有何看法？

查理芒格 

好吧，我强烈反对。因为我认为如果你是一个好的文化，那么很多人都是好的受托人。这就像偷你用公司的钱做一些愚蠢的事情。一旦你得到更多的家伙，你的肩膀就会买回你自己的股票。我喜欢鼓励道德、正派和荣誉，以及你与受托人的一些交易。所以我在某些事情上同意我们总统的观点，但这不是其中之一。

贝琪 

他们至少不同意。什么强烈反对，再说一遍，你强烈反对吗？

查理芒格 

好吧，我并不激烈，因为它不像加密货币那么糟糕，这是一个可以原谅的错误。但是，是的，我不同意。强烈。我认为采用该政策是一个很大的错误。但你知道，我是共和党人 ii 有时投票给民主党人，但我是共和党人。

贝琪 

Ed Princeville 提出了关于股票回购的问题。在新泽西州的莫里斯敦。他说，伯克希尔的股票回购从 2022 年第一季度的 30 亿美元大幅放缓至第二季度的 10 亿美元和第三季度的 10 亿美元。尽管价格相对于一般市场有所下跌，但人们会认为回购会随着股价的下跌而增加。伯克希尔是根据约3000亿美元股票投资组合的内在价值还是报价来调整回购价格。

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我从不注意他们是怎么做到的。他们是，他们是谨慎小心的人。但如果你把过去三年回购的数量算进去，那就很多了。我完全赞成我们正在做的事情。我完全不明白我们正在被征税，或者为我们自己的股东做些好事。

贝琪 

总统今天阐述了这个案子，我认为他说了 90% 的高管都获得了股票补偿，至少部分是这样，他说也许这是昨天他说的，他说这不公平。增加你自己薪酬的最好方法是回购你的股票。所以它帮助了高管，它帮助我们了解了股东，但它对员工或其他选民没有帮助。

查理芒格 

嗯，毫无疑问，他更同情员工，这是可以理解的。在这个问题上，很多人都知道总统的立场。我对国家应该如何分配财富没有太大的看法。我认为。我不知道答案。我确实认为我们需要一个资本主义制度。我们希望拥有一个生产性经济，使其更容易进步。

贝琪 

好吧，下一个问题来自迈克尔，我想他姓莫斯科。但我将根据电子邮件中的地址进行访问，而不是给出姓氏。他说他是伯克希尔哈撒韦的长期股东，最近读了一篇令人恼火的《巴伦周刊》文章，该文章称，伯克希尔股东可能会在沃伦之后受益，因为公司可能面临分拆的压力，我看不出我们的业务被打破会如何受益就像你和沃伦长期留在公司一样，整个公司比一个部门更强大，而且一个部门总是可以增加另一个有需要的部门。他说他知道沃伦和查理说过，在你离开后，目前的结构和理念将得到保留。我希望非常，我希望不会很长时间，但是，

查理芒格 

好吧，我认为这根本不可能，它会被打破很长很长一段时间。很多公司死了比活着还值钱。以整个企业的当前价格。你可以以更高的价格出售东西，他们只有在股东支付高额税款时才会这样做，然后你就会遇到如何处理这些钱的问题等等。我认为考虑了所有因素以及伯克希尔在价格合理时买卖股票。我认为伯克希尔是股东未来长期持有的一个非常好的赌注。而且我不认为这有什么困难。它没有被打破。它工作得非常好。每个购买伯克希尔并持有它 20 年的人都做得很好。我认为对于那些以当前价格购买的人来说也是如此。

贝琪 

压力的可能性如何？我

查理芒格 

不要认为它在未来会像过去那样好，但它会好的，考虑到其他一切都会做的不好。

贝琪 

为什么你认为其他一切都会做得这么差？

查理芒格 

因为估值现在开始走高。因为政府对企业如此敌对？

贝琪 

这是对未来 510 20 年的看法，您认为有多远？

查理芒格 

我会说它会在主管部门之间自然波动等等。但是，但我认为，基本上世界文化将在大民主国家变得越来越反商业，而且我认为税收会增加而不是减少。所以我认为在投资界对每个人来说都会变得更难。但过去对于投资阶层来说，这几乎太容易了。这很自然，有一段苦日子也未必太过担心。他不会死的。不，它不会打扰我。

贝琪 

我猜你可能想让你的 99 Nobody 长生不老。这就是你所指的。你现在没有生病。正确的？

查理芒格 

现在我正在吃这种叛逆的好处。如果你想活到 99 岁，那就是你想做的。

贝琪 

我们确实得到了一些写信的人

查理芒格 

为自己的产品做广告，但这是长寿的关键。

贝琪 

我可以看到我自己 早前的雄鹿，我们没有很多人写问题只是问你的日常习惯是什么，你每天做什么，如果你锻炼如果你想在你年轻的时候锻炼很多对长寿很重要。

查理芒格 

好吧，那是一个非常，我几乎没有锻炼，除了陆军航空队让我锻炼的时候。我这辈子几乎没有刻意锻炼过。我喜欢网球之类的活动，我会锻炼身体。但在最初的九年里，我根本没有做任何运动。

贝琪 

而且您不打算很快更改它。

查理芒格 

不，不，我不会改变。

史蒂文·迈克尔·琼斯 

其他人的里程可能会有所不同。是的。

贝琪 

我正在寻找有人写的一个问题，因为我想正确地措辞。这和你刚才说的有关系吗？如果我能找到它，这里有很多问题。哦，在这里。有人说这是来自澳大利亚的一个 DD。你生命中的第 100 天会是什么样子？当你早上起床时，你想怎么花？

查理芒格 

好吧，这些天我起床坐下，坐在轮椅上。所以我为年老付出了一些代价，但我宁愿它也不愿死去。每当我感到悲伤时，也许坐在轮椅上，我想好吧，你知道，罗斯福在轮椅上统治了整个该死的国家 12 年。所以我只是想在这里建立这个领域，这样他们就可以像罗斯福那样持续下去。

贝琪 

这是个好计划。我喜欢。其他人在这篇文章中写道是亚当米德。他说，查理，在你 1995 年的演讲中，判断小姐的心理学，你将情绪列为他判断的原因。你说像我这样的老年人无需在掩饰与年龄相关的退化方面的努力就变得非常熟练，因为像衣服这样的社会习俗隐藏了很多衰退。你接着说这种下降是不可避免的。他说，查理，你是我的英雄，我怀着最大的敬意向你提出了这个问题，但当 71 岁的查理只是为了相信 99 岁查理的判断力和心智能力时，觉得有必要问这个问题吗？

查理芒格 

好吧，毫无疑问，随着年龄的增长，你会失去一些精神敏锐度，但有些人会更精明地适应他们的局限性，而且他们做得很好。到目前为止，我已经经历了很多衰退，但我对自己处理它的方式非常精明。到目前为止，我晚年的成绩还算不错。所以我将是一个不同的主题。

贝琪 

好吧，我会向人们指出，我们没有提前给你任何这些问题。所以你在盲目提问。为了劳拉。是的，在这方面也花了很长时间。好的，我该如何跟进？这是另一个问题。这又回到了我们一分钟前刚刚谈到的投资。但迈克尔季刊写道，考虑到利率不断上升的环境，放弃接近零利率政策的后果是什么，沃伦和你自己经常谈到伊索。以一鸟在手胜于二鸟在树丛中来形容投资决策的精髓。那么，现在利率环境发生变化，您会怎么做？

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好吧，利率上升这一事实毫无疑问，它对股价不利。但它们应该上升，但我们不能将它们永远保持在零。而且，我只是认为适应他只是一件该死的事情。投资生活是有逆风和顺风的。不利因素之一是通货膨胀。考虑到民主政治、政治和民主的本质，我认为未来 100 年更多的通货膨胀是不可避免的。所以我认为我们会有更多的通货膨胀。这就是关于证券而不是政府债券的日报拥有普通股而不是政府债券的原因之一。

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当你说民主政策的性质时，我忘了你是怎么说的，你是在说民主党吗？你是在谈论民主作为

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特朗普的赤字比民主党还大，这一切都是民主的，民主国家的所有政客都倾向于印钞和花钱，这会随着时间的推移导致一些通货膨胀吗？它可能会避免更少的会议，所以它可能并非全是坏事，但弊大于利，我认为从现在开始。

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好的，关于这一点，罗恩。Tree rotolight Ron Tortola 说我们应该继续维持债务限额吗？调整过程似乎是一个非常简单和机械的过程。然而，这样的措施似乎只会营造一种充斥着政治博弈和狙击的环境。如果我们继续超出我们的能力预算，目的何在？然后账单来了？

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好吧，如果你看看世界民主的历史，回溯得足够远，它会失败很多，并被独裁统治和各种可怕的事情所取代。而且，事实上，我一生中发生在人类身上的最糟糕的事情是，像德国这样的先进文明被阿德尔·希特勒这样可怕的独裁者接管了。发生这种情况是因为如果我们没有大萧条，世界范围内的大萧条就永远不会发生。一旦希特勒介入，这意味着第二次世界大战是不可避免的。对于像美国人这样的人来说，这可能会比它更糟糕。所以这些东西非常重要。而且，它们在未来不会完美地完成，就像过去一样完美。所以 所以，当然，你必须预料到世界上未来会有一定数量的麻烦，你的政府会做一些不完全正确的事情。另一方面，我认为美国政府在某些事情上做得非常正确。我曾多次说过，如果这让我为我自己的政府感到自豪，那就是我们处理第二次世界大战续集的方式。我们没有惩罚德国人和日本人，而是把他们变成了僵尸 Best Friends on earth。现在那是一个噱头。这是我们国家的功劳。这是唯一的两党基础。我认为我们都可以为这是一件明智的事情而感到自豪。这需要一些慷慨，我们不得不放弃一些钱来帮助他们重建。确实，我们在药物治疗方面表现良好，这是我们物种的功劳。而且我不认为我们未来的行为会像 Alexa 那样，出现某种类似的情节，但缺少类似的情节，或者某些事情是非常正确的，而某些事情是非常错误的。那就是，这就是发生的方式。是的，

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那很教会。我问对了 他们会尝试一切，尝试所有错误、错误的事情，然后做正确的事情。

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不，我会的。我会继续做对的罗宾。就在前面，如你所见，

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嗯，Charlie Owl Piton 从芝加哥写信想知道，如果你认为我们可能会像沃尔克介入美联储之前所做的那样断断续续地出现通货膨胀浪潮。和70年代

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马会发生一些未来？是的。我想我们将来会有一些。

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您认为我们现在是否立即了解 Jay Powell 正在处理的问题？我

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不我不我不，我不把自己。我认为我很擅长长期预期。但我认为我不擅长短期波动。我不知道。最微不足道的想法是短期内会发生什么。

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好吧，让我问这个作为跟进，它很相似。你可能也不想回答这个问题。但杰克迪拉德说，你对杰伊鲍威尔有信心吗？你期待软着陆吗？

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好吧，这就是我对杰伊保罗的感觉，我觉得他和我们有权利期待的一样好吗？我认为他是可敬的，聪明的，并且尽力而为。而且我不觉得我认识很多人做得更好。所以我有所以我很高兴我们有他。

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查理，另一个问题来自宾夕法尼亚州费城的克里斯。他说你已经建议普通投资者使用指数基金，因为这些指数基金的规模不断扩大，它们对公司董事会的影响力以及最终的管理层不断增加。这种集中在少数指数基金手中的投票令我震惊。您是否也认为这种集中度令人担忧？您会建议进行哪些改革来解决该问题？

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好吧，当然，这是一个非常严重的问题，因为它的能量是巨大的。有一段时间，指数基金总是觉得自己突然变得像上帝一样可以净化世界。但 Vanguard 已经放弃了该政策。我这么认为是明智的。我有一些希望，你认为会跟进。我认为这些不影响国家政策和政治的指数基金并不明智。仅仅因为他们是指数基金，我认为他们应该满足于消除投资管理中的一些愚蠢行为并为他们的客户做得更好，我认为他们做得很好。我认为他们应该对此感到高兴，而不是试图将整个该死的国家作为公司治理问题来管理。我不认为 Vanguard 或 Larry 的任何人认为运营在美国公司应该如何运营方面有任何特殊的天才。他们要求我做这个或那个的程度，我希望他们停止。

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那是肯定要做什么的哦，跟着做。他们是，他们是

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只是对他们对伯克希尔的看法不感兴趣。

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好的，下一个问题来自 Carsten federoff，他是来自德国德国的股票分析师。而他的问题是，股票薪酬是一种流行的激励薪酬手段，也是很多公司都喜欢的。在某些情况下，这些达到了惊人的比例，感觉就像公司在竞相竞相出价。在一些公司中，20% 的销售额以股票薪酬的形式支付。您如何看待近年来的发展？什么是重物？什么是健康的激励水平？

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好吧，我认为你会在美国公司中发现非常好的激励制度，而另一些则过于宽松，另一些则过于吝啬。你对人性还有什么期望，但一定程度的多样性。我同意在许多公司中，其中一些，每个人都会投票允许获得基于股票的补偿，你没有计算在计算收益中。他们只是想要任何让收入看起来更高的该死的方法。这只是人的本性。当然，他们希望自己像一个去上学的小孩一样，他们希望取得好成绩，而不是坏成绩。因此，可以肯定的是，公司过多是一个大问题。在某些地方付款，其他地方如 Costco，我想说补偿系统该死的近乎完美。是的，而且有相当数量的库存，正确的？但我们总是在 Costco 购买足够的股票来支付股票。我们正在为高科技领域的很多人做股票的发行，但他们没有，他们不买。所以这是一种错觉。我认为美国的薪酬体系有很多错误。而且，但是为什么不顺便说一句，当我年轻的时候，情况还不错。这是过去 50 年发生的事情。我不知道这只是事情发展的历史，更大的困难和开拓精神或其他什么，当我年轻的时候，没有人抱怨高管薪酬。现在坦率地说，投资界的每个人都认为，在很多情况下，高管薪酬太高了，通用电气在其鼎盛时期受到了打击，想想所有的大薪酬方案，他们付了钱，想想他们打电话给所有的收入等等来支付它，这很恶心。当然，如果这种垃圾在我们的文明中无处不在，文明就会灭亡。我们需要更多的荣誉，而不是更少。而且，但我没有任何关于如何修复过度的地方的建议。这是一个非常困难的问题。

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Jeffrey Malloy 来信问了这个问题，他来自旧金山。他说，你认为 Elon Musk 对 Twitter 的所有权，特别是他对内容审核的不干涉方式对美国社会是好是坏？

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好吧，你知道，我不使用 Twitter。所以在这个问题上我不是一个好的判断者。我对 Elan Musk 的看法是，他是一个非常有才华的人，但也可能很奇特，所以我不买他，也不卖空他。我只是说，好吧，他是一个非常不寻常的人。

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上次我和你谈话时，他说了一些关于他的好话，以及他对特斯拉所做的事情。

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哦，真是难以置信。除了比亚迪还有谁做到了，这恰恰说明了资本主义的艰难。即使你是天才，天才，就像马斯克在某些方面一样。总有一些比亚迪出来并且做得更好。资本主义并不容易。

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对，这个问题来自加利福尼亚州科斯塔梅萨的 Jeremy Salzburg。他说查理去年在 2022 年，密苏里州法院判给受害人 520 万美元的赔偿金，原因是伯克希尔子公司 Geico 支付了一名妇女在 GEICO 汽车保险投保的汽车中感染性病。索赔人说，这名男子疏忽大意，没有告诉她他的健康诊断。你的祖父是一名法官，你有法律背景。密苏里州法院做出了这个判决吗？正确的？

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好吧，我自己不会怀疑。但是，事情的本质并不是每个法院都会为每个判决写信给每个人。而且，我确实认为允许你加薪是一个非常棘手的问题。你偶尔会得到完全离谱的判决。而且这是不可避免的。当然，这就是上诉法院的职责，但有时上诉法院会对疯狂的判决表示同情。再一次，我无法解决你生活中的所有问题，包括一些疯狂的判决。

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不过，您将其归类为疯狂的判决。好，当然。这个问题来自 Stefan Armand，他是从多伦多写信的，伯克希尔和 3g 之间在卡夫亨氏交易中的关系令人兴奋，因为你对私募股权业务的看法在这种伙伴关系的支持下发生了变化。

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好吧，就像地球上的每个其他人一样，其他人比其他人或 3G 更好。他们希望有一种方法可以回过头来，将所有糟糕的交易变成好交易。如果我们也没有得到它，伯克希尔希望有相同的选择。平均下来 3G 表现相当不错。但最近他们的一些方法并没有奏效。近年来并不理想。再一次，欢迎来到人类生活这不是那么容易。

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RT presser 写道，佛罗里达州州长和立法机构最近采取了立场，试图控制迪斯尼的独家自治机构，该机构先前是在创始人沃尔特·迪斯尼作为你的组织在佛罗里达州设立的，我想，我的意思是，DJ co 仍然持有迪士尼股份。在这种背景下，您认为迪士尼股票仍然是一项不错的投资吗？

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我们从未拥有过迪士尼股票。不，但迪士尼是一个有趣的案例。坦率地说，迪士尼拥有的每一项业务都比过去更加艰难。再次欢迎来到人类生活。想想迪斯尼曾经在世界上。狮子王在纽约剧院区长跑。他们从凯旋前进，前进，前进。突然之间，几乎所有方面都变得更加困难。这就是发生的事情。想象一下完全统治世界摄影的柯达，以及这种新票证技术的出现。柯达消灭了它的普通股股东。

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你认为迪斯尼也在走同样的路吗？你认为那里能够转动吗？我的意思是，我知道你遵循

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迪士尼拥有大量资产。但是拥有一些东西是不愉快的。您想如何开展这项运动？ESPN 现在的迪士尼相比全盛时期？对他们来说会更难。在我看来，电影电影也将是一场大屠杀。所以这并不容易。很容易。在 ESPN 的鼎盛时期，迪斯尼从 ESPN 这座金矿中赚到的只是钱。

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至于其他电影业务，我想到的是派拉蒙，这是伯克希尔现在拥有的巨大股份。最近。

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我住在派拉蒙影城的几个街区内。我什至不认识派拉蒙的任何人。作为投资者，我一生都像躲避瘟疫一样避开电影。我从来没有以任何方式、形式或形式对电影业务进行过投资。它总是给我柳树。我不喜欢工会。我不喜欢疯狂的特工。我不喜欢那些该死的疯狂律师。我不喜欢疯狂的电影明星。我不喜欢那些向他们出售毒品的人。音乐家。关于它的一切都不是我的文化。我喜欢那些英国老演员过来的时候。你知道，我和他一起长大。但基本上，电影与我不同。所以我已经我已经避免了它对人们或其中一个人来说总是非常困难。它可能是作为演员、作家、某人或音乐家谋生的好地方。

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这是一个有趣的问题。我来自密尔沃基的埃里克，谁说自从你出生以来，世界人口被认为增加了四倍以上？请注意，我不追究你个人的责任。但是已经有那么大的增长。是否存在对人类最大的生存威胁是人口和人类的增长？如果是这样，我们如何辨别该点何时到达？

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嗯，这是一个有趣的话题。如果你看看过去发生的事情的方式，你会得出这样的结论，虽然它们就像死了一样，但世界正在走向一场绝对的人口灾难，但实际发生的情况却大不相同。发生的事情是，随着世界变得越来越繁荣，包括在中国这样的地方，出生率一直在下降、下降、下降、下降。因此，在日本等地，这实际上是一种人口短缺。所以所有伟大的专家根据过去的图表进行推断的生产并不是完全错误的。现在看来，发达国家的世界人口似乎有点自我限制。

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我的意思是，这有点让你和埃隆·马斯克站在同一个阵营，他提出了一些相同的论点，即人口确实在减少，这对人类构成了更大的威胁。

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正如我所说，他是个聪明人。有时。

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Danny Poland 写道，在评估企业管理层的品格和能力时，你有没有犯过错误？如果是这样，这是什么时候发生的？你从这次经历中学到了什么？

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好吧，每个人都会犯错。我是其中之一，实际上，我一生中发生的最有趣的事情之一是 IBM 的崛起和 IBM 的衰落。在我年轻的大部分时间里，IBM 是美国最受尊敬的公司。他们只是不时地游行 在过去的 10 或 15 年里，他们溜进去了。与他们所在领域的其他人相比，他们正在倒退，因为苹果和谷歌等领先，只是 IBM，他们有点错过了机会。我认为这几乎是不可避免的。柯达也错过了改变数码摄影的机会。我听说比尔盖茨说这几乎是一条规则，真正的颠覆性技术伴随着现任者搞砸了他们对它的反应。当他们已经成功了很长时间，很难改变你的方式，并进入一种完全不同的行为方式。

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对了，这个问题在哪里

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我们与一家日报公司坐在一起，我们正在适应新世界，这与出版报纸没有什么不同，并且正在嵌入软件记录以实现自动化。这是两种截然不同的业务。

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这个问题来自一个叫 Jean 的人，他说，Munger 先生，您认为目前在美国我们是否存在系统性种族主义？我们有什么系统性种族主义？

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好吧，我想我们得到了所以我确定。当然，你会有一定程度的敌意，一个群体对另一个群体，整个人类历史，我们都有过一定程度的仇恨。我认为它在我的一生中变得更好了。但是，我认为种族主义已经减少。很多。

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查理，这个问题来自尼尔达斯，他说，你认为保险业在未来 25 年内会因为气候变化而受到什么影响？

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好吧，我不确定我只是去回答那种问题。

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您是否提高了任何一家伯克希尔保险公司的利率？我不

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想我不认为我知道我特别好。我认为气候变化很有可能没有所有人想象的那么重要。这并不意味着它不重要。但我认为它不会是一个绝对的傻瓜按钮或没有可能进入它的容量。只是

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等待，因为有时当我等待时，你会说更多事情。但我会给你时间。好的。让我从 Tony Huang 回答这个问题。他说，他在布卢明顿的印第安纳大学给本科生讲授个人理财概论和公司理财概论，大部分学生都是非金融专业的。这很可能是他们在大学里选修的唯一一门金融课程。他应该教他们什么，结合您多年来发表的尽可能多的著作和演讲，以便他们具备在以后的生活中有效处理个人或公司财务问题的基础和常识？

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好吧，这实际上是一个好问题，因为这是一个大问题。如果你有良好的判断力，你的生活会比你的判断力差的好得多。随着时间的推移，你会逐渐获得良好的判断力，部分原因是做出错误的判断并让它们表现不佳。所以我的建议一直是努力变得更好并继续做下去，不断努力改善你的生活。你有机会了。你不那样做，你就没有机会了。所以我常说我只能教别人几乎知道的东西。当他悬在边缘时，我可以在休息时间告诉他们。但是，如果那个人甚至不在几英里之内，我从不公开我永远不会成功。要注册，我们很容易我代表失败。我从来没有成功过。

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如果你在大学里有一个全是金融专业学生的班级，你会朝那个方向推进什么，也许是我会教的为数不多的课程之一

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那些可以在长辈那里学习的人跟不上他们的山坡就无法改善无法改善。我只是我不相信任何人我的头靠在墙上。顺便说一下，这就是大多数教育的作用所在。他们只是抛弃那些跟不上的人。这就是学术界的工作方式。这就是它在顶部变得如此出色的原因。我昨天在一个很棒的地方与一位法学教授通过 Zoom 进行了交谈。我知道这是一个令人钦佩的人。他真是该死的聪明而且弹跳。极好的。但他是一位非常资深的法学教师，是世界上最伟大的法学院之一。所以我希望他会很好，但他不仅仅是很好。他很棒。而且我认为我的学业很有竞争力。你知道，当你在一个好地方升到教授的顶峰时，你会发现一些非常了不起的人。和，但是他们做不到的，他们能完成的事情是有限度的。他们培养出如此优秀人才的原因之一是他们接纳了如此优秀的人才，这是他们的秘诀。他们无法修复云层。没有人可以。古语道强爱霸道，霸道到永远。

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Diamond diamonds Alejandro Salcedo 在他的文章中写道，他说阅读了许多企业家和名人的著作，他们总是说你必须拥有远大的梦想。相反，你说，查理，幸福生活的秘诀在于低期望值。你能详细说明一下吗？

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什么 是的，您可以通过一次前进一英寸来尽可能地努力攀登。这就是生命的秘密。现在总有一些有点疯狂的人成功了。但这就是每个失败次数超过 1000 次的人。

贝琪 

这是对过度交付情况的承诺不足吗？

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好吧，当然，到底谁是对的？我喜欢到处做很多承诺，一次又一次地失败，但做你承诺要做的事情。每个人都会讨厌你，对吧？没有比失败更能让人们讨厌你的方法了，而且他们是合理的期望。所以，当然，你希望过一种大体上满足他人合理期望的生活。这就是文明对我们所有人的要求。

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查理，来自中国的一个叫乔·罗丹的人，他说他是来自中国的投资者。他很抱歉，今年他不能与你面对面。他想问你一个关于疫情期间生活的问题。他说我总是给家里的长辈一些建议，比如在家里避免高温和跌倒。但在大流行期间，特别是自中国重新开放以来，我可以卖给他们任何建议，除了呆在家里接种疫苗。那么作为一个聪明的老人，您在大流行期间是否感染了COVID，您如何保持健康？你对这些长辈有什么建议？

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我确实感染了新冠病毒。但我是在接种疫苗后感染的，我有大约 10 分钟的轻微鼻塞。那是我的新冠肺炎。但我在那段时间检测呈阳性。并且，并在总体思路上谨慎调整。我有很多年长的朋友，他们要么死了，要么因跌倒而受了重伤。所以当我自己变老时，有时间使用一些东西来避免摔倒。人们试图拐杖出卖我。但我注意到我的朋友会使用手杖，偶尔会摔倒。所以我从来没有用过该死的手杖。相反，我买了一个这样的现代助行器，只要我担心摔倒，我就会推助行器，我这样做了六年半。六年半我从来没有摔倒过一次，只是因为我比较谨慎。这是我对老年人的建议，只是要更加谨慎。现在我已经坐上轮椅了。我可能还有六年半的时间。但我已经用完了，而且我对我的轮椅也很谨慎。多加小心有什么害处？

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这说得通。当我转向 Frank Wang 和得克萨斯州休斯顿的一个问题时，这个关于伯克希尔的问题，他说伯克希尔之前在埃克森美孚持仓，然后很快退出。如果我没记错的话，他说我相信你说过伯克希尔当时认为这是现金的一个很好的替代品，这与伯克希尔的新职位以及西方和雪佛龙的想法相同。是同一种思维吗？或者它可能更像是伯克希尔未来的长期持有？

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嗯，这是一个很好的问题。而且我认为通过这两家公司在二叠纪盆地拥有重要地位很可能是一个非常非常好的长期持有。所以我喜欢那个职位的那个方面。Ben Graham 曾经说过，如果这是一项好的投资，那可能就是一个好的投机，我认为这通常是正确的，但我不做那些短期投机，至少不经常这样做。但我喜欢伯克希尔通过这些在二叠纪拥有的重要地位，我有点钦佩这两个地方。很多。西方和雪佛龙都是非常令人钦佩的地方。而且，顺便说一句，如果你不是那样开始的，你就会回到过去 30 年、40 年，他是个骗子。它是一个，它已经发展成为一个美妙的地方，但它开始时是一个 sleazebag。

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谁在 30 或 40 年前跑步。

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一个名叫阿尔芒·哈默的人。哦，在你的时间之前，贝基，你太年轻了。

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我知道。小阿米·哈默。是啊是啊。反正。好吧，保罗，D 写道，我相信这就是 Dan mcop 所说的，查理，你很大程度上归功于沃伦巴菲特以合理的价格购买伟大企业的演变，或者简单地说，愿意为伟大的企业付出代价, 鉴于本格雷厄姆对投资的非凡洞察力和理解，他自己如何或为什么没有进化到预见到无法扩展他的净雪茄屁股方法？你认为你早期愿意支付的原因是什么？

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请记住，本·格雷厄姆 (Ben Graham) 人生的很多起起落落都发生在平庸的企业中有大量唾手可得的果实的时期，这些企业的成本太低了。而且他很少在那个花园里打猎，所以他靠膝盖过着相当不错的生活。事情是这样的，随着大萧条的余波消失，低垂的果实最终消失了。然后格雷厄姆实际上从一只股票中赚取了他一生中赚到的所有钱的一半以上。那只股票是 Geico，这是一项伟大的业务。所以如果你真的看看这位伟人自己的生活，你就会发现他所教导的并不是他自己致富的方式。顺便说一句，他在晚年讲述了自己的故事。与你前世所做的一切相比，他仔细计算了他赚了多少。

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什么？为什么你认为你很早就愿意提出为伟大的企业付出代价的想法？

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好吧，因为它很明显，而且我擅长做显而易见的事情。当然，很明显，如果你想取得好成绩，你必须去一家伟大的公司，你知道，我认识到伟大并不好，你知道，这没什么大不了的。查理芒格，天才认大为善。当然伟大是好的。

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来自加拿大多伦多的保罗写道，他说，当你评估一家公司的潜在投资时，你最看重的是业务还是管理层？当谈到你把什么放在第一位时，你与沃伦有什么不同吗？

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不，不，是一样的。我认为我们首先喜欢业务。其次，我们需要一位出色的经理。但是我们并没有通过投资优秀的经理人来取得巨大的成功，他们管理糟糕的业务，这不是我们崛起的方式。

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马特麦卡利斯特

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有一个糟糕的经理，你真的需要一个伟大的企业。

贝琪 

糟糕的经理能经营一家伟大的企业吗？反之。

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所以有时，可口可乐公司由一个患有严重精神障碍的人经营多年。导演们只是假设他喝醉了。而今天，他们是，你在这里。现在这是一个很棒的生意，你可以有精神缺陷，但写得很好，这就是可口可乐的广告。

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我们谈的有多远？

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嗯，25 年。

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让其他人计算一下时间。马特·麦卡利斯特 (Matt McAllister) 写道，查理，你将过多的多元化描述为最糟糕的窒息，充其量是制定战略的平均回报。考虑到这一点，如果只允许一个人长期持有一只股票。这将是对他和他的家人以及他们未来的幸福最重要的资产，请描述您希望在该股票或公司中寻找什么，并谈谈您在尝试时认为最重要的特征弄明白了吗？

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好吧，有人说，让我们进入一个好的位置是有帮助的。如此伟大的企业，它会是你想要的。当然，您希望出色的管理人员能够做到。偶尔，我们一起骑行了很长很长一段时间。当然，每个人都在寻找同样的东西。麻烦的是，当你得到那些好的企业，并挑选和分析这些地方时，你会发现美国股票，正如你可以想象的那样，花在思考美国股票上的时间。你会发现，总的来说，在美国，什么才是真正伟大的企业，它的市盈率至少是 25 倍，也许是 30 倍，或 35 倍，或其他。当然，这使它变得更加困难，因为如果出现问题，您可能会损失很多投资。而且，当然，这就是投资如此困难的原因，因为好的企业，好的企业不会保持便宜。你必须以某种方式识别一个好的企业，然后它才能被认为是一个好的企业。这很难做到。有些人擅长它，但并不多。我不认为我会想要 95% 的人是美国的专业资产经理，我不会想要为我工作那么辛苦。要么你需要在顶部纤维区。有一个合理的机会。这是非常困难的。现在不难了。只需购买一个指数并出售您的资产，这是您资产的最佳默认位置。顺便说一下，如果你说看看日报 Corporation，我们就把它放在 401 K 计划中。上班族有哪些投资选择？零？都是指数基金。如果你占美国人的百分比 美国人占 401 ks 的百分比 要使我们的计划指数基金需要高于零，我说得对吗？还是我错了？我当然是对的。这是合乎逻辑的事情。

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好吧，所以百分比值 2 和 20。

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有时有时值得做很多，我会说。这远远低于 5%。没有人值两岁和二十岁。这真的是越来越少了，纯粹是在每个利基都被占据的现代条件下。真的是你，如果像红杉那样做早期风投，有多少人有红杉这样的记录？我认为在 100 个沙漠广场中没有一个有这样的记录。

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来自宾夕法尼亚州费城的 Chris Reed 写道，你之前说过

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甚至红杉也会偶尔犯错误。你知道，每个人都这样。

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但总的来说，你认为值得吗？好的，所以 Chris Reid 从费城写信说，你之前说过，你应该至少摧毁一个你每年都有的好主意，你在 2022 年摧毁了什么好主意，以及 2023 年到目前为止的任何东西？

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好吧，我毁掉它的想法是，这不是个好主意是个坏主意。当互联网出现时，我被在线零售业的领先者多收了钱。我没有意识到它还在零售，你知道，它可能是在线零售。但它也在零售，我只是，我有点失焦了。这让我高估了阿里巴巴未来的回报。和，所以我从来没有得到两次，消除错误。

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我想我刚刚失去了查理的

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对我现在犯的错误嗤之以鼻，因为我认为这对我自己有好处。

贝琪 

我能听到我的声音，但我听不到你的声音。你在最后一个问题中退出了。你能帮我一个忙吗，如果你能听到我的声音，请举手，你能听到我的声音，我没有听到他的声音。所以如果你们可以打进来，我会直接接通电话。现在我听到的是节目，而不是这个节目。我在你的节目中听到你的音乐正在播放。查理，我要问你另一个问题，这样其他人就不必听了，对我来说，我们要试着在控制室修好这个。但是这个问题来自，让我们看看，让我们来看看这个。克里斯·瓦拉纳西 (Chris Varanasi) 提出了关于他的问题，他说，嗨，查理，在上一次每日期刊对话中，一个值得注意的主题围绕着不同系统、框架和选择之间的积极和消极权衡。您能否谈谈您对医疗保健行业的看法，特别是美国等资本主义制度与英国加拿大等单一付款人制度之间的权衡？我问这个单一付款人医疗保健问题，因为对于那些不知道的人，您在洛杉矶的一家医院担任主席很长时间。所以你确实对这种情况有一些了解，并且在他们解决这个问题时可以随意交谈很长时间。嗯，是的。所以 并在他们解决此问题时随意交谈很长时间。嗯，是的。所以 并在他们解决此问题时随意交谈很长时间。嗯，是的。所以

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当有人问沃伦，当他们与摩根大通和亚马逊等公司进行实验时发生了什么，他们要改变，改善美国医学及其成本的问题？而且，当他们认为完全失败而放弃时，沃伦只是说了一个绦虫。如果美国系统成本太高，就会发生这种情况。你能听到我吗？

贝琪 

我当然看到你的嘴唇已经停止移动了。所以我要问另一个问题。是的，我现在听到我耳朵上有电线，如果有人注意的话，控制室。但是这个问题进来了。来自布拉德赫克，布拉德赫克在明尼苏达州的南圣保罗，他说，查理，我非常喜欢你有纪律的生活方式。你每天都在同一时间起床并在同一时间上床睡觉吗？最后，您每天关注的第一件事是什么？

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好吧，我的时间有点变化，但我很规律。而且我晚年睡得很好，所以在这方面我很幸运。

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看，你的嘴唇停止移动了。所以我要 明白了 我接到你了。哦，终于。我听到你了。好吧，查理，让我再问你这个问题好吗？是的，我有

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得到了你的技术。是的，不，我

贝琪 

认为我们有时会奏效。Jim Well 写道，如果你能在 2024 年任命任何人担任总统，你会选择谁？

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好吧，我想我会避开那个。我不想卷入总统政治。

贝琪 

好的，我听到了。我能理解。Charles 来信说，首先，我要感谢你 Charlie 赠送了一些 DJ co 股份来建立那个新的那个新的日报管理层股权激励计划。他早些时候谈到了这一点，他还说，他对传闻中的新版可怜的查理宝典感到兴奋。首先，这是真的吗，但他问你真正的问题，他说，你说你钦佩本杰明富兰克林，你能否详细说明这个主题并强调你钦佩本富兰克林的品质？

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嗯，本·富兰克林，是个天才。那是一个小国家，但他的记忆始于赤贫。他的父亲用发臭的动物尸体制作肥皂，这是一个非常低的起点。他几乎完全自学了两三年的小学，在那之后，他必须学习成长，所以会从那种起始位置上升到一个微小的饮食。他是他的国家最好的发明家，这个国家最好的科学家，这个国家最好的作家，这个国家最好的外交官。你知道，一件又一件的事，他是最好的，不是整个美国。他是一个非常不寻常的人，他以一种非常简洁的说话方式获得了极高的 Whew，这使他对自己的公民非常有用，而且他一直在发明所有这些东西。天啊，想象一下发明富兰克林炉子和双焦点眼镜以及我们一直使用的所有这些东西。当我看着你时，我戴着双焦点眼镜。这些是 Ben Franklin 眼镜，但他们有一种只是经历生活的男人。它变得有点完美。他发明了该死的双光眼镜。这只是他的众多发明之一。所以他是一个非常非常了不起的人。当然，我很钦佩这样的人。像本富兰克林这样的人并不多见。认为图书馆系统是他最好的作家，他是他国家最好的作家，也是最好的科学家，也是有史以来最好和更好的记录。是的是的。所有这些其他的东西。是的。这些是 Ben Franklin 眼镜，但他们有一种只是经历生活的男人。它变得有点完美。他发明了该死的双光眼镜。这只是他的众多发明之一。所以他是一个非常非常了不起的人。当然，我很钦佩这样的人。像本富兰克林这样的人并不多见。认为图书馆系统是他最好的作家，他是他国家最好的作家，也是最好的科学家，也是有史以来最好和更好的记录。是的是的。所有这些其他的东西。是的。这些是 Ben Franklin 眼镜，但他们有一种只是经历生活的人。它变得有点完美。他发明了该死的双光眼镜。这只是他的众多发明之一。所以他是一个非常非常了不起的人。当然，我很钦佩这样的人。像本富兰克林这样的人并不多见。认为图书馆系统是他最好的作家，他是他国家最好的作家，也是最好的科学家，也是有史以来最好和更好的记录。是的是的。所有这些其他的东西。是的。像本富兰克林这样的人并不多见。认为图书馆系统是他最好的作家，他是他国家最好的作家，也是最好的科学家，也是有史以来最好和更好的记录。是的是的。所有这些其他的东西。是的。像本富兰克林这样的人并不多见。认为图书馆系统是他最好的作家，他是他国家最好的作家，也是最好的科学家，也是有史以来最好和更好的记录。是的是的。所有这些其他的东西。是的。

贝琪 

那么有没有新的版本，不幸的是，

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我们演奏了四种不同的乐器。他的发明之一是他发明了治疗歌手的玻璃制品。我的天啊。他们仍然偶尔玩。是的，我们想要不同的休息时间。但他实际上演奏了四种不同的乐器。

贝琪 

是的，他是一名外交官，帮助制定国家规则，并通过他为费城和波士顿建立的信任向我们传授复利，这种信任在数百年后仍未得到回报？

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不，他是一个非常了不起的人，因为这个国家很高兴我们有幸拥有他。

贝琪 

是真的吗？查理宝典有新作吗？

查理芒格 

好吧，他们正在创建一个在线版本。好的。你讲过一些中国版Sold Way的方式不止一个美国，而且那里的人更多。这不是其他原因的唯一原因。好吧，一个礼仪人看起来像孔子。还有他们的系统。没有什么比一个有仪式感的人更好的了。是的。

贝琪 

查理说朴。正确的。所以问题是，这是关于延迟满足的极端问题，对于你这个年龄和财富的人来说，实行延迟满足有多合理？如果在你这个年纪还不理性？对普通成年人来说，延迟满足感如何才是合理的？那么，在没有延迟满足的情况下生活的理性点是什么？

查理芒格 

我还在做。现在我年纪大了，我买了这些公寓，这让我有事可做。我们正在这样做，我们以其他人运行它们的方式运行它们。其他人都在努力表现出高收入，这样我们就可以提高分配额。我们正在努力寻找明智地花钱让他们变得更好的方法。当然，我们的公寓比其他人做的更好，因为经营他们的人对我来说不太好，一两个年轻人，他们和我一起做。但这都是延迟满足。我们正在寻找机会推荐其他人正在寻找享受它的方式，这是一种不同的生活方式。你是这样开始的吗？或者你从我的生活中得到比他们更多的乐趣？

贝琪 

你是否开始不得不在延迟满足中工作？或者你就是这样出生的？

查理芒格 

不，我很早就学会了这一招。你知道，我已经用两个棉花糖和小孩做了那个实验。是的。等等，是的。他们已经做到了。看看他们现在的生活如何。而迟到的小草，即将到来的小孩子，棉花糖期间，也都是人生成功的人。可以这么说，这么多东西是天生的，这有点可悲。但你可以在某种程度上学习

贝琪 

所以回家并从我的孩子身上测试一下。

查理芒格 

我很幸运。我只是很自然地在生命的早期接受了延迟的满足。当然，从那时起它就对我有所帮助。

贝琪 

马特·麦卡利斯特 (Matt McAllister) 写道，首先，感谢您分享您的智慧。我们这些有幸聆听的人受益匪浅。我们已经知道沃伦巴菲特，我们已经知道沃伦巴菲特是一台学习机器，因为你的坦率描述。除了这种品质，您认为沃伦还有哪些其他品质帮助他成为世界上最伟大的投资者和复合者之一？

查理芒格 

好吧，沃伦不仅是一个很好的思想家，而且是一个很好的学习者，这很重要。但是沃伦有一个大的、强的、受信的基因，他关心股东们会发生什么。沃伦和我很幸运，那是早期的股东或信任我们的人，我们还很年轻，没有名气等等。自然而然地，我们对这些人怀有异常的忠诚。当然，很自然地，他们现在都死了。但我们仍然忠于他们。沃伦和我仍然非常关心伯克希尔股东的遭遇。我认为这对我们有帮助，如果你善于忠诚，它会有所帮助。

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来吧，贝基。

贝琪 

好吧，Bala syrup pen 和 Baucom 写道，许多大公司，包括拥有 Facebook 的 meta，以及各种保险公司都选择为董事或商业风险的责任进行自我保险。如果它走极端，它会注意到，因为它无疑会随着时间的推移而改变。这可能会导致潜在的系统性问题。请问您对此有何看法？他说他成为伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股东已有 16 年。感谢您的领导，并慷慨地与年轻一代分享您的想法。

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在我自己的生活中，我是一个大的自我保险公司。因此，作为沃伦，为我的房子购买火灾保险对我来说是荒谬的，因为我可以很容易地卖掉它来重建一座被烧毁的房子。那么，我为什么要费心去处理索赔流程和各种事情。因此，如果保险是您应该为您无力承担的事情投保。但是，如果你能承受你所知道的颠簸，那么一些平常的开支并不会真正伤害到你那么多。你为什么要和一些保险公司混在一起？如果你的房子被烧毁了？我只会写一张支票并重建它。而且，所有聪明人都按照我的方式去做。我不会说全部，但也许我应该说所有聪明人都应该按照我的方式去做。生活中应该有更多的自我保险。支付方式有很多种，就像你为其他骗子买保险一样。生活中有很多欺诈行为。而且你有能力自己承担风险，而不是在索赔和这个那个，佣金和时间，当然本身，更简单的保险等等上胡闹。想一想我一生中保存的东西。我从不。好吧，我从不携带 never，我想有一次。但有一个例外，我从来没有在我的车上携带碰撞保险。一旦我变得富有，我就不再为房屋购买火灾保险。我刚打开确定。我从不在我的车上购买碰撞保险。一旦我变得富有，我就不再为房屋购买火灾保险。我刚打开确定。我从不在我的车上购买碰撞保险。一旦我变得富有，我就不再为房屋购买火灾保险。我刚打开确定。

贝琪 

对于保险来说，这是正确的做法，这有点令人惊讶。嗯，对于一个拥有众多保险公司的伯克希尔副董事长来说，这有点令人惊讶。

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好吧，但我不是。我宁愿按原样告诉它。在它以一种对伯克希尔有帮助的方式出现之前，我不会以不同于我认为的方式来讲述它，这只是因为它对伯克希尔更好。尽管这对伯克希尔不利，但我想告诉你，如果你能负担得起自我保险，自我保险

贝琪 

甚至在医疗之类的事情上，或者我只是觉得你可能会认为你

查理芒格 

要知道，保险公司永远不会支付医院医生的费用，这只是您支付费用的一小部分。所以这是一种不同的微积分。医学上的一切都是美国医疗和医疗保险的费用，这是一种耻辱。如果你去新加坡，你会发现他们做的比我们做的好，因为它的成本是我们支付的 20%。再一次，我的音频，顺便说一句，我不知道如何从我们所在的地方到达新加坡所在的地方。因为所有的人都在像凶猛的老虎一样坚持战斗，获得所有额外的钱。他们控制着董事会、城市、州和我们的瑜伽。所以我不知道我不知道如何解决美国医疗保健的成本问题。他们完全在掌控之中。而且我还没有准备好用亚马逊解决所有这些问题。他失败了，因为每个人都失败了。

贝琪 

Matt McAllister 写道，我意识到最后几个问题，我没有意识到这是一个重复的句子。但我喜欢这些问题。他说，关于 Greg Abel，我们需要了解哪些最重要的事情？你经历过他也是学习机器的例子吗？如果是这样，你能分享一个吗？

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是的，好吧，格雷格在成为商业领袖方面非常出色，无论是作为思想家还是实干家。而且他还非常擅长通过他人顺利完成任务。所以他是一个非常了不起的人。伯克希尔非常幸运拥有他。而且，他也总是拥有一台巨大的学习机器，你可以说他和沃伦一样擅长学习各种东西。关于格雷格的一件有趣的事情是，他在某些事情上比沃伦更擅长，而且更多人知道这一点，而且他只是不断地向格雷格倾诉，格雷格可以做得更好的一切。而且很多。而且，伯克希尔的系统现在正在运行。好吧，无论如何，我们很幸运有一个 92 岁的老人和沃伦一样健康。我们很幸运能拥有像格雷格这样的首席执行官，格雷格非常了不起。格雷格受到公用事业监管机构监管的保险机构的信任，因此他正试图像监管机构一样运营所有这些公用事业公司。现在，很多人都这么想。但这是一种非常聪明的思考方式。

贝琪  

哪怕只是出于诚意的表现。

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是啊，为什么不在这里玩呢？为什么不按照您希望的方式进行呢？如果您是交易的另一方？如果你对自己做了你喜欢的事，你怎么会失败？这是黄金法则。当然，它有效。

贝琪 

好吧，所以我的名字吉姆写了进来，我问了这个问题，因为我在投资方面有很多类似的问题。但这个问题可能是很多人在 65 岁及以后开始怀疑的问题，他只是说，你会建议我在 67 岁时参加社会保障吗？还是等我70岁？我什么时候能每月收到更多？

查理芒格 

好吧，我可以为你做出选择。这取决于。你知道，你很快就会死去，我去吧，还有更多的钱可以花。你认为你可能会活很长时间，你会有不同的微积分。我会说，大多数、大多数健康的人等等，他们的预期寿命都相当长。一般来说，他们推迟领取社会保障金并在以后领取更多钱是明智的。

贝琪 

我想这也是乐观的想法。如果您认为自己的寿命很长，那就是解决问题的方法。

查理芒格 

那么，贝基，你是做什么的？

贝琪 

好吧，我还不到 65 岁，所以我还没有考虑过。我在等待。我猜我会

查理芒格 

我不认为你需要社会保障。贝基，我不担心你。

贝琪 

我想我会工作更长的时间。我天生保守。因此，Will Young 就在您敦促美国政府像中国所做的那样禁止加密货币时，我有一个关于繁荣和萧条周期以及历史上不同国家的更普遍的问题。一个好的政府应该为经济增长做什么和不做什么？

查理芒格 

好吧，如果你想增加人均 GDP，你必须做什么，这是每个人都应该想要的，你必须拥有大部分财产和私有财产，所以大多数对我们的财产做出决定的人是关心使整个系统如此高效的财产，以至于人均 GDP 总系统，我们有方便的交易所，数字货币系统，等等。因此，文明致富的主要方式就是进行所有这些交易，并将所有财产掌握在私人手中。如果你喜欢小提琴课，而我需要你的钱，那么当我们进行交易时，我们双方都会获益。所以当然，当你有一群人花自己的钱并拥有自己的企业等等时，GDP 就会变得疯狂。在我所知道的世界历史上，没有人从猎人聚会发展到现代文明，除非通过一个大部分财产为私人所有的系统。大量的交流自由。而且，顺便说一句，我只是说了一些非常明显的话，但实际上并不是那样说的。在大多数教育中，即使你可以在大学里学习经济学课程，也不知道我刚才说的是什么。他们不会以完全相同的方式教授它。反正，他们不会以完全相同的方式教授它。反正，他们不会以完全相同的方式教授它。反正，

贝琪 

那将是你最好的。

查理芒格 

好的。是啊是啊。

贝琪 

这个来自马特。他说，在你与伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的整个经历中，根据你以前的一些理性想法和想法，最让你惊讶的事情有哪些？另外，您是如何利用其中的一些惊喜来成为更好的学习机器的？

查理芒格 

我想说的是最让我吃惊的事情是如何，有多少人死了商业世界非常像物理世界，所有动物都在改进所有物种的过程中死亡，所以他们可以活下去在利基等。所有的动物都死去，最终所有的物种都死去。这就是系统。当我年轻的时候，我没有意识到同样的系统适用于资本主义、美元企业所发生的事情，他们正在走向死亡的道路上作为答案。所以其他东西可以代替它们，并导致一些不寻常的死亡。想象一下柯达死了。它是世界上最伟大的商标之一，没有人不使用胶片，他们主宰着胶片，他们比地球上任何人都更了解胶片的化学成分。当然，整个该死的生意都归零了。看看 Xerox，一旦你拥有了这个世界，它只是一个苍白的缩影，与它曾经的样子相比什么都不是。所以几乎所有的东西都会消亡，如果你的时间尺度不够大，当我足够年轻的时候，那同样明显，然后我有一段时间没看到它，你知道，那些看着她的东西，只存在了一段时间很长一段时间，我以为我老了也想变成那样。但是很多虽然消失了，但实际上一切都在商业中消亡了。没有一种卓越是永恒的。想一想那些说长话短说的所有伟大部门，他们是他们小社区中最重要的事情。他们在提供信贷、便利和所有季节方面遥遥领先于所有人，你知道，方便来回使用电梯等，多层，看起来它们是永恒的。他们基本上都快死了，或者死了。因此，一旦我更好地理解了这一点，我认为这让我成为了一个更好的投资投资者。

贝琪 

我的意思是，对于经理来说也是如此。我和沃尔玛的 Doug McMillon 谈过，他随身携带在钱包里，就像在他身上一样，他随身携带着几十年来顶级零售商的名单。从来没有人说，你知道，

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走了。是的，是的，当然。零售商生活在恐惧之中。因为你可以死。所以我们必须成为一种更好的方式来做到这一点。而你只是死了。喜欢那些百货公司？做过。

贝琪 

你早期投资的那些，甚至是巴尔的摩

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好吧，不，他们中的大多数人认为一些温暖的商店在连锁店后连锁店和大数据中消失了，他们没有被削弱，他们已经死了。他们死了。而且，IBM 在绝对主导地位方面立即拥有巨大的地位。现在它只是 RANS 之一。这仍然是一个令人钦佩的地方。我是

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确保他们有很多人才，即使你有才华和勤奋，IBM 也不会帮你死。

贝琪 

Arthur Kahn 写道，他是住在多伦多的日报股东。他说芒格先生，好吧，我们中的许多人都钦佩您并仰望您。我想问一下，您最欣赏和仰望的人有哪些？是什么让他们如此特别？

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好吧，一些最优秀的人，我认为 Costco 的 Jim Senegal 与 Gary 得到的高管差不多。顺便说一下，他没有上沃顿商学院，也没有上哈佛商学院。他 18 岁开始在一家商店工作。他晋升为 Costco 的首席执行官。事实上，他是一个创始人，在一个叫萨尔普莱斯的人手下。我认为，他一生所取得的成就是世界历史上整个商业史上最了不起的事情之一。吉姆塞内加尔，在他的生命中，他仍然非常活跃。但他是，但你知道，更进一步，这就是生活，基本上。而且他真的太擅长了，几乎没有什么他不明白的，无论是大事还是小事。而且没有那么多吉姆依偎。和其他人一样的工作。格雷格在某种程度上鞠躬，它和 Greg 的声音一样好，因为你们会在他处理人等问题的方式方面拥有天才。我无法告诉你我是多么钦佩那些有足够理智来运行这些公用事业的人。所以他是监管者。他并不想转嫁成本，因为他做不到。他正在努力，他正在努力按照他希望的方式去做。如果他是监管者而不是执行者。当然，这是运行实用程序的正确方法。但有多少人真正以这种方式经营得很好？所以那里有一些令人钦佩的商人，我很幸运，他们中的很多人都参与了我的生活。经营 TTI 的人是个天才。TTI 是新德里的伯克希尔子公司，一般认为如果我们仍然垄断发布我们的案例或其他东西，你会很幸运，

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它是由一个人经营的，他被解雇并创建了公司。从他发明了整个总国防承包商的地方被解雇了，我忘了是哪一个。是的，我记不太清了。但他是一个了不起的人。而且，他为我们经营业务，他不会让我们提高他的工资。有多少人与他们的经理有问题？他们不会让他们不允许你提高他们的工资。这是非常罕见的。是的。

贝琪 

查理，我昨天和你的一个朋友谈过，他问你的问题是什么品质对你的生活帮助最大？

查理芒格 

嗯，这是简单的理性。如果你只是不疯狂 如果你比 95% 的人有很大的优势，因为你们中的大多数人都会有各种疯狂的补丁，如果你只是一直不疯狂，那么你在生活中就有很大的优势. 如果您有耐心并且除了不疯狂之外还有不同的满足感，那实际上是必不可少的。如果你特别擅长满足，你就是你所拥有的其他人，你只是自动地极大地改善了你的资源和你的生活机会，而且如此简单。为什么没有更多的人这样做呢？这是一个有趣的问题。我不认为你可以教育你的孩子自动去做。我告诉你，如果你有 10 个孩子，你会有一些比其他人做得更好。

贝琪 

随着成功、年龄、财富的增加，保持理性变得更加困难。

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我认为，它总是很难，但你会变得更好。如果您在年轻时就擅长，请继续练习。但这绝非易事。如果你不得不质疑有人问，你会买哪一只袜子？如果你只能依靠那只袜子来支付你唯一的生活费用？你根本不被允许有任何收入。你只需要投资一百万美元并靠那只股票生活？在美国有多少人会对这个问题给出明智的答案？我不认为它超过 100。我认为它甚至应该开始。

贝琪 

我想我最喜欢听你说过的话，我经常对很多人重复这句话，那就是无论你的年龄和财富都能让你变得更强大，所以我不久前就想到了这一点。是什么让你这么做的？你当然有是的。你有什么？

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我认为这是真的，我们都倾向于我们所有人，我们都倾向于在各个方面得到更多。和

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当我今天早上醒来穿上裤子时，我想到了这一点。我以为你知道我买那条裤子真的很省钱。为什么我要省钱而且我的裤子购买习惯如此之好。我停不下来。

贝琪 

我想回到一个关于日报的问题，把日报和你的一些财产总结起来。这个问题来自 Moshe sable，他在 2018 年左右的一次股东大会上说，你谈到了比亚迪，并说期刊技术不完全是比亚迪，但补充说，顺便说一下，它可能会像现在的比亚迪一样几年后你还觉得杰拉德的技术能和比亚迪一样吗

查理芒格 

但我向你保证，不会那么快，也不会那么棒。我还可以坦率地保证，比亚迪是世界历史上最引人注目的风险投资驱动之一。他是一个农民的第八个儿子。我有一个哥哥，现在这个年幼的孩子有点像一个天才的弟弟。当他成为一名工程学教授，然后成为一名企业家时，哥哥牺牲了自己让这个农民儿子进入一所好的工程学校。有多少次你听到这样的故事，想象一下在中国收购一家破产的小汽车公司并将其转变为今年电动汽车销量最高的公司，当时电动汽车很热。这是一个了不起的故事。但同样，一个非常不寻常的人是一种洗发水。顺便说一下，在他的情况下，如果一款洗发水没有如此不同寻常，它就不会发生。他得到 MGE 的方式不同寻常，真是个该死的天才。他一生中每天 17 个小时都在思考正确的事情。他是个工作狂，能做到常人做不到的事情。

贝琪 

那是你购买过的最喜欢的股票，比亚迪或好市多。

查理芒格 

好吧，我要说的是，我从来没有在伯克希尔帮过任何忙。那和比亚迪一样好。而且我只做过一次。是 270,000 美元的投资，现在价值大约 10 亿美元，也可能是 9 美元。这是一个相当不错的回报率。

贝琪 

是的，我很好。

查理芒格 

是的，我们并不总是这样做。我们一生只做一次。现在我们还必须添加一些其他的成功，但是，几乎没有这样的。我们做了一项更好的投资。你知道那是什么，我们付钱给一位高管招聘人员来为我们招募一名员工，他想出了它的链条。与我们支付给高管招聘人员的金额相比，他给我们带来的回报是我们在伯克希尔最好的投资，是一家大型高管招聘公司让我们进入链条。但同样，它只发生过一次。

贝琪 

现在，这对查理来说是一笔不小的投资，我只想感谢你今天所有的时间。

查理芒格 

好吧，我想我们都说完了，如此慷慨是因为我们的会议结束了，我们会把它转回这里与你们再做一次。我们在这方面已经有好几年了。所以我最好的你们。

贝基 谢谢。谢谢。谢谢你，史蒂文。谢谢你，查理。

英文原文

Hey there! I am currently organizing my notes from this 2.5 hours long meeting into a 5-minutes read.

If you want receive a copy of my notes, make sure you are on my free newsletter—I breakdown businesses and share lessons from superinvestors.

Transcript

Becky 

Stephen, thank you very much, and welcome, everyone. We got a great number of questions that came in and I’ve tried to sort through as many as I could. We’ll go through as many of these questions as we can during the session. But first of all, Charlie, thank you for taking the time today. The first question that we have comes from Ryan Fusaro. And his question is related to journal technologies. He says, Can you give an update on the company’s new CEO Stephen Michael Jones, he was appointed as interim serious CEO nearly one year ago, how’s he performing? And when will the decision be made on selecting a permanent CEO?

Charlie Munger 

Well, yeah, answers is Steve chose his own titles coming in, and will change whenever he wants to change.

Becky 

That sounds fair enough. Yeah.

Steven Michael Jones 

You know, I will say that when we were discussions a year ago, I told Charlie that I was committed to ensure the success of the business, but that I wasn’t sure I would be the right long term CEO. And I had incomplete information at the time. And I thought it was important that I have the optionality to hire someone better suited or promote from within if we just ended that be a better path. And, you know, I found it helped grow a geography software company, with no background in publishing or the legal and court sector. And what I can see now is that the parallels between the software company I built and general technologies are are remarkable, and I believe I can add value. I like the business and potential for it. So I expect more clarity on our long term approach sometime later this year. Okay,

Becky 

thank you. The second question comes in and it’s in regards to capital allocation. This is from Paul in Lynwood, Michigan, Paul Pham. In the past year, you’ve just in the past, you’ve described daily journals unique position of being a newspaper, which generated enough excess cash in the past to invest in an equity portfolio. Now its fastest growing subsidiary journal technology is accounts for a large part of the company’s earnings. Is the technology business, a natural area to allocate excess capital for the best return on equity for the company has gone off. Oh, can you hear me darling? I’ll keep talking here. 12345. I’ll test this out. Maybe you guys can play me I don’t if there’s a voice of God, you could play to the floor there. But I’ll keep talking in the hopes that Charlie can pick up on this. And Charlie, just let me know, when you do hear this. This is a question again. Sounds like they’re not hearing folks. I don’t know the control room. If you guys have any ideas about what’s happening. Again, this is the annual meeting for the daily journal shareholders meeting. We have a lot of questions that have come in for Charlie Munger. And we’re gonna get into those questions as soon as we can get the audio fixed for this.

Steven Michael Jones 

Sounds like Becky, we can hear you over someone’s brought a tablet over over the tablet for the time being.

Becky 

Okay, Steven. Thank you, Charlie. I’ll just wrap up. I don’t know where you just got cut off. But this is from Paul Pham. He was asking about your little capital, capital allocation. And he’s just wondering if the technology business is a natural area to allocate excess capital for the best return on equity for the company? How should we think about or how does the current investment manager think about investing in the equity portfolio in relation to reinvesting in growing areas of the business where share buybacks or share buybacks?

Charlie Munger 

Well, it’s all very simple. We made a lot of extra money out of the publishing business in its heyday. And that was about $30 million. And that was all made in the foreclosure boom. And of course, in the old days, we had information in monopoly on publishing the appellate Court’s decisions baleia newsprint, and the internet came along, it destroyed our, our position, our circulation went way down, and so forth. So we’ve had a drastic change in good fortune and our publishing business. And Steve actually ran a small software company and can Canada for years and years and years, which is quite similar to what Gen technologies does. And so that’s how we got together. The future. This business is not in the publishing side. It’s on the It’s on the general technology side. And the good news is that we’re in a huge market because all the courts of the world are in the stone age still, in terms of automating with modern technology. And so it’s a big market. And the bad news is, it’s a long, slow slog where you deal with a lot of bureaucracies, in response to RFPs requests for proposals, and it’s just a very slow, difficult business. So we got to slow down the old business of chewing our way into a huge market, that’s not going away with one big competitor in it. And that’s the future and like many Publishing Company, which use newsprint it’s a miracle when you arrive, if you look at the small and mid cap edition of the value laden books, you’ll find there two entries left one is going out, which used to own the monopoly newspaper, I don’t know 5060 100 different cities. And the executives are right around in giant aeroplanes, and be treated like Lords of England when they went to publishers convention in every newspaper publisher that, you know, it was it was a hugely powerful in his own community. And so they’re like the Lords of England, all these publishers. And now mighty caneta is just a pale shadow of itself. Newspapers shrunk down to a tiny little view and very limited assets, and so forth. So there’s been an unbelievable change in the technology and competitive outcomes in publishing ordinary newspapers, on newsprint. And by and large, the safe rule is they’re all dying, they’re just in different states of near death. And so if this place has a future, it’s in the general technology side, and that’s a long, slow grind. And the only reason we have a lot of marketable securities is we have the extra money, and we preferred the marketable securities to cash in an inflationary world. And so, of course, there’s been a minor miracle that we’ve got as much as we have in marketable securities, because our investments have done better than average. As a follow on, the good news is we’ve survived so far, and we’ve got some surplus wealth. And the bad news. It’s a long slow slog ahead in the main future isn’t journal technologies.

Becky 

As a follow up to that this is a related question. It comes from Gareth more in Northern Ireland. And maybe you can both comment on this. He says that, given the extended amount of time, extended amount of time that it will take to digitise the court systems because of complexity, risks and bureaucracy and a fast moving world of software innovation. Shareholders be assured that journal technology solution remains cutting edge long enough to reward shareholders, and how you get about the risk of arriving in 2030 with a great software business, but which only lasts a few years until it gets disrupted by some new technology. Sure,

Steven Michael Jones 

I mean, do you take that? Well, yeah. You know, of course, there are no assurances. And at the same time, you know, I do have some background dealing with this challenge, because I did it for 19 years with my former company. And we are consistent and appealing profits. And I expect the model still working well, for the folks who acquired us. You know, I think a key responsibility is to get technology change, working for us and our customers rather than against us. And it takes advanced planning and and in investment engineer software, with change over time in mind. And so it’s inherently upgradeable, and I think its model works works great if you can establish a sufficient licensee base to fund that proactive r&d To have all products in a way that manages technology change. So that and it also need to be highly repeatable. And I think all this requires a mindset that enterprise software development is an ongoing process and not a one time event, and so are our customer deployments.

Becky 

Okay, let me move on to another question that comes from gauge Sanchez. Gauge writes in with a question for you, Charlie, two years ago during the 2021. Yeah, let’s try that. Okay, we can hear the speaker there. Okay. So gauge Sanchez writes in and says two years ago, during the 2021 annual meeting, you said daily journals $350, stock was selling way above the price that you would pay for the new shares. As I write this daily journals, trades for $305 A share a $420 million market cap with a total equity portfolio value of over $310 million dollars that Charles has covered several times over about the banks, dividends and journal technologies or financial statement value and huge markets, do you still hold the same belief?

Charlie Munger 

Well, you accurately stated our circumstances. We do have a lot of surplus wealth, but we need it to attack this big market. These courts? What Why would they gamble on a little company with no note well worth the courts that are letting the RFP contracts? So what we’re using our network to help the business.

Becky 

But does that get to the question of whether you’d buy the stock at $305 ?

Charlie Munger 

Well, I don’t buy and I don’t sell. So that’s what the Mungers have been doing. You know. It’s not a crazy valuation considering what everything else is selling for these days. So I have no feeling that it’s almost foolishly high on some crazy mistake. Some people thought, well, it’s a small Berkshire, it’ll double like rabbits, you know. And of course, it’s not a small Berkshire. I’m 99 years old guys.

Becky 

That question mentioned the bank dividends that you all have DJCO another. Another person wrote in Norman Bergman, who asks, Charlie Berkshire has unloaded the bank stocks if it’s not good enough for Berkshire shareholders, why is it good for us?

Charlie Munger 

Well, I might have different ideas. If you own securities, marketable securities within a corporation, located in California, you pay huge state and federal taxes and you sell things in a big game. And that affects our willingness to sell some of those bank stocks I bought on the bottom tech in the foreclosure crisis. It literally was the bottom pick. And they’re practically all game. So I immediately give the government 40 numbers out of everything we sell out of that out of those bank stocks. So and of course, they’re producing tax, the dividends are almost tax rate. So based on what we’d get if we sold them and the return, we’re getting out of the dividends, it’s not so bad for us. The answer is it’s, we’re not in a normal position. All factors considered it, we’re willing to hold them for a while. And there is a big disadvantage. And in aggregate, huge layer of federal corporate taxes, and state taxes between us. And any money we make at a state like California, which is a very business friendly state, it might be about rushing to come out and incorporate in California. There are all kinds of states that have no income taxes, and deliberately use that lure to bring in corporations, California is trying to force its wealthy people and its wealthy corporations out of the state. And I must say it’s working fine. They’re leaving just one after another. And that’s just the way it is. But you know, if we succeed in the software business, it will all come go to the end. And if we fail, we have a crush under us in our real estate in our securities, which means we won’t lose so much from the present market price. So it’s not a crazy thing to to own it now at the market valuation but it’s not cheap, either.

Becky 

Alright, this next question comes from Thomas Lang, who says he’s a longtime Berkshire shareholder, but a pretty recent daily journal shareholder. He says, Well, I know the daily journal is not a mini Berkshire, I’d suspected that there would be some shared principles in the area of governance. Specifically regarding the Board of Directors. I’m surprised to see such a small ownership, three of the five on zero shares a fourth owns 100 shares, Thomas says pretty unimpressive. doesn’t suggest misalignment between the board members and shareholders. He says he’s not trying to be rude, but he thinks it’s a fair question.

Charlie Munger 

Well, what happened was we used to have Garen and Munger and we were the two biggest shareholders. And of course, we’ve been partners for years and years. And we took no fees, no, no directors, fees, no expenses, no nothing. And so it was a very user friendly Berkshire type place. Well, Garin died. And finally at age 90, so and, and so now we’re down to one less survivor, the old guard. And of course, we need a certain number of new directors and our new directors are pretty damn smart. And they’re all rich, by the way. So it’s still very Berkshire, like board. smarter, Gretchen. And thinking like a capitalist. We still we have that.

Steven Michael Jones 

I would add that, you know, while I don’t have equity yet, I’m certainly keen to participate in future growth of business. What What should the timing of that be with someone? It was me, I think that’s interesting question. Thomas. I roll it out. Yeah, right. Now, I don’t think that’s impacting my my driver decisions. I already feel enormous skin in the game that Mr. Munger and the board entrusted me to take the reins of the business is something I take very seriously. It’s really

Charlie Munger 

quite interesting to have a pile of securities him one interesting activity in a very high tech field, and with a lot of politics and travelling, and difficulty in it, but it’s a huge, huge market. And it isn’t like there a lot of other people that most of the big corporations, that would be our natural competitors are, are places where they they hate RFPs. In other words, one of the reasons the business is good for us is a lot of the big companies just hate what we’re doing. They want easier money today. So standard visa software, just repeat it over and over again. They’re spoiled. We’re willing to suck it out of the modem, all these little consulting contracts. And that makes us have really a few competitors in the field.

Becky 

Surely since you brought up Rick Aaron, oh, go ahead.

Charlie Munger 

No, go ahead. Well, since

Becky 

you brought up, Rick, Aaron, I’m gonna get to this question from Ronnie Pereira in Mumbai who says your friend Rick Aaron passed away about a year ago. He was your longtime friend and business partner for several decades. How was he as a person as an investor? And how do you remember his legacy?

Charlie Munger 

Well, he was just terrific as a personal investor. And I missed him terribly. Of course, we were together for years and years and years, and we were together. And that creates a bonding.

Charlie Munger 

When we met in 1961, we were both poor and struggling and young. We had a long ride together. And but all things end you know, that’s, that’s the nature of the human condition.

Becky 

I get to a question from Lee. Just the first name from this shareholder wrote in a question about chat GPT and artificial intelligence and the impact on daily journals, the daily journals business model and civilization at large says, I’m not sure if you’ve tried to converse with chat GPT given all the rage in the news lately, briefly, it’s artificial intelligence, known as a language model is trained on trained on a large data set of texts like books and articles. What are your thoughts on AI is impact on daily journals business and more broadly, our civilization at large?

Charlie Munger 

Well, I think artificial intelligence is very important, but it’s also a lot of crazy hype on the subject. Artificial Intelligence, it’s not going to cure cancer, it’s not going to do everything we want done. And, and there’s a lot of nonsense in it too. So I regard it as a mixed blessing all this artificial intelligence. Some people have used it in some things like insurance underwriting pretty well. But a lot of people try and use it in ordinary things like buy office buildings or something and I think that’s way more but I don’t think it’s gonna help anybody by offers really not very much anyway.

Steven Michael Jones 

through the lens of daily journal Corp. AI is something that we started experimenting with in the summer, in the summer for certain types of writing certain types of articles. And something we’re certainly tracking very closely. I think in terms of complex work, I think it’s a long way off. But for many types of activities, especially routine things, I think we’ll I think it’ll be fascinating to see how disruptive it is over a relatively short time horizon for many types of work and activities.

Charlie Munger 

We had our big disruption with technology kind of severely, and adversely affected our publishing business. And we have our opportunity in this new business. But it’s just a long, tough slog. There’s no short there’s no world road to success in what we’re doing.

Becky 

Someone named Peter Ferland wrote in from Oakville, Ontario, and he had a question that he asked, he asked Chat GPT to come up with a question to ask you, Charlene. Here’s what GPT came up with. Mr. Munger, you’ve spoken about the importance of avoiding mental biases in decision making, in your experience, what’s the most challenging bias to overcome? And how do you personally guard against it? So I definitely answer that question. And then what you think of the question that Chat GPT wrote for you?

Charlie Munger 

Well, what I by the name, one factor that dominates you in bad decisions, you would be what I call denial, if the truth is unpleasant enough. People kind of their mind plays tricks on them. And they get, it isn’t really happening. And of course, that causes enormous destruction of business where people go on throwing money into the way they used to do things like Oh, isn’t gonna work at all well, and the way the world is now having changed, and, and if you want to example of how denial was affecting things, take the world of Investment Management. How many managers are going to beat the indexes, all costs considered? I would say, maybe 5%, consistently beat the average. Everybody else is living in a state of extreme denial. They’re used to charging big fees and so forth. For stuff that isn’t doing their clients any good. It’s a deep moral depravity. If someone comes to you with $500,000, and you charge or one point a year for, you could put her in the indexes. But you need the the one point. So people just charge someone Oh, you know, a considerable fee for worthless advice. And the whole progression is for that kind of denial. It’s everywhere. So so I had to say it was I always quote the Maslow he’s a long time ago, and mostly that’s 2000, more than 2000 years ago. And he said, what people wish is what they believe. Think of how much of that goes on. And so it’s a of course, it’s hugely important. And you can just see it, I would say the agency costs and money management. There are just so many billions, it’s uncountable. And nobody can face it. Who wants to keep your kids in school, you won’t quit, you need the fees, you need the broker choices you need so that so you do what’s good for you and bad for them. Now, I don’t think Berkshire does that. And I don’t think Gary and I do that at Daily Journal here and I never took a dime of salary or directors fees or anything. If I have business, I talked on my phone or use my car, I don’t charge into the daily journal. That’s unheard of. It shouldn’t be unheard of. And it goes on in Berkshire. It goes out in the daily journal. But we have an assembly plant now in this journal technologies, and it has a million dollars for the day journal stock that did not come from the company issuing those shares. I gave those years to the company to use it compensating the employees. And I learned that trick, so to speak, from BYD, which is one of the securities we hold in our securities portfolio. And BYD at one time in its history, the founder chairman, he didn’t use the company’s stock to reward the executives. He used his own stock, and it was a big reward do well last year what happened, BYD last year made more than $2 billion after taxes in the auto business in China, who in the hell makes $2 billion was a brand new entered in the business for all practical purposes. It’s incredible what’s happened. And so there is some of this old fashioned capitalist virtue left in the daily journal and there’s some left in Berkshire Hathaway. And there’s nothing left at BYD. But most places everybody’s trying to take what they need, and just rationalising whether it’s deserved or not.

Becky 

You bring up BYD so I’ll jump to a question from Stephen Spencer, who writes in from New York, New York. He’s curious why Mr. Munger prefers an investment in BYD to Tesla.

Charlie Munger 

Well, that’s easy. Tesla last year, reduced prices in China twice. BYD increased its prices for direct competitors. Were so much ahead of BYD. I mean, BYD is so much ahead of Tesla in China, it’s like a. It’s just, it’s almost ridiculous. And if you look at BYD which most people never heard of, if you count all the manufacturing space they have in China to make cars, it would it would about to have a percentage of all over Manhattan Island. Nobody ever heard of them few years ago.

Becky 

All right. Let me jump to another question. This one comes from Michael asset sale, who says this is my regards to some movement at Berkshire some sales of Berkshire stake holdings. The sale of some BYD and Taiwan semi shares have anything to do with the relations between the United States and China or was it for purely economic reasons?

Charlie Munger 

Well, when he’s talking about 50 times earnings, that is a very high price. On the other hand, they’re likely to increase their auto sales by another 50% this year. So it’s, we sold part of ours by the way, years ago, not years, but about a year ago at a much higher price. And it’s only for now and we’re not a mini Berkshire, we’re not going to have a good correlation between us and what Berkshire does. And you can understand why somebody will sell Berkshire BYD stock at 50 times earnings at the current price will be why the stock level BYD is worth more than the entire Mercedes Corporation. Market capitalization, so it’s not a cheap stock on the other hand, it’s a very remarkable company. And by the way, I want to tell people, the great contribution I made to the success six as a BYD, I, we got into it through Li lu and and it was all company that knocked off the Japanese cell phones. And the chairman who’s got a genius salary by a bankrupt little crappy auto and go to the auto business from dead scratch when he’s making cell phones little tiny nothing company. And both Li lu and I talking about it, please don’t do this dumb thing. You get your head handed to you. The business little BYD is over. Last year, they made more than $2 billion in the auto business from that standing started to zero, it’s unheard of. But lately, we’ve noticed they’re all great because we tried to get them. We tried to talk about doing what works well, which shows that there’s some accident in life.

Becky 

Charlie, this question comes from Michael Gallagher. He says, according to company filings, it appeared that Alibaba shares were purchased with leverage. And when the stock price fell last year, he was seemingly forced to sell he being you. Can you ask Charlie to confirm that it was bought with leverage? And if so why would he do that? As it seems to go against his philosophy? I got several questions that were similar to that.

Charlie Munger 

Well, yes, it’s true. I operated with no leverage for long stretches of my old age and Warren is the same way. And, and recently, I use a little bit of leverage here in another place. Because the opportunities were so ridiculously good. I thought it was desirable to do that. So you’re right. It’s unusual for us. But we, we did find a few things. And by the way, if you go back early in my career, I use some leverage, I sometimes ask myself a mental question. I say, what is the appropriate percentage of your net worth? And you put it in the stock if you think it’s an absolute hit? Well, if you’re the kind of gal who’s right, if you think something is essential, the answer is 100%. Or maybe 150%. But nobody, nobody teaches people to think that way to finance but but if you ever do it, he’s great enough the logical answer is 100%. Or maybe 200%.

Becky 

Somebody else wrote in and I don’t have the email in front of me the moment that he wrote in quoting you where you said the three things that really people are ladies liquor and leverage so why would you use leverage is one of the three things that can destroy somebody?

Charlie Munger 

Well, I use a little out of my way up and so did Warren by the way, the Buffett partnership use leverage regularly every every year of its life would Warren would do was he would buy a bunch of stocks and then he borrowed and sold stocks need buy under these they used to call it a bit arbitrage, liquidations mergers and so forth. And that was not didn’t go down with the market that was like an independent banking business and Ben Graham’s name for that. That type of investment he called the Jewish treasury bills and it always amuses me that’s what he would call them but Warren use leverage to buy Jewish treasury bills went on the way up and it worked fine for him. I don’t think either it was everybody well, not only Berkshire has stock in Activision Blizzard. And you can argue that that’s whether they’ll go through or not, I don’t know. But but but that’s the Jewish treasury bill. arbitrage. Arbitrage play on Activision. Well, yeah, so we’ve had arbitrage but we sort of stopped doing it because it’s such a crowded place. But here’s here’s a little Berkshire doing it again and Activision Blizzard, and Munger using a little leverage of the Daily Journal Corporation. So is leveraged use that leverage to buy BYD? You could argue it’s the best thing I’ve ever done for the daily journal. So it’s leveraged the least evil of the three L’s I think most people should avoided but maybe not everybody play by those rules. I have a friend who says, the young man knows the rules of the old man knows the exceptions. Alright, another question. He’s lived right? You know.

Becky 

Another question comes in from Brandon McKee. He’s also asking about some situations with Alibaba, he said, How should investors view geopolitical events in regards to their investment in foreign countries? How do you like the situation of the recent Chinese spy balloon in regards to the Alibaba investment?

Charlie Munger 

Well, of course, it was a very interesting thing. Jack Ma was a dominant capitalist in Alibaba. And one day he got up and made a public speech where he basically said the Communist Party is horrible hockey. They don’t know the outcome of their elbow. They’re no damn good, and I’m smart. And of course, the Communist Party didn’t really like his speech. And pretty soon he just sort of disappeared from view for months on end. And now he’s out to BYD. It was pretty surreal, but it’s like poking a bear in the nose with a sharp stick. It’s not smart. And and Jack Ma got way out of line by popping off the way he did to the Chinese government. And of course, it hurt Alibaba. But I regard Alibaba as one of the worst mistakes I ever made in thinking about Alibaba, I got charmed with the idea of their position on the Chinese ever did. didn’t stop to realise it’s still a goddamn retailer. It’s gonna be a competitive business, the internet, it’s not gonna be a cakewalk for everybody.

Becky 

Just about China in general. I have a lot of questions that came in regarding that. I’ll ask this one from Wilco. Wilco shots and Dorf. It’s coming in from Walnut Creek, California who just said previously stated that despite certain shortcomings, China was generally moving in the right direction. However, with the recent actions taken by the Chinese government, such as capriciously punishing technology in educational companies declining to import effective COVID, vaccines, escalating threats towards Taiwan, do you still maintain that China is a viable investment option for foreign capital? Or is China experiencing a similar regression as Russia has seen under Putin’s leadership that culminates in the invasion of Taiwan?

Charlie Munger 

Well, that’s a very good question, of course. But I would argue that the chances of a conversation from China have gone down, not up because of what happened in the Ukraine. I think that the Chinese leader is a very smart, practical person. And it doesn’t rush into there you Ukrainians, it looks like a cakewalk. I don’t think Taiwan looks like such a cakewalk anymore. I think it’s off the table in general for a long, long time. And I think that helps the prospects of investors who invest in China. And the other thing that helps in terms of the China prospects are that you can buy the best, you can buy better, stronger companies, that cheaper valuation in China than you can’t the United States. So you’re getting the extra wet risk can be worth running, given the extra value you get. That’s why we’re in China, it’s like we prefer being in some foreign country. Of course, I’d rather wait in Los Angeles right next to my house, you know, it’d be more convenient. But I can’t find that many investments, you know, right next to my house.

Becky 

Just to follow up on that, Alex, right. So Alex Romanski, I’m sorry, the very small print, right, and how have political events in China over the last few months affected your thinking on the country, several people, including me, were taken aback by the forceful withdrawal of former President who Jintao at the October 22 annual Congress, President Xi seems to have consolidated power. And his actions have indicated that he thinks very differently about the role of business and Chinese society.

Charlie Munger 

Well, I have more optimism about the leader of the Chinese party than most people do. He has done a lot of things right too, and, you know, even a little bit of anti corruption drive, he’s done a lot of things. Right. So and I don’t know where this man lives. Where is there a place where the government is perfect in the world, seven zero. Democracies are that regularly run either. So it’s natural to have some decisions made by government that don’t work well. It’s natural to have decisions in each individual life that don’t work very well. We live in a world of sensor owners decision. That’s, that’s, that’s, that’s what human beings get to cope with in their days of life. So I don’t expect the world to be free, you follow you and mistakes and so forth. And I just hope I’m invested with people have more good judgments and bad judgement. I don’t know anybody who’s right all the time.

Becky 

And keep from Cupertino, California writes in and this is in the same vein, but a little more focused. How should we think about the political and political climate around Taiwan and the long term impact on the semiconductor industry? Specifically, do you see the chips and the science of the chips and science act favourably?

Charlie Munger 

Well, the semiconductor industry is a very peculiar industry. In the semiconductor industry, you have to take all the money you’ve made. And with each new generation of chips, you throw in all the money you previously made, so it’s compulsory investment of everything you want to stay in the game. Naturally, I hate a business like that. In Berkshire, we like a whole lot of surplus money to come into weakness, all the deals with. And, of course, now if you’re another head of it, like Taiwan Semiconductor is, that may be a good buy at these prices. I, it’s not at all clear to me that they’re not going to succeed mightily, but it’s, it’s a difficult, it’s a bit of an enormous promise for the big winner. But it’s a difficult business and requiring everybody to keep increasing the bets on and on with all the money. And so it’s not perfect that semiconductor business. But I remember when Intel won the World, Intel was once the Taiwan Semiconductor business of the world, they invented the damn business. And they dominated it for decades. And it’s not clear to me that Intel is going to have a very decent semiconductor business, getting as far behind as they are. No, it’s my answer is it’s not so damn foolproof as it looked.

Becky 

Even with the incentives to build plants here in the United States, like Intel is doing in Ohio.

Charlie Munger 

Well, of course, that will really help but they’re borrowing the money, there’s no indication the government is going to forgive the loans or something. It’s, it’s not like the reason why loads of business where they say, well, all your money, then then we’re here to keep the money. The government is not planning to do that with these new semiconductor loans. And so it’s not a field where I feel I have a lot of expertise. What the hell do I know about semiconductors?

Becky 

Do you worry about any conditions that the government would put on companies that end up using any of that money, but then like semicon or anything else?

Charlie Munger 

Well, of course, all of that it’s deeply intertwined with government policies that both China and the United States so I would rather have something that’s more foolproof myself. But I do think Taiwan Semiconductor is the strongest semiconductor company on Earth. So I, I have a big admirer of what they’ve achieved. It’s just incredible what they’ve achieved.

Becky 

Speaking of things you like, better on,

Charlie Munger 

maybe a wonderful investment, the fact that I don’t like it because I But old man and I don’t like learning new tricks. That doesn’t mean it isn’t right for some younger person that understands it better than I do.

Becky 

Okay, actually, that’s I’m gonna switch gears. We’ll come back to this question in a minute. But that leads me to this question about crypto that Benjamin writes in. He says in 2007, at the USC law school, Charlie said, I’m not entitled to have an opinion on this subject unless I can state the arguments against my position better than the people who are supporting it. The question is, Does this also apply to your Wall Street Journal article on banning cryptocurrencies? And if yes, would you care to share the arguments against your position?

Charlie Munger 

Well, I don’t think there are good arguments against my position, I think the people who oppose my position are idiots. So I don’t think there is a rational argument against my position. This is an incredible thing. Naturally, people like to run down and conceals where other people lose. And the people who invented this crypto crapple, which is my name for it. Sometimes I call it crypto crapple. And sometimes they call it crypto shit. And it’s just ridiculous anybody would buy this stuff isn’t. You can think of hardly nothing on earth. There’s no more go to the human race than currency, national currencies. They were absolutely required to turn me on from oh god damn successful ape. Modern, successful humans and human civilization has enabled all these convenient exchanges. So if somebody says I’m going to create something and sort of replaces the national currency, it’s like saying, I’m going to replace the national air, you know, it’s asinine. It is even slightly stupid. It’s massively stupid. And, of course, it’s very dangerous. Of course, the governments were totally wrong, Who permitted. And of course, I’m not proud of my country for allowing this crap. What I call the crypto shit. It’s worthless. It’s no good. It’s crazy. It’ll have nothing but harm. It’s anti social to allow it. And the guy who made the correct decision on this is the Chinese leader, the Chinese leader took one look at crypto shit. And he says not in my China. And boom, oh, well, there isn’t any crypto shit in China. He’s right, we’re wrong. And there is no good argument on the other side, I got cancelled. What

Becky 

does that counter what you said, you shouldn’t have a position and

Charlie Munger 

I don’t think you ought to be able to, you ought to be able to stay out a lot of issues you ought to be how big should the social safety net be? That’s the place where reasonable minds can disagree. And you should be able to state the case on the other side about as well as case you believe in. But when you’re dealing with something as awful as crypto, should you it’s just unspeakable. It’s an absolute horror, and that I’m ashamed of my country, that so many people believe in this kind of crap. And what the government allows it to exist is totally absolutely crazy, stupid gambling, with enormous house odds for the people on the other side, and they cheat in addition to the cheating and the betting. It’s just crazy. So that is something that there’s only one correct answer for intelligent people. Just totally avoid it. And avoid all people that are promoting it.

Becky 

How do you feel about the gambling that took place at the Super Bowl and surrounding that in the legalised gambling taking place in the country at this point?

Charlie Munger 

Well, it’s not as bad as crypto shit. I don’t think there’s much harm in bet betting a modest amount you can afford to have a Super Bowl game that that strikes me is pretty you know pretty we do it with a friend and not with a bookie. So I don’t, I don’t have the same feeling. I obviously don’t think you should have a gambling and bolting around betting against the odds. If you’ll take all the money that I bet against odds in my whole life. I don’t think it’s more than a few $1,000.

Becky 

Alan Kay writes in and he says if I’m all in favour, buddy with the odds with the odds, yeah. Alan Kay writes, I’m sure he says if Mr. Munger thinks that Bitcoin and Aetherium are rat poison, has he ever profited by shorting them?

Charlie Munger 

No, I don’t short. I have made three short sales in my entire life. And they’re all more than 30 years ago. An ad one was a currency and and there were two stock trades. It two stock trades. I made a big profit on one I made a big loss on the other and they cancelled out and I ended my currency bet I made a million dollars, but it was a very irritating way to me. I stopped

Becky 

not worth the headache. I guess you could

Charlie Munger 

laugh. But that’s that’s true. It was irritating. Because you were worried. Okay, like I’m asking you for more margin. I kept sending over Treasury notes. It was very unpleasant. I made a profit in the end, but I never wanted to do it again.

Becky 

Charlie, I said I’d come back to this question. This was about something that you do like as an investment Amit Patel from Montreal, Quebec, right saying that you love Costco. So what do you think can hurt Costco is economic moat in the long term.

Charlie Munger 

Well, as long as Costco keeps the faith, strong culture and their extreme low markup policy, I don’t see any stopping. The trouble was last goes it’s 40 times earnings. But But except for that it’s a perfect damn company. And it has a marvellous future. And it has a wonderful culture and it’s run by wonderful people and I love everything about Costco. I’m a total addict. I’m never gonna sell a share.

Becky 

are the next question comes from David Cass, who’s a professor of finance at the University of Maryland. He says he’s a shareholder, the Daily Journal Corporation, I would appreciate it if you don’t answer one of these questions. The question that I’m that I’ll ask him is President Biden has proposed increasing the tax on stock buybacks from its current level of 1% to a new higher level of 4%. What are your views on taxing stock buybacks?

Charlie Munger 

Well, I’m strongly opposed. Because I think if you’re a good culture has a lot of people that are good fiduciaries. And it is, is like stealing you do something dumb with the corporate money. Once you get more guys, your shoulders will buy back your own stock. And I like encouraging morality and decency and honour and some of your dealings with the people you’re the fiduciary for. And so I agree with our president on some things, but this is not one of them.

Becky 

They at least disagree. What vehemently disagree, say it again, do you vehemently disagree?

Charlie Munger 

Well, I’m not vehement because it’s not as bad as cryptocurrency it’s a forgivable error. But yes, I disagree. strongly. I think it’s a big mistake to to adopt that policy. But you know, I’m a Republican i i Sometimes vote for Democrats, but I am a Republican.

Becky 

And a question on stock buybacks comes in from Ed Princeville. in Morristown, New Jersey. He says Berkshire share repurchases slowed considerably from $3 billion in the first quarter of 2022 to a billion dollars in the second quarter and a billion dollars in the third quarter. Even though the price declined somewhat as to the general market, one would think that the buyback would increase with a lower stock price. Does Berkshire adjust its buyback price based on the intrinsic value of the approximately $300 billion stock portfolio or the quoted price.

Charlie Munger 

I never pay any attention to how they do it. They’re, they’re cautious and careful people. And but if you take the amount that’s been bought back in the last three years, it’s a lot. And I thoroughly approve what we’re doing. And I don’t get it at all fair that we’re being taxed, or doing something good for our own shareholders.

Becky 

The President laid out the case today, I think he said something like north of 90% of executives are paid with stock compensation, at least in part, he said maybe this was yesterday that he said this, he said that that’s not fair. The best way to goose your own compensation is to buy back your shares. So it helps the executives, it helps us hear about the shareholders, but it doesn’t help the employees or other constituents.

Charlie Munger 

Well, there’s no question about the fact that he sympathises with the employees more, and that’s understandable. And a lot of people would have the President’s orientation on that issue. And I don’t have a big opinion about how wealth ought to be distributed in the country. I think. I don’t know the answer. I do think we need a capitalistic system. And we want to have a productive economy that makes it a little easier to advance.

Becky 

Alright, the next question comes in from Michael and I think his last name is Moscow. But I’m going based on the address from the email and not given last name. He says he’s a very longtime Berkshire shareholder that who read an irritating recent Barron’s article that stated, Berkshire shareholders could benefit after Warren as the company could come under pressure to break up, I don’t see how we would benefit with our businesses being broken up as you and Warren have long stayed at the company as a whole is stronger than and one division could always add another division in need. He said he knows Warren and Charlie have said that the current structure and philosophies will be preserved after your departure. And I hope for a very, I hope not for a very long time, however, please offer our shareholders reassurance that the company would never succumb to these silly pressures to break it up.

Charlie Munger 

Well, I don’t think it’s at all likely, it’ll be broken up for a long, long time. A lot of companies are worth more dead than alive. At the current price for whole businesses. You could sell things at higher prices, they only do it once shareholders would pay big tax, then you’d have the problem of what to do with the money and so forth. I think all factors considered and with Berkshire buying and selling shares when they’re reasonably priced. I think Berkshire is a pretty damn good bet for shareholders to hold long term in the future. And I don’t think it’s any hardship. It hasn’t been broken up. It works pretty damn well. Everybody that bought Berkshire held it for 20 years has done well. I think that will be true for those who buy those the current price.

Becky 

What about the potential for pressure? I

Charlie Munger 

don’t think it’ll be as good in the future as it was in the past but it will be okay, considering a poorly everything else is gonna do.

Becky 

Why do you think everything else is gonna do so poorly?

Charlie Munger 

Because the valuations start higher now. And because government is so hostile to business?

Becky 

And that’s a view over the next 510 20 years, how far out are you thinking?

Charlie Munger 

I would say it’ll fluctuate naturally between administrations and so on. But but but I think basically the culture of the world will become more and more anti business in the big democracies and and I think taxes will go up not down. So I think in the investment world is gonna get harder for everybody. And but it’s been almost too easy in the past for the investment class. It’s natural, it would have a period of getting harder might not worry about too much. He’s not going to be dead. No, it won’t bother me very much.

Becky 

I guess you might want to people your 99 Nobody lives forever. That’s what you’re referring to. You’re not sick at the moment. Right?

Charlie Munger 

Now I’m eating this good being a rebel. That’s what you want to do if you want to live to be 99.

Becky 

We did get some people who wrote in

Charlie Munger 

to advertise my own product, but this is the key to longevity.

Becky 

I can see myself The bucks earlier, we didn’t get a lot people who wrote in questions just asking what your daily habits are, what you do every day, if you if you exercise if you think exercising a lot when you’re younger is important to longevity.

Charlie Munger 

Well, that’s a very, I have almost no exercise, except when the Army Air Corps made me do exercise. I’ve done almost no exercise on purpose in my life. I enjoyed the activity like tennis, I would exercise. But for the first nine years, I’ve gotten by without doing any exercise at all.

Becky 

And you’re not planning on changing that anytime soon.

Charlie Munger 

No, no, I’m not changing.

Steven Michael Jones 

Other people’s mileage may vary. Yeah.

Becky 

I’m looking for one question that somebody wrote in because I want to word it properly. And it has to do with what you’ve just been talking about? If I can find it, there’s a lot of questions in here. Oh, here it is. Somebody said this came from a DD gone in Australia. What would the 100th day of your life look like? And how would you want to spend it when you step out of bed in the morning?

Charlie Munger 

Well, I step out of my bed these days and sit down, sit down in my wheelchair. So I’m paying some price for old age, but I prefer it to being dead. And whenever I feel sad, maybe in a wheelchair, I think well, you know, Roosevelt ran the whole damn country for 12 years in a wheelchair. So I’m just trying to make this field here so they can last as long as Roosevelt did.

Becky 

That’s good plan. I like it. Somebody else wrote in this is Adam Mead. And he said, Charlie, in your 1995 talk, the psychology of Miss judgement, you listed sentiments as a cause of his judgement. You said old people like me get pretty skilled without working on it at disguising age related deterioration, because social convention like clothing hides much decline. You went on to say that such decline was inevitable. He says, You’re my hero, Charlie, and I offered you this question with the utmost respect, but feel it needs to be asked when 71 year old Charlie just to trust the judgement, mental capacity of 99 year old Charlie?

Charlie Munger 

Well, there’s no question about the fact that you lose some mental acuity as you get older, but somebody will get shrewder at adapting to their limitations, and they do pretty well. And so far, I’ve had plenty of decline, but I’m pretty shrewd about the way I handle it. And so far, the results have not been that bad in my old age. So I will be a different subject.

Becky 

Well, I will point out to people, we have not given you any of these questions in advance. So you’re taking blind questions. For Laura. Yeah, for a large stretch of time on this too. Okay, how do I follow that up? This one’s another question. This gets back to investing what we were just talking about a minute ago. But Michael quarterly, writes in and says, given the increasing rate environment, what are the ramifications of moving away from a close to zero interest rate policy, Warren and yourself are frequently spoken about Aesop. And a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush to describe the essence of investment decision making. So what do you do now that the interest rate environments changing?

Charlie Munger 

Well, there’s no question about the fact that interest rates have gone up, it’s it’s hostile to stock prices. And but they should go up but we couldn’t have kept them forever at zero. And, and I just think it’s just one more damn thing to adapt to him. Investment life is that there are there are headwinds and tailwinds. And one of the headwinds is inflation. And I think more inflation over the next 100 years is inevitable, given the nature of democratic politics, politics and democracy. So I think we’ll have more inflation. That’s one of the reasons the daily journal on securities instead of government bonds, owns common stocks instead of government bonds.

Becky 

When you say the nature of democratic policies, and I forget exactly how you worded it, are you talking about the Democratic Party? Are you talking about democracy as

Charlie Munger 

Trump ran a deficit that was bigger than the Democrats did it all democratic, all politicians in a democracy tend to be in favour of printing the money and spending it and that will cause some inflation over time? It may avoid fewer sessions, so it may not be all bad, but it will do more harm than good, I think from this point forward.

Becky 

Okay, on that point, Ron. Tree rotolight Ron Tortola says should we mean continue to maintain a debt limit? The adjustment process seems to be a very simple and mechanical process. However, such a measure only seems to create an environment rife with political jockeying and sniping. What’s the purpose if we continue to budget beyond our means. And then the bill comes to?

Charlie Munger 

Well, if you take the history of democracy in the world, and go back far enough, it fails a lot, and get succeeded by dictatorships and all kinds of awful things. And, as a matter of fact, the worst thing that happened to the human race in my lifetime, was an advanced civilization, like Germany, was taken over by a dictator as awful as Adel Hitler. That happened as a consequence of a big worldwide depression would never have happened if we hadn’t had the big depression. And once Hitler got into that, what that meant were World War Two was inevitable. And that could have worked out a lot worse than it did for the people like the United States. So the these things are quite important. And, and they’re not going to be done perfectly in the future, no more than they were done perfectly in the past. So So, of course, you gotta expect a certain amount of future trouble in the world and your government’s gonna do some things that aren’t exactly right. On the other hand, I would argue that the US government did some things magnificently right. I have said on many an occasion that if that makes me proud as to my own government, is the way we handled the sequel to World War Two. Instead of punishing the Germans and the Japanese, we made them into a zombie Best Friends on earth. Now that was a stunt. And it was to the credit of our country that that was done. And it was the only bipartisan basis. And I think we can all be proud of that that was a smart thing to do. It took some generosity, we had to give up some of our money to help them rebuild. And it was, it was a credit to our species that we behave that well on medication. And I don’t think our future behaviour will Alexa, similar episodes of some kind, but lacks similar episodes or something’s very right and Something’s very wrong. That’s, that’s the way that happens. Yeah,

Becky 

that’s very church. I’ll ask right. They’ll try everything, all the wrong, wrong things and do the right thing.

Charlie Munger 

No, I will. I will keep doing both Robin right. As far ahead, as you can see,

Becky 

um, Charlie owl piton writes in from Chicago and wants to know, if you think we might have on and off waves of inflation like we did prior to when Volcker stepped in at the Fed. And 70s era

Charlie Munger 

horses will happen some in the future? Yes. I think we’ll have some of that in the future.

Becky 

Do you think we have immediately right now with what Jay Powell is dealing with? I

Charlie Munger 

don’t I don’t I don’t, I don’t regard myself. I think I’m pretty good at long run expectations. But I don’t think I’m good at short term wobbles. I don’t know. The faintest idea is what’s gonna happen short term.

Becky 

Well, let me ask this one as a follow up, it’s it’s similar. And you may not wanna answer this one either. But Jake Dillard says, Do you have faith in Jay Powell? Are you expecting a soft landing?

Charlie Munger 

Well, here’s the way I feel about Jay Paul, is it I feel he’s about as good as we have any right to expect? I think he’s honourable and intelligent and doing the best he can. And I have no feeling that I know a lot of people who do it a lot better. So I have so I’m glad we have him.

Becky 

Charlie, another question comes in from Chris freed of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. He says you’ve recommended the use of an index fund for the average investor, as these index funds continue to expand in size, their influence on corporate boards, and ultimately management is ever increasing. This concentration of voting in the hands of a few index funds is alarming to me. Do you see this concentration as alarming as well? And what reforms would you suggest to address that issue?

Charlie Munger 

Well, of course, it’s a very serious issue, because it’s an enormous amount of power. And for a while always index funds got to feel like they were suddenly made godlike to clean up the world. And but Vanguard has retreated from that policy. And I think wisely so. And I have some hope that you think will follow. I don’t think it’s smart for for these index funds that don’t influence the policy and politics of the country. Just because they’re an index fund, I think they should be satisfied to eliminate some of the folly from investment management and do a better job for their clients, which I think they do very well. And I think they should be pleased with that and not try and run the whole damn country as a matter of corporate governance. I have no feeling that anybody at Vanguard or or Larry thinks operation has any special genius in how American corporations ought to be run. And the extent they asked me to do this, or that, I wish they’d stop.

Becky 

That’s for sure to do what to Oh, to follow. They’re, they’re

Charlie Munger 

just not interested in their views about Berkshire.

Becky 

Alright, this next question comes from Carsten federoff, who’s an equity analyst analyst from Germany, Germany. And his question is, stock based compensation is a popular means of incentive compensation and many companies. In some cases, these take on alarming proportions, it feels like companies are competing to outbid each other. In some companies, 20% of sales are paid out in stock based compensation. How do you perceive this development in recent years? And what’s a heavy? What’s a healthy level of incentives?

Charlie Munger 

Well, I think you will find in American corporations, very good incentive systems, and others that are too liberal, and others that are too niggardly. And what else would you expect of human nature, but a certain amount of variety. And I agree that some of this in many a corporation, everybody would vote to being allowed to have stock based compensation, you didn’t count in computing the earnings. They just want any damn way of making the earnings appear higher. It’s just human nature. Of course they want they’re like a little kid goes off to school, they want to have good grades, not bad grades. And so it’s sure there’s a big problem of excess Corporation. Pay in some places, other places like Costco, I would say the compensation system is damn near perfect. It’s it’s, and there’s a fair amount of stock, right? But we always buy enough stock in Costco to pay for the stock. We’re doing a lot of people in high tech the issue of the stock, and they don’t, they don’t buy it. And so it’s an illusion. I think there’s a lot that’s wrong in American compensation systems. And, but why wouldn’t there be by the way, when I was young, it wasn’t so bad. Like this is something that’s happened in the last 50 years. I don’t know it’s just a history of the way things came up and the greater hardship and the pioneering ethos or whatever it was, when I was young, nobody complained about executive compensation. Now frankly, everybody in the investment world thinks in many cases, executive compensation has gotten too high hit General Electric in its heyday think of all the big compensation packages, they paid and think of all they were phoning up the earnings and so forth to pay for it and it was disgusting. And and of course, if that kind of crap creeps in everywhere in our civilization, the civilization will perish. We need more honour, not less. And, but I haven’t any, I have no suggestion as to how to fix the places where it’s excessive. It’s a difficult issue really difficult.

Becky 

Jeffrey Malloy writes in and asked this question, He’s from San Francisco. He says, Do you think Elon Musk’s ownership of Twitter specifically, his hands off approach to content moderation is good or bad for American society?

Charlie Munger 

Well, you know, I don’t use Twitter. So I’m not a good judge on that subject. And my point was on Elan Musk is that he’s a very talented man, but also could peculiar and so I, I don’t buy him and I don’t sell him short. I just say, well, he’s a very unusual person.

Becky 

He said some nice things about him the last time I talked to you and what he’s done with Tesla.

Charlie Munger 

Oh, it’s unbelievable. Who else has done it except BYD just shows how tough capitalism is. Even if you’re a genius, genius, like Musk is in some ways. There’s always a little BYD that comes out and does better. Capitalism was not easy.

Becky 

Right, this question came in from Jeremy Salzburg in Costa Mesa, California. He says Charlie last year in 2022, Missouri court awarded a victim $5.2 million in compensation from Berkshire subsidiary Geico, after a woman was infected with an STD in a car that was insured by GEICO auto insurance. The claimant says that the man was negligent and didn’t tell her about his health diagnosis. Your grandfather was a judge and you have a background in law. Did the Missouri court get this verdict? Right?

Charlie Munger 

Well, I wouldn’t doubt it myself. But but it’s in the nature of things that not every court is going to be writing everybody, for every judgement. And, and I do think that allowing that you’ll get your raise a very tough subject. You will get occasional verdicts that are just totally outrageous. And and that’s inevitable. And of course, that’s what appellate courts are for but sometimes the appellate courts are very sympathetic with with with crazy verdicts. Again, I can’t fix everything that’s wrong with you in life, including a few crazy verdicts.

Becky 

You put that in the category of a crazy verdict, though. Yeah, sure. This question comes from Stefan Armand, who is writing in from Toronto, there was a lot of excitement about the relationship between Berkshire and 3g for the Kraft Heinz transaction, as your perception of the private equity business changed on the back of that partnership.

Charlie Munger 

Well, like every other human being on Earth, somebody else got better than others or 3G. They would love to have a way of going back and putting all their bad deals into good deals. Berkshire would like to have the same option if we don’t get it either. Average out 3G did pretty well. But recently there they’ve had some their approach hasn’t worked as well. In recent years isn’t as would be ideal. Again, welcome to human life It isn’t so damn too easy.

Becky 

RT presser writes in and says the Florida governor and legislative body has recently taken a stand to try and control Disney’s exclusive self governing authority previously set up in Florida under the founder Walt Disney as your organisation I guess, by this I mean, DJ co still owns Disney shares. You think Disney shares are still a good investment given this backdrop?

Charlie Munger 

We’ve never owned Disney shares. No, but Disney is an interesting case. Frankly, every business that Disney has, it’s gotten tougher than it used to be. Again, welcome to human life. Think about Disney once on the world. Lion King was running a long run on on the Theatre District of New York. They went from triumphs marching, marching, marching. All of a sudden on practically every front it’s more difficult. This is what happens. Imagine Kodak which totally dominated photography in the world, and the advent of this new ticket technology. Kodak wiped out its common shareholders.

Becky 

You think Disney’s headed down the same path? Do you think that there’ll be able to pivot? I mean, I know you follow the

Charlie Munger 

Disney has a lot of assets. But it’s unpleasant to have something. How would you like running the sports? ESPN now Disney compared to its heyday? It’s gonna be way harder for them. Movie movies look to me like it’s gonna be a bloodbath too. So it’s not about easy. It was easy. In the heyday of ESPN, Disney made nothing but money out of ESPN, the total goldmine.

Becky 

What about other movie businesses, I’m thinking of Paramount, which is a huge holding that Berkshire now owns. recently.

Charlie Munger 

I live within a few blocks of Paramount Studios. And I don’t even know anybody at Paramount. I have avoided the movies like the plague as an investor all my life. I’ve never made an investment in a movie business in any way, shape, or form. It always gives me the willows. I don’t like the unions. I don’t like the crazy agents. I don’t like the goddamn crazy lawyers. I don’t like the crazy movie stars. I don’t like the people who sell dope to them. Musicians. Everything about it is not my culture. I like those old English actors when they came over. You know, I grew up with him. And but basically, movies is not my same. So I’ve I’ve I’ve avoided it’s it’s always been very hard for the people or one of them. It may be a very good place to make a living as an actor or a writer or somebody or a musician. But it’s a hard place to make money if you’re an investor.

Becky 

This one’s an interesting question. I came in from Eric how in Milwaukee, who says the population of the world is thought to increase by more than fourfold time, since you were born? Mind you, I’m not holding you personally responsible. But there has been that magnitude of growth. Is there a point where the biggest existential threat to humanity is the growth of the population and humanity? If so, how do we discern when that point has arrived?

Charlie Munger 

Well, that’s an interesting subject. If you’d look at the way things have happened in the past, you would have concluded like, while they’re like dead, that the world’s headed for an absolute population disaster, but what actually has happened is quite different. What’s happened is that as the world has gotten more and more prosperous, including in places like China, the birth rate has gone down, down, down, down. And so that is actually sort of a population shortage in places like Japan. So the production of all the great experts based on extrapolating the past graphs that are not totally wrong. It now looks as though the world’s population in the advanced countries was sort of self limiting.

Becky 

I mean, that kind of put you in the same camp with Elon Musk, he’s made some of the same arguments that it’s really a shrinking population, that’s a bigger threat to humanity.

Charlie Munger 

As I said, he’s a smart man. Sometimes.

Becky 

Danny Poland writes in and says, When assessing the character and competence of a business’s management, have you ever made a mistake? If so, when did this occur? And what did you learn from the experience?

Charlie Munger 

Well, everybody makes mistakes. I’m one of the actually, one of the most interesting things that happened in my lifetime, was the rise of IBM, and the fall of IBM. IBM was the most admired company in America for most of my young life. They just marched from time to time And in the last 10, or 15 years, they slipped in there. They’re falling back in relation to other people in their field, as the apples and the Googles, and so forth, game ahead, IBM just, they kind of missed the boat. I think that’s almost inevitable. Kodak missed the boat have changed digital photography, too. And I’ve heard Bill Gates say that it’s almost a rule and really disruptive technology comes along the incumbent screw up their reaction to it. It’s hard to change your ways when they’ve been successful for a long time, and go into a totally different way of behaving. And thinking

Becky 

right, this question where

Charlie Munger 

we’re sitting with a daily journal Corporation, we’re adapting to the new world, no different it is publishing a newspaper, and, and being embedding software records to automate. These are two radically different businesses.

Becky 

This question comes in from someone named Jean who says, Mr. Munger, do you think that currently in the United States we have systemic racism? We have what systemic racism?

Charlie Munger 

Well, I suppose we got so I’m sure. Of course, you’re gonna have a certain amount of animosity, one group toward another, the whole history of the human race, we’ve had a certain amount of that. I think it’s gotten way better in my lifetime. However, I would argue the racism has gone down. A lot.

Becky 

Charlie, this question comes in from Neil Das, who says, What, if any impact do you think the insurance industry will see because of climate change over the next 25 years?

Charlie Munger 

Well, I’m not sure I only go to answering that kind of a question.

Becky 

Are you raising rates in any of the Berkshire insurance companies? I don’t

Charlie Munger 

think I don’t think I know particularly I well. I think there’s a good chance that climate change will be less important than all people think. That doesn’t mean it’ll be unimportant. But I think it won’t be an absolute fool button or capacity with no possibility into it. Just

Becky 

wait, because sometimes when I wait, you say more on things. But I’ll give you time to. Okay. Let me get to this question from Tony Huang. He says that he’s teaching the introduction of personal finance and the introduction of corporate finance to undergraduates at Indiana University in Bloomington, most of the students are non finance majors. And this will likely be the only finance class that they take in college. What should he teach them incorporating as many writings and speeches that you’ve given over the years so that they have the foundations and common sense to effectively deal with their personal or corporate finance problems later in life?

Charlie Munger 

Well, it’s actually a good question, because it’s a big question. And if you have good judgement, your life will work a lot better than if you have bad judgement. And you get good judgement gradually over time, partly by making bad judgments and having them work out poorly. So my counsel has always been a start trying to be better and keep doing, keep trying to improve all your life. And you got about have a chance. You don’t do that you got like no chance. And so I I used to say I can only teach what the other person almost knows. And I can just tell them over the break when he’s hanging on the edge. But if the guy is not within miles even starting, I never make any any public I never succeed. To enrol, we get easy I represent failure. I’ve never succeeded.

Becky 

What would you push in that direction, if you’ve got a class full of finance students in college, maybe one of the few lessons I would teach

Charlie Munger 

to the people who could learn in the elders couldn’t keep up the hill with them can’t be improved can’t be improved. I just I don’t believe anybody my head against the wall. And that by the way, that’s where most education works. They just throw out those who can’t keep up. That’s the way academia works. That’s the reason it gets so good at the top. I talked yesterday on zoom with a law professor at a great place. I got this is an admirable guy. He’s just so goddamn smart and bounces. Incredible. But he’s a very senior law teacher, one of the great law schools of the world. So I would expect him to be pretty good, but he was more than pretty good. He was awesome. And I thought I got academics quite competitive. You know, by the time you get to the top of the professor’s in a good place, you’ll find some very remarkable people. And, but what they can’t, there’s a limit to what they can accomplish. One of the reasons they turn out such good people is they take in such good people, that’s their secret. They can’t fix the clouds. Nobody can. Tough love an old saying dominance dominance forever.

Becky 

Diamond diamonds Alejandro Salcedo writes in he says reading many entrepreneurs and famous people, they always say that you have to dream really big. Instead, you say, Charlie, that the secret to a happy life is having low expectations. Could you please expand on that?

Charlie Munger 

What Yes, you climb as hard as you can by just advancing one inch at a time. That’s the secret of life. And now there’s always somebody who’s a little nuts who succeeds. But that’s the for every guy who’s exceeds their 1000 failures.

Becky 

Is this an under promise over to over deliver situation to?

Charlie Munger 

Well, of course, who in the hell is right? Mine would like going around making a lot of commitments and failing time after time after time, but doing what you promised to do. Everybody would hate you, right? There’s no more guaranteed way to make people hate you than to fail, and they’re reasonable expectations. So, of course, you want to live a life where by and large, you’re meeting the reasonable expectations of other people. That’s what civilization requires of all of us.

Becky 

Charlie, someone named Joe Rodin from China, and he says he’s an investor from China. He’s sorry, that he can’t see you face to face this year. He wants to ask you a question about life during the pandemic. He says I always give bits of advice to the elders in my family, like avoiding high temperatures and falling down at home. But during the pandemic, especially since China reopened, I can sell them give them any advice except stay at home and get vaccinated. So as a wise elder yourself, did you get COVID during the pandemic, and how do you stay healthy? What’s your advice to these elders?

Charlie Munger 

I did get COVID. But I got it after I was vaccinated, and I had like a tiny sniffle for about 10 minutes. That was my COVID. But I tested positive during that time. And, and in terms of the general idea of cautious adjustment. I’ve had a lot of elderly friends who either died or had terrible injuries from falls. And so when I got older myself, and it got time to use something to avoid falling down. People tried to sell me on the cane. But I noticed that my friends will use canes would fall down occasionally. So I did I never use the goddamn cane. Instead, I bought one of these modern walkers and wherever I was worried about falling down, I pushed my walker, I did that for six and a half years. I never fell down once in six and a half years, just because I was more cautious. That is my advice to old people just be a little more cautious. Now I’ve gotten to the wheelchair. And I’ve got another six and a half years probably. But I’ve already used up and and I’m just as cautious with my wheelchair. What is the harm of having a little extra caution?

Becky 

It makes sense. When I pivot to a question from Frank Wang and Houston, Texas, this question about Berkshire, he said Berkshire previously took a position in Exxon and then exited fairly quickly. If I recall correctly, he says I believe you had stated that Berkshire thought it was a good alternative to cash at the time is the same type of thinking with Berkshires new position and Occidental and Chevron. Is it the same type of thinking? Or is it likely to be more of a long term type of holding for Berkshire going forward?

Charlie Munger 

Well, that is a very good question. And I think having a big position in the Permian Basin, through those two companies is likely to be a pretty, pretty good long term hold. So I liked that aspect of that position. And Ben Graham used to say if it’s a good investment, that may be a good speculation, and I think that’s generally true, but I don’t do those short term speculations, at least not very often. But I liked the big position that Berkshire has in the Permian through those, I kind of admire both places. A lot. Both Occidental and Chevron are very admirable places. And, by the way, if you didn’t start like that, you go back 30, 40 years off, he wasa crook. And it’s a, it’s evolved into a wonderful place, but it started as a sleazebag.

Becky 

Who was running at 30 or 40 years ago.

Charlie Munger 

A man named Armand Hammer. Oh, before your time, Becky, you’re too young.

Becky 

I know. Armie Hammer the younger one. Yeah, yeah. Anyway. All right, Paul, D writes in, and I believe it’s all Dan mcop says, Charlie, you’re largely credited with Warren Buffett’s evolution to buying great businesses at a reasonable price or in simple terms a willingness to pay up for a great business, given Ben Graham’s exceptional insights and understanding of investing how or why did he himself not evolve to foresee the inability to scale his net net cigar butt approach? What do you attribute your early willingness to pay up stems from?

Charlie Munger 

Remember, a lot of Ben Graham’s rise in life was during a period when there was plenty of low hanging fruit among mediocre businesses that were way too cheap. And he was relatively rare and in doing his hunting in that garden, and so he made a pretty good living for himself by knees. It what happened is that, that low hanging fruit eventually went away as the aftermath of the Great Depression went away. And then Graham actually made more than half of all the money he made in his life out of one stock. And that stock was Geico, which was a great business. So if you actually look at the great man’s own life, you’ll see that what he taught wasn’t the way he got rich himself. By the way, he told that story on himself late in life. He carefully computed how much he made it, compared to everything you’ve ever done this previous life. And so you could argue that Ben Graham himself woke up once.

Becky 

What? Why do you think that you so early on, were willing to come up with this idea of paying up for great businesses?

Charlie Munger 

Well, because it’s so obvious, and I’m good at doing things that are obvious. Of course, it was obvious if you wanted to have a good result you had to a great company, you know, I I recognised that greatness wasn’t good, you know, big deal. Charlie Munger, genius recognises greatness as good. Course greatness is good.

Becky 

Paul, he from Toronto, Canada writes, and he says, when you’re evaluating a company for potential investment, what do you place the most emphasis on the business or the management? And do you differ with Warren, when it comes to what you place first?

Charlie Munger 

No, no, it was the same. I think we like the business great first. And then second, we want a great manager. But we we have not made a huge success by investing in great managers, they go over lousy businesses, that is not the way we rose.

Becky 

Matt McAllister

Charlie Munger 

with a lousy manager, you’re really you really need a great business.

Becky 

And can a great business be run by a lousy manager? The inverse.

Charlie Munger 

So sometimes, Coca Cola was run for years by a man with very severe mental impairment. And the directors just assumed he was drunk. And today, they’re, you’re up here. Now that’s mighty a wonderful business that you can be mentally defective and wrote pretty well, that was Coca Cola in its ad.

Becky 

How far back are we talking?

Charlie Munger 

Well, 25 years.

Becky 

Let somebody else do the math on that figure out the timing. Matt McAllister writes in and says, Charlie, you’ve described too much diversification as the worst suffocation being at best an average return for producing strategy. And light of that thought, if one was allowed only one stock to hold for a very long time. And it would be the most important asset to him and his family and their future well being, please describe what you would look for in that stock or company, and also talk about the features that you would consider most important when you’re trying to figure that out?

Charlie Munger 

Well, it helps to have somebody that said, let’s get into a good position. So a great business, it’d be what you’d like. And of course, you’d like great management to. And occasionally, we’ve had both the ride together for a long, long period. And but of course, everybody’s looking for the same thing. And the trouble with it is you will find when you get those good businesses, and places picked over and analysed this, American stocks are, as you can imagine, the amount of time spent thinking about American stocks. And you will find, by and large in America, what’s really a great business, it’s at least 25 times earnings, and maybe 30, or 35, or something. So that makes it that much harder, of course, because if something goes wrong, you can lose a lot of your investment. And, and, of course, that’s what makes investment so difficult is the fact that the good business, the good businesses don’t stay cheap. You have got to somehow recognise a good business before it’s recognisable as a good business. That’s very hard to do. Some people get good at it, but not many. I don’t think I would want 95% of the people who are America’s professional asset managers, I wouldn’t want working for me that hard. Either you need to be in the top fibres zone. To have a reasonable chance. It’s it’s very difficult. Now it’s not difficult. Just buy an index and selling your asset that that’s the great default position your assets. And by the way, that’s that’s if you said look at the daily journal Corporation, we just put it in a 401 K plan. What are the investment options for the people that work? Zero? It’s all index funds. And if you what percentage of American what percentage of American 401 ks To have our plan index funds required above zero, am I right? Or am I wrong? Of course I’m right. That’s a logical thing to do.

Becky 

Okay, so percent worth two and 20.

Charlie Munger 

Sometimes sometimes be worth doing plenty, I would say. That is way less than 5%. No man is worth two and 20. That is really that’s getting gets getting very rare indeed, purely under modern conditions where every niche is occupied. It’s you really, if you take early stage venture capital, like Sequoia does, how many people have a Sequoia like record? I don’t think there’s one in 100 Desert square that record.

Becky 

Chris Reed from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania writes in and says you’ve said previously that

Charlie Munger 

even even Sequoia makes an occasional mistake. You know, everybody does.

Becky 

But overall, you think it’s worth it? Okay, so Chris Reid writes in from Philadelphia and says, You’ve previously you’ve said previously that you should destroy at least one good idea that you have each year what good idea did you destroy in 2022, and anything in 2023 so far?

Charlie Munger 

Well, the idea that I destroyed this, it was, it wasn’t a good idea was a bad idea. When the internet came in, I got overcharged by the people who were leading in the online retailing. And I didn’t realise it’s still retailing, you know, it may be online retailing. But it’s also still retailing and I just, I got a little out of focus. And that had me overestimate the future returns from Alibaba. And, and so I have never gotten twice, eliminate mistakes.

Becky 

I think I just lost Charlie’s

Charlie Munger 

rubbing my own nose in my own mistakes I’m doing now, because I think it’s good for myself.

Becky 

I can hear me but I can’t hear you. You dropped out during that last question. Can you do me a favour, just raise your hand if you can hear me you can hear me, I’m not hearing him. So if you guys can call in, I’m hooked in directly to the line. Now I’m hearing programme, not this programme. I’m hearing live on your programme coming from your music that’s coming in. Charlie, I’m gonna ask you another question just so that everybody else doesn’t have to listen to that, to me talking this through, we’re gonna try get this fixed here in the control room. But this question comes in from, let’s see, let’s go to this one. Chris Varanasi who asked the question about he says, Hi, Charlie, a notable theme during the last daily journal conversation revolved around positive and negative trade offs between different systems, frameworks and choices. Can you discuss your views on the healthcare industry, specifically, the trade offs between capitalist systems like the United States and single payer systems like Canada in the UK? And I’m asking this single payer health care question, because for those who don’t know, you serve for a long time as chairman at a hospital in Los Angeles. So you do have some insights into what this situation is, and feel free to talk a long time while they’re fixing this. Well, yeah. So

Charlie Munger 

when somebody asked Warren, what happened when their experiment with JPMorgan Chase and Amazon and so forth, and they were gonna change, improve the what was wrong with American medicine and its cost? And, and when they gave that up as a total failure, Warren just said the tapeworm one. And that’s what happens if the American system is cost way too much. Can you hear me?

Becky 

Surely I see your lips have stopped moving. So I’m gonna ask another question. Yeah, I’m hearing power lines on my ear right now, if anybody’s paying attention, the control room. But this question comes in. From Brad heck, Brad, heck is in South St. Paul, Minnesota and says, Charlie, I’m a big fan of your disciplined approach to life. Do you get up at the same time every day and go to the bed at the same time? And finally, what’s the first thing you focus on each day?

Charlie Munger 

Well, I vary a little in my time, but I’m pretty regular. And I’m a pretty good sleeper in my old age, so I’m very lucky in that respect.

Becky 

See, your lips have stopped moving. So I’m gonna. Got you. I got you. Oh, finally. I hear you. Okay, Charlie, let me ask you this question got sound again? Yeah, I’ve

Charlie Munger 

got your technology. Yeah, no, I

Becky 

think we sometimes it works. Jim Well writes in and said, If you could integrate anyone for President in 2024, who would you choose?

Charlie Munger 

Well, I think I’ll duck that one. I don’t want to get into presidential politics.

Becky 

Okay, I hear that. I can understand that. Charles writes in and says, first of all, I wants to thank you Charlie for gifting some DJ co shares to establish that newly that new daily journal management equity incentive plan. He talked about that earlier on, he said additionally, he’s excited about the rumoured new edition of poor Charlie’s Almanack. First of all, is that true, but the real question he has for you, he said, you said that you admire Benjamin Franklin, and can you please elaborate on the subject and highlight the qualities that you admire in Ben Franklin?

Charlie Munger 

Well, Ben Franklin, was a genius. It was a small country, but memory he started in absolute poverty. His father made soap out of the carcasses of dead animals with stank that is a very low place to start from. And he was almost entirely self educated two or three years of primary school and after that, he had to learn grow and so will arise from that kind of a starting position and become a tiny diet. He was the best inventor in his country, the best scientists in this country, the best writer in this country, the best diplomat in this country. You know, thing after thing after thing he was the best there wasn’t a whole United States. He was a very unusual person, and he just got an extremely high Whew in a very kind of pithy way of talking that made him very useful to his own citizens, and he kept inventing all these things. Oh, man, imagine inventing the Franklin stove and bifocal glasses and all these things that we use all the time. I’m wearing bifocal glasses, as I’m looking at you. These are Ben Franklin glasses, but they have kind of a man that just goes through life. And it’s a it gets a little perfect. He invented the goddamn bifocals. And it was just one of his many inventions. So he was a very, very remarkable person. And, of course, I admire somebody like that. We don’t get very many people like Ben Franklin. Thinking the library system is the best writer in his he was the best writer in his nation, and also the best scientist, and also the best and better record that ever happened again. Yes, yes. All these other things. Yes.

Becky 

So is there a new edition, unfortunately,

Charlie Munger 

we played four different musical instruments. And one of which he invented was the way he invented the glass thing that remedy singers. Oh, my God. They still play it occasionally. Yeah, we’d like different lay overs. But he actually played on four different instruments.

Becky 

Yeah, and he’s a diplomat, and helps Yeah, make the rules the country and taught us about compound interest with the the trust that he set up for both Philadelphia and for Boston that still hundreds of years later or paying out?

Charlie Munger 

No, he was a very amazing person, because the country was glad that we were lucky to have him.

Becky 

Is it true? Is there a new for Charlie’s Almanack coming out?

Charlie Munger 

Well, they’re creating an online edition. Okay. You’ve talked about some of the way the Chinese edition Sold Way more than one the United States, and there’s more people there. That’s not the sole reason why else. Well, a ritual man looks like Confucius. And their system. There’s nothing better than a ritual man. Yeah.

Becky 

Charlie saying Park. Right. So the question, and this is about delayed gratification taken to the extreme, how rational is it for a person of your age and wealth to practice delayed gratification? If it’s not rational at your age? How is it rational to delay gratification for the average adult? So what’s the rational point in life to live with no delayed gratification to I’m still,

Charlie Munger 

I’m still doing it. Now that I’m older, I buy these apartment houses, it gives me something to do. And we’re doing it we run them the way everybody else runs them. Everybody else is trying to show high income so we can hike distributions. We’re trying to find ways to intelligently spend money to make them better. And and of course, our apartment who better than other people do, because the man who runs them doesn’t so well for me, the man or two young men, they do it with me. And but it’s all deferred gratification. We’re looking for opportunities to refer other people are looking for ways to enjoy it’s a different way of going at life. Did you start out that way? Or you get more enjoyment out of my life doing it my way than theirs?

Becky 

Did you start out having to work at delayed gratification? Or is that just how you were born?

Charlie Munger 

No, I learned this trick early. And you know, I’ve done that experiment with two marshmallows with little kids. Yeah. Wait, yeah. And they’ve done. Watch them how they work out in life by now. And the delayed grasses, the little kids who are gonna, during the marshmallows are all also the people that succeed in life. It’s kind of sad that so much is inborn, so to speak. But you can learn to some extent to

Becky 

so go home and test that out of my kids.

Charlie Munger 

I was very lucky. I just naturally took the deferred gratification very early in life. And, of course, it’s helped me ever since.

Becky 

Matt McAllister writes in and says, first, thank you for sharing your wisdom. Those of us fortunate enough to listen have benefited significantly. We’ve come to know that Warren Buffett, we’ve come to know Warren Buffett as a learning machine because of your candid descriptions. Aside from this quality, what others would you credit to Warren that has helped make him one of the greatest investors and compounders of the world’s ever seen?

Charlie Munger 

Well, Warren is not only a very good good thinker, and a good learner, which is important. But Warren has a big, strong, fiduciary gene, he cares about what happens to the shareholders. Warren and I were lucky, and that’s the early shareholders or people who trusted us and we were young and didn’t have a reputation and so on. And naturally, we feel an exceptional loyalty to those people. And of course, naturally, they’re all dead now. But we’re still loyal to them. Warren and I still care what happens to the Berkshire shareholders a lot. And I think that helps us I think, it helps if you’re good at loyalty.

Charlie Munger 

Go ahead, Becky.

Becky 

Okay, so Bala syrup pen and Baucom writes in and says that many large companies, including meta, which owns Facebook, and various insurances are choosing to self insure against liability either for directors or for the business risks. If it’s carried to extremes, it would note as it no doubt will be over time. This could cause potential systemic issues. Would you share your thoughts on this, please? He says he’s been a shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway for 16 years. Thank you for your stewardship and sharing your thoughts generously with the younger generations.

Charlie Munger 

In my own life, I’m a big self insurer. And so as Warren it’s ridiculous for me to carry fire insurance on my houses because I could sell it easily rebuild a house that burned down. So why would I want to bother fooling around with the claims process and all kinds of things. So if insurance is you should insure against things you can’t afford to pay for yourself. But if you can afford to take the bumps you know, someone usual expense coming along doesn’t really hurt you that much. Why would you want to fool around with some insurance company? If your house burned down? I would just write a check and rebuild it. And, and all intelligent people do it my way. I won’t say all but maybe I should say all intelligent people should do it my way. There should be way more self insurance in life. There’s a lot of ways you’re paying, like you buy insurance for the other fellows frauds. And there’s a lot of fraud in life. And you can afford to take the risk yourself and not fool around with claims and this and that, and commissions and time, of course itself, insurance simpler and so forth. Think of what I’ve saved in my life. I never. Okay, I never carry never, I think once I. But with one exception, I never carry collision insurance on my car. And once I got rich, I stopped carrying fire insurance on houses. I just opened Sure.

Becky 

It’s a little bit of a surprising take for the insurance that is the right way to do it. Well, that’s a little bit of a surprising take from a guy who’s a vice chairman of Berkshire, which has so many insurance companies.

Charlie Munger 

Well, but I’m not. I’d rather tell it the way it is. And until it in a way that helps Berkshire, I’m not going to tell it differently than I think it really is just because it’s better for Berkshire. Even though it’s bad for Berkshire, I want to tell you if you can afford to self insure self insure

Becky 

even on things like medical, or I just think you might think you

Charlie Munger 

know that that is never insurer pays the doctor in the hospital is a small fraction of what you pay. So that’s a different kind of calculus. Everything in medicine is the cost of American medical care and medical insurance, it’s a disgrace. If you go to Singapore, you will find that they do the whole thing better than we do when it costs 20% of what we pay. And again, I my audio, by the way, I have no idea of how to get from where we are to where Singapore is. Because all the people are getting all that extra money fight like fierce Tigers hold on to it. And they control boards and cities and states and our yoga. So I don’t I don’t know how to fix the cost in American health care. They’re totally under control. And I weren’t ready to fix it with Amazon all that stuff. He failed to everybody’s failed. Every American has a marvellous record failing and handling our cost of medicines.

Becky 

Matt McAllister writes in and I realised these last couple questions, I didn’t realise this was a repeat sentence. But I like the questions. He said, What are some of the most important things that we need to know about Greg Abel? Have you experienced examples of him also being a learning machine? And if so, could you share one?

Charlie Munger 

Yeah, well, Greg is just sensational at being a business leader, both as a thinker and as a doer. And he’s also sensationally good at smoothly getting things done through other people. So he’s a very remarkable human being. And Berkshire is very lucky to have him. And, and he’s also always has a tremendous learning machine, you can argue that he’s just as good as Warren is learning all kinds of things. And one of the interesting things about Greg is there’s some things he’s better at than Warren is, and more knows that, and he just keeps dumping on to Greg, everything that Greg can do better. And it’s a lot. And, and so the system at Berkshire is working right now. Well, we’re very lucky to have a 92 year old is as good shape as Warren anyway. And we’re very lucky to have us, a chief executive like, Greg, Greg is very remarkable. Greg is trusted by insurance regulated by utility regulators, and rightly so he is trying to run all those utilities as if he were the regulator. Now, many people think that way. But it’s such a smart way to think.

Becky  

Even just from a show of good faith.

Charlie Munger 

Yeah, why not play here? Why not do it the way that you’d want it done? If you were on the other side of the transaction? How can you fail if you treat other people with what you’d like if you did it to yourself? It’s the golden rule. Of course, it works.

Becky 

Alright, so my name Jim writes in and I asked this question, because I got a lot of similar ones just in terms of investments. But this one is probably a question that a lot of people as they start to get up 65 and beyond start to wonder, he just says, Would you recommend I take Social Security when I’m 67? Or wait till I’m 70? When I’ll receive more per month?

Charlie Munger 

Well, I can make that choice for you. It’s It depends. You know, you’re gonna be dead pretty soon, I go ahead and have more money to spend. You think you may live a long time you will have a different calculus. And I would say that most, most people who are healthy and so forth, and they’ll have a pretty good life expectancy. Generally, they’re wise to defer the Social Security taking and take more money later.

Becky 

I guess it’s optimistic thinking too. If you’re thinking that you’re living long time, that’s the way to play it out.

Charlie Munger 

Well, what do you do, Becky?

Becky 

Well, I’m not 65 yet, so I haven’t thought about it yet. I’m waiting. My guess is I would

Charlie Munger 

I don’t think you’re gonna need social security. Becky, I’m not worried about you.

Becky 

I think I would work longer. I’m naturally conservative. So loping Will Young right then you urged the US government to ban cryptocurrencies as China has done I have a more general question with boom and bust cycles and different countries in history. What should a good government do and not do for economic growth?

Charlie Munger 

Well, what you got to do if you want growing GDP per capita, which is what everybody should want, you’ve got to have most of the property and private And so the most of the people who are making decisions about our properties to be cared for on the property in question that makes the whole system so efficient that GDP per capita gross system, we have easy exchanges, digital currency system, and so on. And so that’s the main way of civilization getting rich is having all these exchanges, and having all the property in private hands. If you like violin lessons, and I need your money, when we make a transaction, we’re gaining on both sides. So of course, GDP goes like goes like crazy when you got a bunch of people are spending their own money and owning their own businesses and so on. And nobody in the history of the world that I’m aware of has ever gotten from Hunter gathering, to modern civilization, except through a system where most of the property was privately owned. A lot of freedom of exchange. And, by the way, I just said something that’s perfectly obvious, but doesn’t really talk that way. In most education, even though you can take a course on economics in college and not know that what I just said. They don’t teach it exactly the same way. Anyway,

Becky 

that would be your your best.

Charlie Munger 

Okay. Yeah, yeah.

Becky 

This one comes in from Matt. And he says, throughout your experience with Berkshire Hathaway, what are a few of the things that have surprised you most based upon some of your previous rational thoughts and ideas? Also, how have you used some of those surprises in your quest to become a better learning machine?

Charlie Munger 

I would say the things that some of the things that surprised me the most was how, how much dies The business world is very much like the physical world, where all the animals die in the course of improving all the species, so they can live in niches and so forth. All the animals die on, eventually all the species die. That’s the system. And when I was young, I didn’t realise that that same system applied to what happens with capitalism, dollar businesses, they’re on their way to dying as the answer. So other things can replace them in lieu, and causes some remarkable death. Imagine having Kodak die. It was one of the great trademarks of the world, there was nobody that didn’t use film, they dominated film, they knew more about the chemistry of film than anybody else on Earth. And of course, the whole damn business went to zero. And and look at Xerox is once you own the world, it’s just a pale shrink, it’s nothing compared to what it once was. So practically everything dies, if you aren’t big enough time scale, when I was young enough, that was just as obvious then I didn’t see it for a while, you know, things that looked at her and only been around for a long time, I thought I would like to be that way when I was old. But a lot of though disappeared, practically everything dies in business. None of the eminence lasts forever. Think of all the great departments who are saying about long, they were the most important thing in their little community. They’re way ahead of everybody in furnishing credit, convenience, and all seasons, you know, convenience back and forth use in banks of elevators and so forth, multiple floors, it looked like they were eternal. They’re basically all dying, or dead. And so that, once I understood that better, I think it made me a better investment investor, I think.

Becky 

I mean, the same can be said for managers. I’ve talked with Doug McMillon of Walmart, who carries around in his wallet like on him, he carries around the list of the top retailers over the decades. And nobody’s ever saying, you know,

Charlie Munger 

we’re gone. Yes, yes, of course. Retailers live in terror. Because you can die. So we got to become a better way of doing it. And you just die. Like those department stores? Did.

Becky 

The ones that you invested in early on even the Baltimore

Charlie Munger 

Well, no, most of them think a little bit warmer stores that are gone just chain after chain after chain and big data, that they’re not weakened, they’re dead. They’re gone dead. And, and tam IBM have a huge position at once they had in terms of utter dominance. And now it’s just one of the also RANS. It’s still an admirable place. I’m

Charlie Munger 

sure they have a lot of talent left and IBM doesn’t help you die even though you’re talented and hardworking.

Becky 

Arthur Kahn writes in and he’s a daily journal shareholder who lives in Toronto. And he says Mr. Munger, well, many of us admire you and look up to you. I want to ask Who were some of the people you most admired and looked up to? What was it about them that made them so special?

Charlie Munger 

Well, some of the best people, I would argue that Jim Senegal at Costco was about as well adapted for the executive Gary got. And by the way, he didn’t go to Wharton, he didn’t go to the Harvard Business School. And he started work at age 18, in a store. And he rose to be CEO of Costco. And in fact, he was a founder, under a man named Sal price. And I would argue that what he accomplished in his own lifetime was one of the most remarkable things in the whole history of business in the history of the world. Jim Senegal, in his life, he’s still very much alive. But he’s, but you know, one business further, it’s all life, basically. And he just got so damn good at it, there was practically nothing he didn’t understand, large or small. And there aren’t that many Jim Snuggles. And somebody else for a job that have the kind he has. Greg a bow in a way, it’s just as good as Greg sound, because you guys are gonna have a genius for the way he handles people and so forth and problems. And I can’t tell you how I admire somebody who has enough sense to kind of run these utilities. And so he were the regulator. He’s not trying to pass on the cost because he can’t do it. He’s trying to, he’s trying to do it the way he’d wanted it done. If he were the regulator instead of the executive. Of course, that’s the right way to run the utility. But how many are really well run that way? So there’s some admirable businesspeople out there, and I’ve been lucky to have quite a few of them involved in my life. The guy who ran TTI was a genius. TTI is a Berkshire subsidiary of New Delhi general feel that things are lucky you’d be if we still had our monopoly on publishing our cases or something, we’d be like PTI Well, TTI is just hard sometimes to drown.

Charlie Munger 

And it was run by a guy, he got fired and created the business. Got fired from where he invented the whole general defence contractor, I forget which one. Yeah, I can’t remember exactly. But he was a terrific guy. And, and he ran the business for us, he wouldn’t let us raise his pay. How many people have the problem with their managers? They won’t let them they won’t allow you to raise their pay. It’s pretty rare. Yeah.

Becky 

Charlie, I spoke with a friend of yours yesterday and his question that he had for you is what quality has helped you the most in life?

Charlie Munger 

Well, that’s easy rationality. If you’re just not crazy If you have a big advantage over 95% of the people, because most of you will have all kinds of crazy patches, and if you just are consistently not crazy, you have you got a big advantage in life. If you’re patient and the gratification differ in addition to being not crazy, that’s practically essential. And if you’re exceptionally good at satisfying, you’re kind of other people that you got, you just automatically improved your resources and your chances in life enormously, and so simple. And why don’t more people do it? It’s an interesting question. I don’t think you can educate your children to do it automatically. I’m telling you, if you have 10 children, you’ll have some that are a lot better than others doing this.

Becky 

That harder with success, age, wealth, to hold on to rationality.

Charlie Munger 

I think it’s, it’s always hard, but you get better at it. If you get good at it young keep practising. But it’s never easy. If you had to question somebody asked, what one sock would you buy? If you had to just rely on that one sock only for your sole living expenses? You weren’t allowed to have any income at all. You just had to invest a million dollars and live on that one stock? How many people would give an intelligent answer to that question in America? I don’t think it’s more than 100. I think it would even ought to begin.

Becky 

I think one of my favourite things that I’ve heard you say and it’s something I repeat often to a lot of people is whatever you are age and wealth makes you more so I came up with that a while ago. What led you to that? You have of course yeah. Do you have any?

Charlie Munger 

I think that’s true that we all tend to we all we all tend to get a little more so in every way. And

Charlie Munger 

I thought of that when I woke up this morning and put on my trousers. I thought you know I really economise in buying those trousers. Why am I economising and my trouser buying habit is just so great. I can’t stop.

Becky 

And I’d like to circle back to a question on daily journal to wrap things up daily journal and some of your holdings. This question comes in from Moshe sable who says in a previous shareholder meeting back around 2018 You spoke about BYD and said journal technologies is not quite BYD, but added that, by the way, it might work out just like BYD now a few years on Do you still find Gerald technologies can turn out similar to BYD

Charlie Munger 

but won’t be as fast I guarantee you, and I won’t be as great. I can also, frankly guarantee that BYD is one of the most remarkable venture capital drives excesses in the history of the world. He was the eighth son of a peasant. I had an older brother that right now is this young kid was kind of a younger brother was a genius. And the older brother sacrificed himself to get this peasant son into some good engineering school when he became an engineering professor and then an entrepreneur. How many times you get a story like that, and imagine buying a little bankrupt auto company in China and turning it into something that this year that can sell more electric cars than anybody else in the world at a time when electrical cars are hot. And it’s a remarkable story. But again, a very unusual human being one shampoo. And by the way, in his case, it wouldn’t have happened if one shampoo hadn’t been so unusual. Unusual how he’s got MGE is a damn genius. And he’s been thinking about the right things 17 hours a day all his life. He’s a workaholic, and he can do things that ordinary human beings can’t do.

Becky 

That the favourite stock you’ve ever purchased, BYD or Costco.

Charlie Munger 

Well, I would say yet, I’ve never helped do anything at Berkshire. That was as good as BYD. And I only did it once. Are $270,000 investment, there’s worth about a billion now or maybe nine. And that’s a pretty good rate of return.

Becky 

Yeah, I’m pretty good.

Charlie Munger 

Yeah, we don’t do it all the time. We do it once in a lifetime. Now we have to add some other successes too, but, but hardly anything like that. We made one better investment. You know what it was, we paid an executive recruiter to get us an employee and he came up with it chain. The return that He has made us compared to the amount we pay the executive recruiter, that was our best investment at Berkshire was was a big executive recruiting firm to get to get us onto the chain. But again, it only happened once.

Becky 

Now, that’s a quite an investment to Charlie, I just want to thank you for all your time today.

Charlie Munger 

All right, we’re all through I guess, and being so generous because our meeting is over and we’ll turn it back over here to do one more with you people. We’ve been at this quite a few years. So my best all of you.

Becky  Thank you. Thank you. Thank you, Steven. Thank you, Charlie.